Yeah. The problem with predicting timeframes is that all these gradual, quantitative changes result in qualitative changes (that is, sudden fractures) which make it difficult to give estimates. The gradual march of NATO’s army eastward in their military offensive against Russia over the last three decades, conquering Eastern Europe as they went, led to the sudden faultline of Ukraine activating. That there might have been an event like this at some point, in some place, between Russia and NATO was perhaps predictable - but the time and place and result was not as predictable. Similarly, in Palestine, that there might have been some existential battle between the Zionists and the Palestinians might have been predicted, but the time and place was not so (regardless of how much Israel copes that they actually saw the attack coming), especially because Hamas didn’t even tell their closest allies they were going to attack in order to preserve the surprise element as much as possible.

In geology, there’s two dueling concepts of uniformitarianism and catastrophism. The first assumes that the natural world around us is formed by gradual, small-scale processes, like the erosion of a beach and the slow construction of a mountain range. The second assumes that instead, short, large and violent events are more important - a meteorite crashing into the Earth, or a supervolcano erupting, or a massive flood. While uniformitarianism pretty handily won the debate overall, it would be folly to say that occasional violent events haven’t been extremely important. The meteorite that ended the dinosaurs fundamentally changed the Earth’s biosphere, and was essentially totally disconnected from the Earth system. Even inside the Earth system, when Lake Agassiz in North America released its massive quantities of water into the ocean about 10,000 years ago, global sea levels rose relatively quickly by up to 10 feet and disrupted oceanic currents and possibly resulted in temporary cooling, with all the knock-on impacts that had on the Earth and humanity.

World events work similarly to geology, though obviously on a much smaller timeframe. The world, its nations and corporations chug on, day to day. Sudden events from both outside and within the system - sometimes predicted in advance - can have massive and fairly unpredictable impacts and lead to major changes. The United States may not have been able to take its position as the quasi-hegemon if not for the World Wars, and while a great European conflict was predictable beforehand, all the effects it would go on to have - the fall of the Russian Empire and the rise of the USSR; massive changes in the Middle East; the eventual end of colonialism; etc - were much, much less predictable. If you were in 1910 and decided to merely plot the gradual effects that you expected capitalism to have on the world and said “Well, according to my model, capitalism will end in 2142 due to the tendency of the rate of profit to fall and an inability for imperialists to continue governing the world. It seems that the British Empire’s apex will continue for another few decades and perhaps steadily decline all the way to the 2100s, based on comparisons with the Roman Empire…” then you would be mighty shocked when just 10 years later, Europe was on the brink of a communist revolution.

So, for that reason, I find time estimates rather unhelpful. Like many others, I have talked about how the US probably has a few decades left as an empire - and that might very well be true - but this is assuming a gradual decline without sudden events. If you’d have told me just in 2020 that the US of three years from then would be unable to protect shipping routes through the Red Sea from Yemen despite having two/three aircraft carriers and various other naval assets throughout the region, I would have said that you’re bonkers. If you’d have told me that Russia was almost singlehandedly taking on the combined might of NATO in a proxy war and not only winning, but winning very convincingly, I would have said “There’s no way that they’re actually fighting without nukes dropping, and how could Russia resist NATO anyway, given all their problems?” If you’d have told me pre-October 7th that Israel would very soon be in the worst crisis in its history due to mostly the efforts of Gaza, I would have been like “Well, that’s a nice thought, but we can’t really expect the population of a concentration camp to be able to resist their prison guards to that extent.” God knows what sudden events will happen this year.

i think historians in the future will consider the conflicts in syria or ukraine the start of WW3

I think it’s possible, but I don’t think it’s likely.

World War isn’t in the Global South’s interests. Multipolarity is giving them opportunity to prosper.

World War might be the last option left for preserving Western Hegemony, but the decision on their side won’t be made in the interests of preserving Western Hegemony, it’ll be made in the interests of the capitalist class that controls it. And for them, war is a gamble. They’ll only gamble if they don’t see any other way.

And tbh I think this is why Israel is going off-script. They know the USA’s empire is shrinking, they know that the USA won’t be able to afford propping up a puppet in West Asia for much longer, and they know how the USA treats allies that have outlived their usefulness. The Zionists are gambling because they know they don’t get to keep their Zion if things continue to progress peacefully towards decolonization.

I think a revolution of sorts is visibly underway, though it’s not necessarily, strictly, a proletarian revolution (it does involve it in many regions, and it paves the way for it in other parts of the world).

It’s a revolution of nations against the system of Anglo-European, white supremacist, imperialist empire and hegemony- a revolution that, in the face of both the unparalleled evil of the crackerverse, and the empire’s decline- is seeing disenfranchised, exploited, and divided nations from across the global south and (parts of) eastern Europe- of all sorts, communists, liberals, Islamists, monarchies, even the proto-fascists like the Hindutvas- coming together for one beautiful common goal, to free the world (and primarily themselves) once and for all from the scourge of humanity that is western imperialism.

Whether world war will come out of that is another matter. I don’t really dare say one way or another, TBH- I’d like to hope things can reach a point where the west can be properly contained and their present state institutions dissolved if need be (IMO it will be needed for the west to ever rejoin the rest of humanity). I’m not so optimistic as to say that’s how things will go, though.

Maybe a war first and then a revolution. Or a revolution during the war.

If 2023 has shown us anything it is that the rest of the world can and will stand up against the West. And that The West isn’t the unbeatable force the pretend to be. With this much tension happening in the world, with Palestine and its surrounding allies, China again saying reunification with Taiwan is inevitable, China’s BRI in Africa and the rise of BRICS and of course Russia I do think we will see war between the west and others at some point soon.

Because with the rise of fascism in Europe and the US I don’t think they will go out without a fight.

I don’t know about revolution, but in the Middle East events are now unfolding that can’t be undone. Yemen, Iran and Israel are going to have a direct conflict in the very near future. Taiwan is happening eventually, but China is smart enough to wait and Ukraine/Russia is literally just us exhausting ourselves by giving all this equipment to a losing cause. It’s funny in an ironic way, when you think of how history is taught in the states I bet no one ever thought that the US would be the aggressor in WW3. But that’s what’s happening, the Biden admin isn’t “sleepwalking” into a World War this is 100% the plan.

I don’t think the kind of World War 3 most people envision with nukes flying everywhere is ever going to happen but I do think we’re in the beginning stages of a new major world conflict and it’s alarming.

I’m no fortune teller, but I’m certain decades will continue to happen in weeks. I just finished reading Socialism or Extinction and Ted Reese clearly shows how falling rate of profit is making the final crisis of capitalism highly likely in the coming years. The imperial core is incredibly weakened by its overgrowth of excess capital. They are getting increasingly desperate and the drive to war is actually deepening the crisis. There is no getting out of it for capitalism, and socialism is the only way out for the species. If we can keep getting more organized and spreading clear and consistent theory we can win. I highly recommend the book, I just wish there was a post Covid version. I’ve sent it to friends and family in the hope they’ll like it as much as I do. If people understand why socialism is the only real option they will choose it.

The core isn’t unified enough to wage war. It’s not unlikely there will actually be Inter-bourgeois conflict.

One more thing, SoE references multiple times that the Bolsheviks only had 8,000 members just months before the revolution. That is a comforting fact.

Yeah. If nothing else, the fact that so many of the dumbest, angriest and most armed people in “my” country are convinced of it makes it seem like a self-fufilling prophecy

big changes, most definitely.

socialists revolution, i don’t think so, as far as i know the only ongoing revolutionary process is in the philipines, meanwhile most of the world pcs are having a hard time rebuilding a movement, for example recently the brazilian communist party had a split

We’ll know by the end of the year. I’ll spare you all the reports from my astrologer friends, but I’d say it’s all going to hinge on the US elections this year, as well as the 50 other major elections worldwide. If the decrepit establishment of the US empire think that they could lose the election to a political outsider, I’d say we can expect a major false flag or a huge war to justify not surrendering their power. Probably against Iran but who knows.

These maniacs have it in their mind that they have to take all these nations down before 2030, when they reckon they’ll be too weak to fight them.

Failing that, I think they’ll fall back on their lessons from post-WWII. If enough nations are in ruins, then you can flood them with money, buy up all their companies, and have them utterly dependant on your exports. Hell, we can already see it happening with all these German companies and Taiwanese Semi-conductor industry.

Capitalism will consume itself. As socialists, we have be ready so that when it does, society will be turning to socialism as the solution and not fascism.

The unjust world economic structure has been shaken and a world war is inevitable.

In India we have casteism and hindutva fascism.

I would argue that the process has indeed started. We’re seeing US being humiliated on every front, and it’s becoming increasingly clear that the emperor has no clothes.

At the same time, China continues to go from strength to strength and BRICS is becoming a whole alternative economy.

I expect we’ll see a lot of amazing things happening where the grip of the empire has been loosened. We’re already seeing Africa starting to become decolonized, US being pushed out of the Middle East and from Latin America. These trends will only become stronger and reinforce themselves.

I do think that things in the west will keep getting worse before they start getting better. I completely agree that education on why the system is failing is and what to do about it are the key tasks for communists in the west right now.

Another important bit of education is to help deprogram people from hating existing socialist states like China. It’s going to be crucially important to be able to point to these as successes of socialism to be learned from as opposed to be feared.