If Russia lost over a 1000 tanks since February the war would’ve been long over.
Why so? Putin has gambled big on this war as part of the “Greater Russia” idea. It is clear now that Russia cannot overthrow the Ukrainian government, but they want to at least destabilize Ukraine and force it into an uncomfortable bargaining position. Hence reallocating forces to the east. Putin’s rule rests largely on satisfying Russian nationalists and looking tough. Flat out loosing a war could mean loosing more than his position of power. It could mean a one way ticket out a high window.
I’m not sure what makes it clear to you that Russia cannot overthrow the government in Ukraine. The reality of the situation is that Ukraine is being ground down militarily, and the west is losing the economic war with Russia. Russia is currently fighting this war with a very small percentage of its overall military capacity, and they haven’t even bothered to call for general mobilization. Russia just committed 50k troops to doing war games with China and India. This underscores that the conflict in Ukraine isn’t exactly straining their military capacity.
On the other hand, Ukraine lost its military industrial capacity back in March by their own admission. They’re not able to replenish their military losses and rely on supplies from the west that’s now making NATO stocks dangerously low. Arms packages from the west have been steadily reduced as a result, and this offensive looks like a desperate gamble to maintain collapsing support for the war in the west.
If anything, this has gone much better than even Russia could’ve predicted. Europe is now collapsing economically, and it’s not even winter yet. We’re seeing massive strikes and protests happening in many European countries, and these will only grow going forward. Meanwhile, prices in Russia remain stable, and inflation is slowing down with prices on essentials like food, energy, and fuel remaining low. Originally, Russia wanted a buffer from NATO in Ukraine, now it’s looking probable that NATO will collapse entirely within a few years.
Anybody with a couple of brain cells to bang together understands that it’s relative economic damage between the west and Russia that matters. While Russia relies on nice to have things from the west like iPhones and Starbucks, the west relies on bare essentials like food and energy. If shit hits the fan in Russia next year, then it’s hitting the fan on a much bigger scale in the west as well.
It’s also absolutely fantastical to think that Russia can’t replace whatever it is relies on from the west with equivalent products from China and India which constitute world’s major manufacturing hubs.
Russia has already gone through two large economic crises in the 90s and in 2014. There is no indication that this crisis will be any worse than that and people in Russia know what to expect. On the other hand, people in Europe have not experienced anything of the sort since WW2, and European leadership took no steps to prepare for the crisis foolishly thinking that Russia would collapse within a month of western sanctions.
Russia is self sufficient in food, energy, and all the essential manufacturing. There’s literally nothing Russia imports from the west that can’t and isn’t already being replaced. Chinese exports to Russia have exploded already. Whether Russia wants to be dependent on China and India or not is beside the point, which is that they are doing it.
Meanwhile, Europe has no readily available alternative to cheap energy, fertilizer, and food that was imported from Russia. The only energy solution for Europe is to create alternative energy infrastructure such as mass nuclear, this will take years to do and require massive amounts of energy to implement. How fertilizer and food will be replaced remains unclear as well.
Massive strikes and protests are already happening in many countries such as UK, Czech republic, France, Italy, and Germany. Public discontent is growing rapidly, and will only get worse come winter. Turns out putting Ukrainian flags in your social media bio is different level of commitment from freezing and starving in the winter.
Why so? Putin has gambled big on this war as part of the “Greater Russia” idea. It is clear now that Russia cannot overthrow the Ukrainian government, but they want to at least destabilize Ukraine and force it into an uncomfortable bargaining position. Hence reallocating forces to the east. Putin’s rule rests largely on satisfying Russian nationalists and looking tough. Flat out loosing a war could mean loosing more than his position of power. It could mean a one way ticket out a high window.
I’m not sure what makes it clear to you that Russia cannot overthrow the government in Ukraine. The reality of the situation is that Ukraine is being ground down militarily, and the west is losing the economic war with Russia. Russia is currently fighting this war with a very small percentage of its overall military capacity, and they haven’t even bothered to call for general mobilization. Russia just committed 50k troops to doing war games with China and India. This underscores that the conflict in Ukraine isn’t exactly straining their military capacity.
On the other hand, Ukraine lost its military industrial capacity back in March by their own admission. They’re not able to replenish their military losses and rely on supplies from the west that’s now making NATO stocks dangerously low. Arms packages from the west have been steadily reduced as a result, and this offensive looks like a desperate gamble to maintain collapsing support for the war in the west.
If anything, this has gone much better than even Russia could’ve predicted. Europe is now collapsing economically, and it’s not even winter yet. We’re seeing massive strikes and protests happening in many European countries, and these will only grow going forward. Meanwhile, prices in Russia remain stable, and inflation is slowing down with prices on essentials like food, energy, and fuel remaining low. Originally, Russia wanted a buffer from NATO in Ukraine, now it’s looking probable that NATO will collapse entirely within a few years.
deleted by creator
Anybody with a couple of brain cells to bang together understands that it’s relative economic damage between the west and Russia that matters. While Russia relies on nice to have things from the west like iPhones and Starbucks, the west relies on bare essentials like food and energy. If shit hits the fan in Russia next year, then it’s hitting the fan on a much bigger scale in the west as well.
It’s also absolutely fantastical to think that Russia can’t replace whatever it is relies on from the west with equivalent products from China and India which constitute world’s major manufacturing hubs.
Russia has already gone through two large economic crises in the 90s and in 2014. There is no indication that this crisis will be any worse than that and people in Russia know what to expect. On the other hand, people in Europe have not experienced anything of the sort since WW2, and European leadership took no steps to prepare for the crisis foolishly thinking that Russia would collapse within a month of western sanctions.
deleted by creator
Russia is self sufficient in food, energy, and all the essential manufacturing. There’s literally nothing Russia imports from the west that can’t and isn’t already being replaced. Chinese exports to Russia have exploded already. Whether Russia wants to be dependent on China and India or not is beside the point, which is that they are doing it.
Meanwhile, Europe has no readily available alternative to cheap energy, fertilizer, and food that was imported from Russia. The only energy solution for Europe is to create alternative energy infrastructure such as mass nuclear, this will take years to do and require massive amounts of energy to implement. How fertilizer and food will be replaced remains unclear as well.
Massive strikes and protests are already happening in many countries such as UK, Czech republic, France, Italy, and Germany. Public discontent is growing rapidly, and will only get worse come winter. Turns out putting Ukrainian flags in your social media bio is different level of commitment from freezing and starving in the winter.
deleted by creator
Seems like that’s rapidly becoming a minority opinion. And of course, Europe is already bending the knee to US quite willingly.
deleted by creator