I think judging by the posts on this instance, a lot of people here didn’t think that Russia would take military action against Ukraine. I was one of those people. Hell, even yesterday I wasn’t expecting to wake up to this. But I think it’s safe to say that that position was incorrect.

I’ve read opinions from communists on both sides now that it’s happened of whether the military action was justified or not, but it seems that few are reflecting on the fact that we were wrong about the prediction that there was not going to be military action. Personally, I’m very surprised that this happened. I’d be curious to hear your thoughts.

  • uthredii
    53·
    3 years ago

    I did think it was fairly likely and I want to give my reasoning why:

    The reasons I thought it was fairly likely:

    • massive military buildup on the border (this doesn’t prove anything it could just be a negotiation tactic)
    • many many many statements from US and UK intelligence clearly stating there would be a Russian invasion and it would target Kiev. (Of course they have lied in the past, but I could not see a reason they would lie now)
    • Russia’s damanding things in negotiations that would not be politically feasible to agree to. (This pointed to a delaying tactic and/or an attempt to justify the war)

    My thoughts now:

    • The world has changed. There has not been a war in Europe for a long time. The longer this goes on the worse it will be for everyone.
    • A lot of people on the left in my country and internationally did not think an attack like this was a possibility. I think a lot of people on the left have spent so much time fight US imperialism that they forget that other countries can be imperialistic.
    • I still don’t understand what Putin hopes to gain.
    • bufalo73@lemmygrad.ml
      2·
      3 years ago

      Serbia and Croatia have something to tell you about “not been a war in Europe for a long time”.

      And my guess about Putin’s reasons is that he knows he’s losing grip in the Russian population and needed a victory. Just like Argentina back in the 80s… and I hope there’s a similar result.