(This isn’t a rant against your comment. It is a rant. But more of a general rant, following from your mention of the 2025 cut-off date.)
Do you think it really is two years. I’m no tactician, but considering how long were the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, and the length of the war in Ukraine, the US would achieve very little in China in 21 months.
Even if a war broke out tomorrow, China is unlikely to put it’s military tech plan on hold just to be polite. The only thing that’s going to stop China now is nuking all the major cities. If the US does that while somehow preventing China from doing the same to the US, then Russia and the DPRK are likely to nuke the US anyway, because they’ll know that they’re next and all restraint goes out the window at that point.
Tbh I think this 2025 figure is just US capital trying to shore up share prices. They already know they’ve been left dead in the water. They’re just committed to the same old pretend-everything’s-okay routine while secretly preparing to ride out the next crisis.
The difference this time is that there is no next time for capital. Once US imperialism falls, there won’t be another imperialism as the CPC is ready to fill the vacuum. If e.g. Germany, France, or the UK try to step up, they’ll be laughed at without the US military in the background. All those failed revolutions in the global south will suddenly succeed without the US standing guard.
The best the capitalists can hope for is that Xi dies and China unravels itself in the same way as Alexander the Great’s empire. I give China a lot more credit than that, though.
Oh I agree for the most part. I think the 2025 date, while being originally predicted back in 2015,is more of a “this is the last possible chance the US would have at going toe to toe” of sorts. I don’t think anyone wins at this point but as 2025 closes in I think it goes from MAD to the US fails completely as Chinas capabilities go into “We can now completely (or at least near completely) put down any initial assault you try and will own the retaliation. We no longer have to play nice.”
The best the capitalists can hope for is that Xi dies and China unravels itself in the same way as Alexander the Great’s empire. I give China a lot more credit than that, though.
Yeah China has had plenty of stable elections and Xi’s replacement will likely come to power peacefully and do just fine. The CPC is pretty stable internally, more so than either mainstream US party internally, which are both experiencing a serious identity crisis.
(This isn’t a rant against your comment. It is a rant. But more of a general rant, following from your mention of the 2025 cut-off date.)
Do you think it really is two years. I’m no tactician, but considering how long were the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, and the length of the war in Ukraine, the US would achieve very little in China in 21 months.
Even if a war broke out tomorrow, China is unlikely to put it’s military tech plan on hold just to be polite. The only thing that’s going to stop China now is nuking all the major cities. If the US does that while somehow preventing China from doing the same to the US, then Russia and the DPRK are likely to nuke the US anyway, because they’ll know that they’re next and all restraint goes out the window at that point.
Tbh I think this 2025 figure is just US capital trying to shore up share prices. They already know they’ve been left dead in the water. They’re just committed to the same old pretend-everything’s-okay routine while secretly preparing to ride out the next crisis.
The difference this time is that there is no next time for capital. Once US imperialism falls, there won’t be another imperialism as the CPC is ready to fill the vacuum. If e.g. Germany, France, or the UK try to step up, they’ll be laughed at without the US military in the background. All those failed revolutions in the global south will suddenly succeed without the US standing guard.
The best the capitalists can hope for is that Xi dies and China unravels itself in the same way as Alexander the Great’s empire. I give China a lot more credit than that, though.
Oh I agree for the most part. I think the 2025 date, while being originally predicted back in 2015,is more of a “this is the last possible chance the US would have at going toe to toe” of sorts. I don’t think anyone wins at this point but as 2025 closes in I think it goes from MAD to the US fails completely as Chinas capabilities go into “We can now completely (or at least near completely) put down any initial assault you try and will own the retaliation. We no longer have to play nice.”
Yeah China has had plenty of stable elections and Xi’s replacement will likely come to power peacefully and do just fine. The CPC is pretty stable internally, more so than either mainstream US party internally, which are both experiencing a serious identity crisis.