I have seen a few mentions of these recent Pentagon leaks about Ukraine’s “spring counter-offensive” in the comments here so i gather that there are some comrades that have an interest for this sort of thing. From what i can tell this article does a good job summing up the most relevant big picture information that can be learned from these documents.
Warning: the author has thrown in a queerphobic “joke” for absolutely no reason which is very annoying and detracts from an otherwise professional piece.
It’s a long read, so to sum up;
Ukraine doesn’t have enough munitions or vehicles to counter Russian numbers. Ukraine isn’t communicating with DC - leading to NATO being unable to catalogue the conflict accurately. DC is using Ukraine’s propaganda numbers from a sheer lack of knowledge while having meticulous & exact numbers for Russian forces.
all-in-all Ukraine lacks any real ability to continue for much longer, while Russia doesn’t seem to have any end in sight. It doesn’t provide estimates for how much longer the war will last (as far as I can see) but there’s clearly no long-term planning on the side of NATO. What may have started as an effort by NATO to weaken Russia has become an Uno reverse card, instead draining their stockpiles for a government that gives nothing of note in return.
in my very unprofessional opinion, based on what this report says, perhaps the war will end sometime either in the summer or the fall. I can’t see a reality where Ukraine’s able to keep up after this spring.
I would caution about making predictions as to when the war will end. There are too many factors that could go either way. If Ukraine’s “counter-offensive” is decisively defeated and if the Russian MoD decides to launch its own offensive, then yes it is not unlikely that we will see it end by winter. If on the other hand Ukraine manages to preserve a part of its combat strength, their morale does not collapse and Western aid keeps trickling in, they may have just enough to keep dragging this out for another year or two, though the pace will accelerate as their losses mount.
I would not be surprised if Russia keeps this glacial pace of advance going for quite a while longer than most people would expect, because it seems to me that their first priority is not ending the conflict but achieving their larger geopolitical goals, which is the terminal weakening of NATO such that it will either dissolve or be forced to retreat to 1997 borders.
The thing to understand is that somehow - and this will be an interesting thing for future historians to research and try and figure out how the imperialists miscalculated so badly - Russia has managed to “play a Uno reverse card” and turn Ukraine into a quagmire and a black hole of resources, not for Russia as Washington had planned, but for the collective West.
This conflict is not only weakening the whole of NATO but has become an obsession for Washington and drawn all of their attention there to the detriment of all of their other plots around the world, including in the middle east and possibly even Taiwan. We see that there is a faction of the neocon establishment that desperately wants to end the Ukraine misadventure so they can focus on Taiwan instead, but they are simply unable to find a way to extricate themselves and instead are drawn deeper and deeper in.
Using a metaphor that the libs will understand we can say the “eye of Sauron” is fixed on Ukraine and unable to look away. The West has trapped itself by its rhetoric and by entangling itself in this conflict to the point where the loss of Ukraine would be a catastrophic defeat for NATO. They have fallen victim to the sunk cost fallacy and they just have to double down on a losing bet.
This has opened up the board for the anti-hegemonic forces of the world that are interested in replacing the post-1991 unipolar US/Western dominated global system with a multipolar one to really start putting all the pieces in place. We see increasing de-dollarization in international trade, we see anti-hegemonic blocs like the BRICS and the SCO expanding, a lot of very exciting things are happening and a big part of the reason why is precisely because Washington is neglecting so many of the other fronts.
As cynical as it sounds and as awful as it is to the innocent people caught up in this conflict, Russia’s strategic calculus may be that it is beneficial for their long term plans to keep going at the current pace and not do anything too spectacular.
One can only hope this ruins neocon plans to start WW3 over Taiwan.
It may. Or it may accelerate those plans. Only time will tell. I still believe the PRC’s patience will prevail and they will eventually achieve peaceful reunification.
When the end approaches for Ukraine, and when the US imperialists finally accept it’s coming, that’s when things will get very dangerous. There’s no telling what the US might do to prolong the conflict, provoke Russia into doing something stupid, or just strike out in sheer desperation to salvage some kind of advantage.
The leadership in the West (as the recent EU top official appointments and the NATO head appointment show) is ruled by people who are primarily fanatic anti-Russians. Their decisions are based on sentiment instead of logic. So WW3 might start anyway.
DC is using Ukraine’s propaganda numbers from a sheer lack of knowledge while having meticulous & exact numbers for Russian forces
Wonder how that works though. Why aren’t they able to asses Ukraine’s forces with the same accuracy as the Russian forces.
Maybe they are able to but there is political pressure to tell the leaders in Washington what they want to hear rather than what is true. Or maybe since these are plans that are shared with the Ukrainians they need to keep pretending like they believe their bullshit so the clowns in Kiev don’t get offended. Or maybe they really aren’t able to because they don’t have their own independent intel sources in Ukraine anymore since they basically completely control the Kiev regime anyway, so they thought why bother to spend money on their own intel network when they can use Kiev’s which the CIA spent eight years building up.
I expect the counteroffensive will be the breaking point. This is the last big throw for Ukraine. The west managed to put together a hodgepodge of weapons for Ukraine, and do a rapid training course for the conscripts. They’re going to try to make some breakthrough that can be spun by western media as a big success.
However, as the leak alludes, the prospects of this happening are slim to none. The most likely scenario is that Ukraine makes some small gains and loses most of their available forces in the process. At that point the west will no longer be able to pull together enough resources to build yet another army for Ukraine.
On top of all that, US election campaigning is starting and the war is not popular in US any longer. Last poll I saw said that over 40% of people wanted the war to end even if it meant Ukraine giving up territory. Continuing to pour unlimited money into this will be impossible politically with republicans starting to make a connection between war spending and collapsing economy in US. Once US pulls money from Ukraine then the whole thing will end overnight.
Given all that, I think the war ending by fall is a very likely scenario.
I want you to be right (war ending sometime soon this year), but I just read this:
https://www.rt.com/russia/595831-heres-russias-plan-for-ukraine/
and is not really sure the Russians will go for it…
Update: Since the original leak was uncovered various western mainstream media outlets, many with known ties to intelligence agencies, have started to “discover” more documents that nobody else has seen but which they claim come from the same source. Be very skeptical of anything that they try to associate with the original leaked documents, whatever else they add on is very likely to be part of a damage control operation to turn the initial leak into an opportunity to disseminate propaganda and disinformation, and to distract from the most damaging revelations of the originals.
As for the question of the authenticity of the original leaked documents, i have given my views on this in a comment on another post.
The leaks have Nafo and the Ukranian flags in disarray. They have no idea how to spin this.
For those interested in the minutiae, here is an even more detailed breakdown.
Thank you for sharing, really appreciate this analysis. I was convinced it was a genuine leak but as the week has gone on I’ve become less sure.
This seems to be unavailable now. Does anyone have an archive?
luckily someone archived it
Thank you!
no problem, this is going to be a recurring issue unless Tw*tter reverses recent policy changes
https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/620436462
Chinese blog post that contains higher quality versions of the leaked documents and the poster’s own analysis of the leak.
