I mean in terms of percentages.
And I don’t necessarily mean three full terms. 2.5 terms or 2.1 terms or anything nontrivially more than 2 (like, 10 minutes more doesn’t count) would qualify.
I mean in terms of percentages.
And I don’t necessarily mean three full terms. 2.5 terms or 2.1 terms or anything nontrivially more than 2 (like, 10 minutes more doesn’t count) would qualify.
Metaculus also says 7%.
Fortunately, there’s no way something so unlikely as 7% could realistically happen. The odds would be a thousand to one.