I think judging by the posts on this instance, a lot of people here didn’t think that Russia would take military action against Ukraine. I was one of those people. Hell, even yesterday I wasn’t expecting to wake up to this. But I think it’s safe to say that that position was incorrect.

I’ve read opinions from communists on both sides now that it’s happened of whether the military action was justified or not, but it seems that few are reflecting on the fact that we were wrong about the prediction that there was not going to be military action. Personally, I’m very surprised that this happened. I’d be curious to hear your thoughts.

The Fake News MSM has been spamming claims that multiple wars were going to start tomorrow for many years. It is natural to disbelieve those claims.

Dr. Daniel Jackson
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5 mesi

the situation escalated so quickly that I don’t feel like I was wrong perse. I was working off of the public information available at the time, and based on that it seemed very unlikely Russia would take military actions against Ukraine.

I assumed that if the situation came to actual war, it would have been NATO who started it. We can debate until we’re blue in the face over who really started this. Was it Ukraine for attacking Donbas, or was it Russia for retaliating? Ultimately the answer to that doesn’t matter, and we won’t have a concise narrative on it for a long time. But, I will continue to critically support Russia against NATO until something gives me a damn good reason to stop.

On this situation, I’d much rather support Russia and possibly be proven wrong in the future, than support Ukraine knowing that their government is full of Neo-Nazis and is being propped up by NATO.

My head’s been filled with far too many thoughts to really have anything fully coherent, i’m not shocked or surprised, but this has developed while I was sleeping and it’s going to take a while to process.

Currently, I’m unsure if NATO is going to get directly involved in the conflict just yet, or if they’re either going to chicken out and let Russia do what they’ll do, or get into the conflict in a few weeks or months. All I’ve seen so far is that the UK and the US are going to push stronger sanctions, so I guess it’s still in the air if they’re going to consolidate this into the largest war of our lifetime or not.

But, for now, I’m just watching and waiting for more information from trustworthy sources. Only time will tell how justified any of our positions are, or how important this event is. So, it’s time to just sit back, put on some music, and wait.

@gnocchi
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35 mesi

who is a neo-nazi in the ukrainian government?

Azov Batallion just to name something off the top of my head

@gnocchi
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55 mesi

i use to live in ukraine during the revolution and i remember hearing about a group in maidan called svoboda or something like that. do you think that a lot of these ideologies are springing up in reaction to russia in general? it seems like the people who were involved in that stuff were struggling with unemployment and didnt have much to do all day, maybe got sucked into it because of feeling powerless

@peeonyou
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35 mesi

Well then, they can’t be real neonazis if they’re just doing it for feelings of power…

I mean nazis and communists both recruited from similar poor and working class neighborhoods, but one was backed by ultra-reactionary finance capital (nazis) and one was backed by the blood and sweat of the laboring masses (the communists) … so gnocchi is right, crisis leads to radicalization. it’s just that sometimes people are tricked into the wrong ideologies because of lack of socialist education

@gnocchi
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25 mesi

maybe. a lot of younger people in ukraine are really disillusioned from the USSR, i didnt meet anyone on a personal level who liked the idea of communism during that time. i think that if people feel angry and dont have a lot of opportunities, or maybe they are reactionary toward russia, i personally think that the alternative right and some neo nazi movements are in reaction to the left

But you have to be an special kind of stupid if you think that “Russian = Communist” 100% of the time. As if Russia came to existence in 1917. It’s like thinking current Chilean president HAS TO BE far-right because of Pinochet.

mykola
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15 mesi

yes these groups success is fueled by Russia’s aggression 100%

mykola
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25 mesi

the Wagner group is also neo-nazis, they are also integrated into the Russian military command structure, they even share the same training facilities with the Russian armed forces, it seems like Ukraine and Russia have even more in common

Azov Battalion are literally part of the national guard

A war between the two was pretty inevitable but I am shocked by how quickly it escalated. There would never be peace between the two until some sort of conflict had happened (imho) and seeing as how fast Russia is moving in I am hoping this will be a quick war with minimal civilian casualties but with NATO, EU, and America all beginning to ship weapons into Ukraine who knows…

It was one of those things where I think everyone was surprised when it happened. But I wasn’t surprised that it happened. Something had to give eventually, and it was clear the US and NATO weren’t going to stop poking the bear anytime soon.

Comrade Birb
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35 mesi

I guess for me it was wishful thinking and I am more surprised by the speed of escalation than really shocked by it. In retrospect there was no reason to believe that Ukrainian aggression against the DPR/LPR would stop. And now that I have been thinking some more about it, it was highly naive to expect any sort of diplomatic or peaceful resolution to this conflict that was smoldering for the past eight years. There simply was no interest in that from the western side. Ukraine was basically talking about the possibility of getting nukes again and there was a steady stream of foreign military aid coming into the country.

This whole situation just sucks and I hope that the Ukrainian people don’t have to suffer. Maybe this is actually what will bring stability back to the region… but right now I am not very optimistic about that.

@uthredii
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25 mesi

I did think it was fairly likely and I want to give my reasoning why:

The reasons I thought it was fairly likely:

  • massive military buildup on the border (this doesn’t prove anything it could just be a negotiation tactic)
  • many many many statements from US and UK intelligence clearly stating there would be a Russian invasion and it would target Kiev. (Of course they have lied in the past, but I could not see a reason they would lie now)
  • Russia’s damanding things in negotiations that would not be politically feasible to agree to. (This pointed to a delaying tactic and/or an attempt to justify the war)

My thoughts now:

  • The world has changed. There has not been a war in Europe for a long time. The longer this goes on the worse it will be for everyone.
  • A lot of people on the left in my country and internationally did not think an attack like this was a possibility. I think a lot of people on the left have spent so much time fight US imperialism that they forget that other countries can be imperialistic.
  • I still don’t understand what Putin hopes to gain.

Serbia and Croatia have something to tell you about “not been a war in Europe for a long time”.

And my guess about Putin’s reasons is that he knows he’s losing grip in the Russian population and needed a victory. Just like Argentina back in the 80s… and I hope there’s a similar result.

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