Written by Eric Zuesse One can’t evaluate whether Putin’s campaign in Ukraine is succeeding without first knowing what its OBJECTIVES were. In order...
Mediocre article. Poor analysis. Places way too much importance on what westerners think. What matters is the material reality. Economic and military facts on the ground. Economically Russia and China are winning. The west is going into a death spiral of inflation and recession. Militarily the outcome of the war is a foregone conclusion unless NATO directly intervenes, which they are too scared to do. Finland and Sweden, even if they do join NATO, a crumbling organization whose ever widening cracks have only temporarily been papered over with propaganda driven hysteria which does nothing to change the objectively diverging interests of Europe and the US, are of little importance.
Also, the idea that Putin would not have been perceived as the aggressor if only he waited for Kiev to make the first move and launch their planned all out assault on Donbass is incredibly naive. That scenario is exactly what the US had been setting up for and priming westerners to believe would represent a “Russian invasion of Ukraine” if and when Russia would be forced to intervene to save Donetsk and Lugansk. That is why they blasted “Russia is about to invade Ukraine” propaganda all over the media in the preceding months because they knew Ukraine was preparing to make a move that would force a reaction.
There is nothing that Russia could have done short of completely abandoning ethnic Russians in Ukraine to genocide and ethnic cleansing to not be seen as the aggressor. Furthermore, the proposal to allow an all out slaughter of ethnic Russians to begin in Donbass before intervening just to maybe score a minor propaganda win with westerners is deeply cynical, utterly morally revolting. Militarily it is also an incredibly stupid thing to do to allow the enemy to strike first and force the battle to occur at the time and place of their choosing.
The talk about Finland and Sweden joining NATO is essentially a matter of formality, for many practical purposes these countries were already deeply integrated into the Atlanticist framework, as part of the EU and both having extensive military cooperation with NATO countries. They are also much smaller countries than Ukraine population wise, and not nearly as much of a strategic threat to Russia’s national security. It is far easier to defend against a NATO strike from that direction. They are a consolation prize. The loss of their pet project in Ukraine is a big deal for the US and EU, they are furious about it as seen by their extreme, self-harming reactions.
Considering that China is 100% on Russia’s side and that most of the Global South continues to do business as usual with them, considering that Russia is self-sufficient in food and energy, that inflation is not being experienced in those essential daily necessities but only in imported goods while the west is having the biggest problems in precisely those essential areas, considering that the value of the Ruble has come back to pre Operation Z levels, that much of Europe has no choice but to continue to buy essential Russian exports like gas (which they will have to do more and more in Rubles), and that almost a dozen countries have now signed up in one form or another to Russia and China’s alternative to the SWIFT payment transfer system… Well i’d say things are looking good and will only get better for Russia the longer this goes on.
Time is on Russia’s side, the sanctions frontloaded all the damage hoping to cause an immediate collapse, shock and awe style, which did not work and now Russia is starting to fill the gaps left by western companies in their market with either domestic or Chinese/Indian production. This will have the effect of making Russia stronger, more self-reliant and more resillient just as the 2014 sanctions did. While at the same time things in the west will only get worse, a massive economic crisis is already showing signs of emerging, in economies severely weakened by two years of pandemic mismanagement that have now committed economic suicide by cutting themselves off from one of the largest suppliers of food, raw materials and energy, not to mention destroying international trust in the Dollar hegemony and Western financial system with their foolish decision to rob Russia’s Central Bank.
Of course, there is wisdom in what you say as well, we should not rush to conclusions, only time will tell what the ultimate result will be, and that will depend in large part by the decisions Russia takes. What the west does from now on is of little importance, but if Russia continues to listen to its more liberal economists that could risk undermining its successes so far. Now is the time for Russia to make bold, radical moves. They have a window of opportunity now that the population is in a nationalistic mood, and would support a daring experiment in adopting a new economic paradigm while many oligarchs have largely been neutered by the western sanctions which took away their foreign wealth and thereby crippled their political power in Russia, getting rid of a thorn in Putin’s side.
Mediocre article. Poor analysis. Places way too much importance on what westerners think. What matters is the material reality. Economic and military facts on the ground. Economically Russia and China are winning. The west is going into a death spiral of inflation and recession. Militarily the outcome of the war is a foregone conclusion unless NATO directly intervenes, which they are too scared to do. Finland and Sweden, even if they do join NATO, a crumbling organization whose ever widening cracks have only temporarily been papered over with propaganda driven hysteria which does nothing to change the objectively diverging interests of Europe and the US, are of little importance.
Also, the idea that Putin would not have been perceived as the aggressor if only he waited for Kiev to make the first move and launch their planned all out assault on Donbass is incredibly naive. That scenario is exactly what the US had been setting up for and priming westerners to believe would represent a “Russian invasion of Ukraine” if and when Russia would be forced to intervene to save Donetsk and Lugansk. That is why they blasted “Russia is about to invade Ukraine” propaganda all over the media in the preceding months because they knew Ukraine was preparing to make a move that would force a reaction.
There is nothing that Russia could have done short of completely abandoning ethnic Russians in Ukraine to genocide and ethnic cleansing to not be seen as the aggressor. Furthermore, the proposal to allow an all out slaughter of ethnic Russians to begin in Donbass before intervening just to maybe score a minor propaganda win with westerners is deeply cynical, utterly morally revolting. Militarily it is also an incredibly stupid thing to do to allow the enemy to strike first and force the battle to occur at the time and place of their choosing.
The talk about Finland and Sweden joining NATO is essentially a matter of formality, for many practical purposes these countries were already deeply integrated into the Atlanticist framework, as part of the EU and both having extensive military cooperation with NATO countries. They are also much smaller countries than Ukraine population wise, and not nearly as much of a strategic threat to Russia’s national security. It is far easier to defend against a NATO strike from that direction. They are a consolation prize. The loss of their pet project in Ukraine is a big deal for the US and EU, they are furious about it as seen by their extreme, self-harming reactions.
Don’t you think it’s too early for a conclusion like this? China sure, I’ll concede, but Russia?
Considering that China is 100% on Russia’s side and that most of the Global South continues to do business as usual with them, considering that Russia is self-sufficient in food and energy, that inflation is not being experienced in those essential daily necessities but only in imported goods while the west is having the biggest problems in precisely those essential areas, considering that the value of the Ruble has come back to pre Operation Z levels, that much of Europe has no choice but to continue to buy essential Russian exports like gas (which they will have to do more and more in Rubles), and that almost a dozen countries have now signed up in one form or another to Russia and China’s alternative to the SWIFT payment transfer system… Well i’d say things are looking good and will only get better for Russia the longer this goes on.
Time is on Russia’s side, the sanctions frontloaded all the damage hoping to cause an immediate collapse, shock and awe style, which did not work and now Russia is starting to fill the gaps left by western companies in their market with either domestic or Chinese/Indian production. This will have the effect of making Russia stronger, more self-reliant and more resillient just as the 2014 sanctions did. While at the same time things in the west will only get worse, a massive economic crisis is already showing signs of emerging, in economies severely weakened by two years of pandemic mismanagement that have now committed economic suicide by cutting themselves off from one of the largest suppliers of food, raw materials and energy, not to mention destroying international trust in the Dollar hegemony and Western financial system with their foolish decision to rob Russia’s Central Bank.
Of course, there is wisdom in what you say as well, we should not rush to conclusions, only time will tell what the ultimate result will be, and that will depend in large part by the decisions Russia takes. What the west does from now on is of little importance, but if Russia continues to listen to its more liberal economists that could risk undermining its successes so far. Now is the time for Russia to make bold, radical moves. They have a window of opportunity now that the population is in a nationalistic mood, and would support a daring experiment in adopting a new economic paradigm while many oligarchs have largely been neutered by the western sanctions which took away their foreign wealth and thereby crippled their political power in Russia, getting rid of a thorn in Putin’s side.