I’m a bit skeptical. To be honest throughout this certain voices in the western left have been regularly wrong about Ukraine. Those making strong calls anyways. A lot of wish-casting and I admit I engaged in a bit of it myself.
We can’t help but hope for fascists to lose and for the west to have egg on its face but Russia is not the soviet union sadly and they’ve misjudged the situation from the start, thinking they could force a treaty with minimal commitment was a horrible tactical error that has caused a lot of suffering and allowed the Ukrainians a stronger position to bounce back from.
First it was Russia wouldn’t actually invade and the US was just blowing smoke up everyone’s ass with their screaming about it. Then it was the Russians would steamroll them and it would be over withing 90 days, then it was that the Ukrainian army was going to be encircled and effectively destroyed and then mopped up in summer. And at various points that Europe would bend the knee to Russia, buck Washington, winter would force them to submit, etc. But they’ve only doubled and tripled down because liberalism was fully colonized their senses and besides the fact that impoverishing the masses and transferring their wealth upwards via “inflation” and energy costs is a double benefit to the capitalists made oh so sweet by the fact they get to do so while pointing the finger at a dehumanized enemy people and state as to blame.
The peace being floated by the officials quoted is I think probably unacceptable to Russia. They’ve legally integrated Donbass and other territories into Russia proper and this peace they call for would mean giving those places up and letting their people be brutalized by fascist terrorists. Certainly it would be equal to a humiliating loss to Russia and a win for the west and fascists if they conceded on the points of those territories being returned to Ukraine. It would also be difficult as the resistance fighters in those places aren’t going to quietly lay down their weapons and wait for the fascists to roll up, abduct and torture them to death. Russia could yet betray those people and acquiesce to these terms but this may just be a tact by the west to try and make Russia look unreasonable to steel the resolve of their populace and political class for more war.
This whole conflict has been a series of deceptions by the west. The west admits the accords of 2014 were a chance to give Ukraine time to build a military to challenge Russia. The peace negotiations a few months in by Ukraine were a feint and achieved good things for them while hurting Russian momentum. If Russia stops at anything short of toppling the Kiev regime (or at minimum requiring it disarm and renounce belligerency and the right to maintain a military), I give a 80% chance this war will just start back up again in a few years to a decade at most after NATO has re-armed Ukraine to the teeth for round two and that will go even worse for Russia. (Of course they could luck out and a global recession plus successful de-dollarization could broadside the west and bog them down enough that they can’t really do this but that’s a big if). General mobilization or straight up conceding defeat will be likely under such a circumstance and Putin may become unpopular enough that he can be replaced by a puppet from the west carefully maneuvered into place. A Yeltsin 2.0.
This is the grand strategy and the hope I think for the western planners, it’s about getting Russia on the anti-China program. If they get them in then China is in trouble. US-Anglo hegemony and subjugation of Africa/global south will continue probably for the rest of this century and China will have a long march of a different kind. To be frank if they got a committed enough puppet I’d be very worried they’d use them to nuke China. Hoping that Russia would be sacrificed and China ruined, thus, securing capitalist exploitation and hegemony for some time to come and eliminating a great deal of people and capital to allow growth in the wake of it.
Of course, the west could be about to crash and burn. Who knows. But I think it unwise to underestimate our enemies. Better to over-estimate and be pleasantly surprised if wrong.
I think what this comes down to is the economy and logistics. Russia tried to make Ukraine see sense for seven months, and they avoided attacking Ukrainian infrastructure during that time. If Russia kept going like that then the war could drag on indefinitely. However, after the Crimean bridge attacks, Russia finally decided to treat this as an actual war and started dismantling the infrastructure.
This is a whole different game now because people simply can’t live in large cities without water and electricity. Trains can’t run because they rely on the power grid. Factories can’t operate. Shops can’t stay open. And so forth. The country is becoming unlivable.
The west simply can’t replace what Ukraine is losing fast enough. It’s much easier for Russia to destroy things in Ukraine then for the west to build these things, ship them to Ukraine, and install them there. It takes seconds to destroy stuff and months to years to rebuild.
Ukrainian army cannot operate without logistics and support. Troops need food water, ammo, clothing, and medical supplies. Machinery needs fuel, spare parts, repair shops, etc. The army needs communication networks to operate cohesively. All these things disappear with the infrastructure being dismantled.
If you look at the situation in a sober way it’s very obvious that things are going horribly wrong for the west, and truth is starting to seep into the propaganda bubble western media created.
it’s very obvious that things are going horribly wrong for the west
Can’t say I agree with this assessment, given that, as you have said:
The country is becoming unlivable
US and Uk have been screeching about how Russia/Putin’s goal is “genocide” for ages now. It fits the narrative perfectly.
The west simply can’t replace what Ukraine is losing fast enough. It’s much easier for Russia to destroy things in Ukraine then for the west to build these things, ship them to Ukraine, and install them there. It takes seconds to destroy stuff and months to years to rebuild.
If the west had any inclination to rebuild at all. Which I doubt. The goal seems to be to destroy whatever cold remains of the USSR’s corpse still exist. And as a bonus- create chaos in Europe. Both goals seem to be close to achieved.
US and Uk have been screeching about how Russia/Putin’s goal is “genocide” for ages now. It fits the narrative perfectly.
That’s not going to matter in the slightest. What’s going to matter is the flood of Ukrainian refugees that Europe is going to have to accommodate. Russia is not going to repair its reputation with the west. People here already think the worst about Russia, so more PR victories aren’t really going to change anything.
It’s the collapse of material conditions that really matters now. Europe is about to have a crisis that’s comparable to what happened in Russia back in the 90s, and people in Europe aren’t even remotely prepared for that.
And I’m not talking about rebuilding. I’m talking about keeping Ukraine functional enough to continue engaging in the war. This project is becoming too costly for the west.
That’s not going to matter in the slightest. What’s going to matter is the flood of Ukrainian refugees that Europe is going to have to accommodate.
While yes, it’s not at all a negative for the bourgeoisie to suddenly have an influx of fascist minded people (and the longer the Ukraine conflict goes on, the more clear it is just how many Ukrainians are deeply sympathetic to fascism if not outright holding viciously reactionary pro-Nazi belief systems themselves) into their midst.
Look at Canada and all the Ukrainian “refugees” who set up CIA monuments to Nazis there. To some degree the US might want to import these types of people to either Europe as insurance against an independent EU uniting with China or trying to get back on good terms with Russia or into the US itself to operate freely to purge enemies of the empire and scapegoats alike.
Europe was upset by the Syrian crisis because those were brown Muslim people. They will not have the same issue at all culturally with precious whites who are as racist as they are. It might strain logistics in certain places but they can just let a certain amount starve or exist on the edges for cheap under the table labor.
I question how much of the country’s infrastructure is really being destroyed I guess. Are the Russians targeting the far west beyond maybe rail lines supplying western weapons shipments? Or just the east and center that directly impacts supply lines and the central government in Kiev? Russian media I’ve seen doesn’t say, western media just sobs about ‘the humanity’ and doesn’t give specifics so I really don’t know.
Ukrainian fascists also happen to be nationalist, and they don’t get along with people in the countries they’re pouring into. Poland is a perfect example of that. Meanwhile, with the dire economic situation in Europe, having a bunch more people straining the system makes people of those countries resentful of Ukrainians in turn. This is already starting to create tensions, and these will only grow.
Another factor is that the Ukrainian fascists are now well armed and ready to enact violence and terrorism in the countries they move to. We’ve already seen this happen in Italy, and that’s just the start.
Meanwhile, pretty much all of the power production and distribution is being dismantled in Ukraine, and trains in Ukraine run on electric power. However, dismantling the power grid affects pretty much all operations in the country. It’s not possible for large cities to operate without electricity.
Currently, more than half the power grid in Ukraine is down, and this is a cumulative problem. Russia has been doing strikes of around a hundred missiles every week, sometimes multiple times a week. They attack the power grid, wait for Ukraine to start repairs, and then attack again.
The west is not able to replace what’s being destroyed nearly at the same rate. You can’t just build things like transformers overnight.
Fair enough. Though they can use gas-powered trucks to transport weapons supplies so it won’t stop the war effort necessarily (I do grant this means their economy completely collapses but it didn’t have far to go at this point). Those are not practical to target from afar, you need loitering air assets which Russia can’t deploy because the country is swarming with man-pads and other anti-air systems.
What you seem to be saying is that Europe’s problems from this will be the real pressure. I don’t disagree but I also think it’s not something that’s going to force a change in the next year. I think that’s a pressure that the Europeans respond to after another year maybe and by that point I maintain one of 4 things has happened and the result is locked in:
Quagmire. Russia isn’t making any progress, the Ukrainians however aren’t making gains of any meaning either and both sides are just fighting and inflicting losses of lives and treasure. This is a quagmire and the west effectively wins, certainly the US wins even if Europe loses (another US win).
Ukrainian win. Russia concedes territories taken since 2022, gets to keep Crimea but is kicked out and sanctions kept on them while left humiliated internally and externally by a war that apparently gained them nothing.
Russian victory. Ukraine is forced to accept Russian terms, ceasefire is arranged, Russia gets to keep the territories that voted to join it, NATO sells itself as the one that stopped Russia from taking all of Ukraine and Russia gets to claim they eliminated the threat despite many Nazis remaining and the fascism problem probably growing worse.
Russia advances and topples the central government in Kiev, insurgency may or may not continue for years or Russia may achieve outright victory, complete acceptance of their terms by reformed new government and an amended constitution for Ukraine. This is the only situation where maybe the Nazi problem is slightly tempered and tamped down.
Remember, Europe is not a democracy. The people being upset, being subject to terrorist attacks doesn’t mean their governments will fix it. They live in a DotB and one subjugated to American/Atlantic bourgeoisie and THEIR interests not even necessarily their own national ones. I don’t think they’ll endure it forever obviously as they don’t want populist movements building and growing in power against them but they can drag their feet on it or do something like insist anyone who wants to be a refugee and get long-term residency who is not elderly or a child must begin military training under NATO and do a tour of service in Ukraine not less than 6 months and then just feed them into the slaughterhouse, knowing many won’t return.
One major problem for peace is, even after they force Zelenski to sign a peace treaty, the fascist terror squads may not stand down. They may continue attacking Russian forces at which point the war continues because the Nazi-loving government isn’t about to let their precious fascists be all killed by Russians by pulling all intelligence and support from them.
We can’t be sure the US doesn’t want chaos and terrorism in Europe. The EU is a rival block for the US and this war has forced industry the US wants to flee it. Some has gone to China yes, but some has gone to the US and if the US puts further sanctions on China they might force more to leave to go to the US. The US seems to be consolidating its control and assets ahead of the big cold war with China and it doesn’t want any vassals who might wander or play both sides if it can help it and an intact, independent EU represents just such a threat.
By making the EU a hell-hole they can also funnel scientists, educated minds, skilled labor back to the US via immigration as they’ve done for a century with the promise of money and safety in exchange for helping keep the US on top scientifically, economically, etc. The US makes regions awful then sucks their brightest minds as well as material resources out to benefit itself. Not a new strategy, just not one used on white people in memory.
I don’t see how Ukraine fights this war without an economy, without skilled people, without factories, and so on. Once the economy collapses it’s game over. Also, trucks aren’t nearly as efficient at moving things, and they don’t help with moving heavy weaponry like tanks and artillery. Those things need to be constantly maintained and repaired. Right now, Ukraine uses trains to send them all the way to Germany and Poland then ships them back to the front lines in the east. This is already incredibly inefficient I might add.
I also don’t see any quagmire happening. Once the logistics are broken, the army is going to collapse without supplies.
Russia losing is the most unlikely scenario in my opinion. Russia is treating this as an existential threat, and they have barely tapped their available resources. Russia is also backed by China because China realizes that Russia acts as a buffer between them and the west. If Russia is ever going to find itself in difficulty keeping up with the west then China will prop them up.
I think that three and four are the most likely scenarios, and it will depend on how confident Russia is that they will be able to control all of Ukraine or if they think that’s a desirable thing to do. My expectation would be that they will create a land bridge to Transnistria via Odessa, and leave western Ukraine as west’s problem. That seems like the most sensible way to go, but I have no idea what Russian calculus there is.
I agree that US is likely cannibalizing Europe for whatever skills and economy is there. And this means that NATO is going to fall apart. So, US doesn’t get the grand prize of regime change in Russia, but they get the consolation prize of propping up their own economy by sacrificing Europe.
I’d ague this would amount to a Pyrrhic victory. While it’ll help US stabilize in the short term, burning their major ally like that will let the rest of their allies know that they’re expandable. US will find itself isolated going forward.
I’m a bit skeptical. To be honest throughout this certain voices in the western left have been regularly wrong about Ukraine. Those making strong calls anyways. A lot of wish-casting and I admit I engaged in a bit of it myself.
We can’t help but hope for fascists to lose and for the west to have egg on its face but Russia is not the soviet union sadly and they’ve misjudged the situation from the start, thinking they could force a treaty with minimal commitment was a horrible tactical error that has caused a lot of suffering and allowed the Ukrainians a stronger position to bounce back from.
First it was Russia wouldn’t actually invade and the US was just blowing smoke up everyone’s ass with their screaming about it. Then it was the Russians would steamroll them and it would be over withing 90 days, then it was that the Ukrainian army was going to be encircled and effectively destroyed and then mopped up in summer. And at various points that Europe would bend the knee to Russia, buck Washington, winter would force them to submit, etc. But they’ve only doubled and tripled down because liberalism was fully colonized their senses and besides the fact that impoverishing the masses and transferring their wealth upwards via “inflation” and energy costs is a double benefit to the capitalists made oh so sweet by the fact they get to do so while pointing the finger at a dehumanized enemy people and state as to blame.
The peace being floated by the officials quoted is I think probably unacceptable to Russia. They’ve legally integrated Donbass and other territories into Russia proper and this peace they call for would mean giving those places up and letting their people be brutalized by fascist terrorists. Certainly it would be equal to a humiliating loss to Russia and a win for the west and fascists if they conceded on the points of those territories being returned to Ukraine. It would also be difficult as the resistance fighters in those places aren’t going to quietly lay down their weapons and wait for the fascists to roll up, abduct and torture them to death. Russia could yet betray those people and acquiesce to these terms but this may just be a tact by the west to try and make Russia look unreasonable to steel the resolve of their populace and political class for more war.
This whole conflict has been a series of deceptions by the west. The west admits the accords of 2014 were a chance to give Ukraine time to build a military to challenge Russia. The peace negotiations a few months in by Ukraine were a feint and achieved good things for them while hurting Russian momentum. If Russia stops at anything short of toppling the Kiev regime (or at minimum requiring it disarm and renounce belligerency and the right to maintain a military), I give a 80% chance this war will just start back up again in a few years to a decade at most after NATO has re-armed Ukraine to the teeth for round two and that will go even worse for Russia. (Of course they could luck out and a global recession plus successful de-dollarization could broadside the west and bog them down enough that they can’t really do this but that’s a big if). General mobilization or straight up conceding defeat will be likely under such a circumstance and Putin may become unpopular enough that he can be replaced by a puppet from the west carefully maneuvered into place. A Yeltsin 2.0.
This is the grand strategy and the hope I think for the western planners, it’s about getting Russia on the anti-China program. If they get them in then China is in trouble. US-Anglo hegemony and subjugation of Africa/global south will continue probably for the rest of this century and China will have a long march of a different kind. To be frank if they got a committed enough puppet I’d be very worried they’d use them to nuke China. Hoping that Russia would be sacrificed and China ruined, thus, securing capitalist exploitation and hegemony for some time to come and eliminating a great deal of people and capital to allow growth in the wake of it.
Of course, the west could be about to crash and burn. Who knows. But I think it unwise to underestimate our enemies. Better to over-estimate and be pleasantly surprised if wrong.
I think what this comes down to is the economy and logistics. Russia tried to make Ukraine see sense for seven months, and they avoided attacking Ukrainian infrastructure during that time. If Russia kept going like that then the war could drag on indefinitely. However, after the Crimean bridge attacks, Russia finally decided to treat this as an actual war and started dismantling the infrastructure.
This is a whole different game now because people simply can’t live in large cities without water and electricity. Trains can’t run because they rely on the power grid. Factories can’t operate. Shops can’t stay open. And so forth. The country is becoming unlivable.
The west simply can’t replace what Ukraine is losing fast enough. It’s much easier for Russia to destroy things in Ukraine then for the west to build these things, ship them to Ukraine, and install them there. It takes seconds to destroy stuff and months to years to rebuild.
Ukrainian army cannot operate without logistics and support. Troops need food water, ammo, clothing, and medical supplies. Machinery needs fuel, spare parts, repair shops, etc. The army needs communication networks to operate cohesively. All these things disappear with the infrastructure being dismantled.
If you look at the situation in a sober way it’s very obvious that things are going horribly wrong for the west, and truth is starting to seep into the propaganda bubble western media created.
Can’t say I agree with this assessment, given that, as you have said:
US and Uk have been screeching about how Russia/Putin’s goal is “genocide” for ages now. It fits the narrative perfectly.
If the west had any inclination to rebuild at all. Which I doubt. The goal seems to be to destroy whatever cold remains of the USSR’s corpse still exist. And as a bonus- create chaos in Europe. Both goals seem to be close to achieved.
That’s not going to matter in the slightest. What’s going to matter is the flood of Ukrainian refugees that Europe is going to have to accommodate. Russia is not going to repair its reputation with the west. People here already think the worst about Russia, so more PR victories aren’t really going to change anything.
It’s the collapse of material conditions that really matters now. Europe is about to have a crisis that’s comparable to what happened in Russia back in the 90s, and people in Europe aren’t even remotely prepared for that.
And I’m not talking about rebuilding. I’m talking about keeping Ukraine functional enough to continue engaging in the war. This project is becoming too costly for the west.
While yes, it’s not at all a negative for the bourgeoisie to suddenly have an influx of fascist minded people (and the longer the Ukraine conflict goes on, the more clear it is just how many Ukrainians are deeply sympathetic to fascism if not outright holding viciously reactionary pro-Nazi belief systems themselves) into their midst.
Look at Canada and all the Ukrainian “refugees” who set up CIA monuments to Nazis there. To some degree the US might want to import these types of people to either Europe as insurance against an independent EU uniting with China or trying to get back on good terms with Russia or into the US itself to operate freely to purge enemies of the empire and scapegoats alike.
Europe was upset by the Syrian crisis because those were brown Muslim people. They will not have the same issue at all culturally with precious whites who are as racist as they are. It might strain logistics in certain places but they can just let a certain amount starve or exist on the edges for cheap under the table labor.
I question how much of the country’s infrastructure is really being destroyed I guess. Are the Russians targeting the far west beyond maybe rail lines supplying western weapons shipments? Or just the east and center that directly impacts supply lines and the central government in Kiev? Russian media I’ve seen doesn’t say, western media just sobs about ‘the humanity’ and doesn’t give specifics so I really don’t know.
Ukrainian fascists also happen to be nationalist, and they don’t get along with people in the countries they’re pouring into. Poland is a perfect example of that. Meanwhile, with the dire economic situation in Europe, having a bunch more people straining the system makes people of those countries resentful of Ukrainians in turn. This is already starting to create tensions, and these will only grow.
Another factor is that the Ukrainian fascists are now well armed and ready to enact violence and terrorism in the countries they move to. We’ve already seen this happen in Italy, and that’s just the start.
Meanwhile, pretty much all of the power production and distribution is being dismantled in Ukraine, and trains in Ukraine run on electric power. However, dismantling the power grid affects pretty much all operations in the country. It’s not possible for large cities to operate without electricity.
Currently, more than half the power grid in Ukraine is down, and this is a cumulative problem. Russia has been doing strikes of around a hundred missiles every week, sometimes multiple times a week. They attack the power grid, wait for Ukraine to start repairs, and then attack again.
The west is not able to replace what’s being destroyed nearly at the same rate. You can’t just build things like transformers overnight.
Fair enough. Though they can use gas-powered trucks to transport weapons supplies so it won’t stop the war effort necessarily (I do grant this means their economy completely collapses but it didn’t have far to go at this point). Those are not practical to target from afar, you need loitering air assets which Russia can’t deploy because the country is swarming with man-pads and other anti-air systems.
What you seem to be saying is that Europe’s problems from this will be the real pressure. I don’t disagree but I also think it’s not something that’s going to force a change in the next year. I think that’s a pressure that the Europeans respond to after another year maybe and by that point I maintain one of 4 things has happened and the result is locked in:
Remember, Europe is not a democracy. The people being upset, being subject to terrorist attacks doesn’t mean their governments will fix it. They live in a DotB and one subjugated to American/Atlantic bourgeoisie and THEIR interests not even necessarily their own national ones. I don’t think they’ll endure it forever obviously as they don’t want populist movements building and growing in power against them but they can drag their feet on it or do something like insist anyone who wants to be a refugee and get long-term residency who is not elderly or a child must begin military training under NATO and do a tour of service in Ukraine not less than 6 months and then just feed them into the slaughterhouse, knowing many won’t return.
One major problem for peace is, even after they force Zelenski to sign a peace treaty, the fascist terror squads may not stand down. They may continue attacking Russian forces at which point the war continues because the Nazi-loving government isn’t about to let their precious fascists be all killed by Russians by pulling all intelligence and support from them.
We can’t be sure the US doesn’t want chaos and terrorism in Europe. The EU is a rival block for the US and this war has forced industry the US wants to flee it. Some has gone to China yes, but some has gone to the US and if the US puts further sanctions on China they might force more to leave to go to the US. The US seems to be consolidating its control and assets ahead of the big cold war with China and it doesn’t want any vassals who might wander or play both sides if it can help it and an intact, independent EU represents just such a threat.
By making the EU a hell-hole they can also funnel scientists, educated minds, skilled labor back to the US via immigration as they’ve done for a century with the promise of money and safety in exchange for helping keep the US on top scientifically, economically, etc. The US makes regions awful then sucks their brightest minds as well as material resources out to benefit itself. Not a new strategy, just not one used on white people in memory.
I don’t see how Ukraine fights this war without an economy, without skilled people, without factories, and so on. Once the economy collapses it’s game over. Also, trucks aren’t nearly as efficient at moving things, and they don’t help with moving heavy weaponry like tanks and artillery. Those things need to be constantly maintained and repaired. Right now, Ukraine uses trains to send them all the way to Germany and Poland then ships them back to the front lines in the east. This is already incredibly inefficient I might add.
I also don’t see any quagmire happening. Once the logistics are broken, the army is going to collapse without supplies.
Russia losing is the most unlikely scenario in my opinion. Russia is treating this as an existential threat, and they have barely tapped their available resources. Russia is also backed by China because China realizes that Russia acts as a buffer between them and the west. If Russia is ever going to find itself in difficulty keeping up with the west then China will prop them up.
I think that three and four are the most likely scenarios, and it will depend on how confident Russia is that they will be able to control all of Ukraine or if they think that’s a desirable thing to do. My expectation would be that they will create a land bridge to Transnistria via Odessa, and leave western Ukraine as west’s problem. That seems like the most sensible way to go, but I have no idea what Russian calculus there is.
I agree that US is likely cannibalizing Europe for whatever skills and economy is there. And this means that NATO is going to fall apart. So, US doesn’t get the grand prize of regime change in Russia, but they get the consolation prize of propping up their own economy by sacrificing Europe.
I’d ague this would amount to a Pyrrhic victory. While it’ll help US stabilize in the short term, burning their major ally like that will let the rest of their allies know that they’re expandable. US will find itself isolated going forward.
That’s actually a good question. If anything it seems that the weapons shipments are not being targeted.