Ukrainian fascists also happen to be nationalist, and they don’t get along with people in the countries they’re pouring into. Poland is a perfect example of that. Meanwhile, with the dire economic situation in Europe, having a bunch more people straining the system makes people of those countries resentful of Ukrainians in turn. This is already starting to create tensions, and these will only grow.
Another factor is that the Ukrainian fascists are now well armed and ready to enact violence and terrorism in the countries they move to. We’ve already seen this happen in Italy, and that’s just the start.
Meanwhile, pretty much all of the power production and distribution is being dismantled in Ukraine, and trains in Ukraine run on electric power. However, dismantling the power grid affects pretty much all operations in the country. It’s not possible for large cities to operate without electricity.
Currently, more than half the power grid in Ukraine is down, and this is a cumulative problem. Russia has been doing strikes of around a hundred missiles every week, sometimes multiple times a week. They attack the power grid, wait for Ukraine to start repairs, and then attack again.
The west is not able to replace what’s being destroyed nearly at the same rate. You can’t just build things like transformers overnight.
Fair enough. Though they can use gas-powered trucks to transport weapons supplies so it won’t stop the war effort necessarily (I do grant this means their economy completely collapses but it didn’t have far to go at this point). Those are not practical to target from afar, you need loitering air assets which Russia can’t deploy because the country is swarming with man-pads and other anti-air systems.
What you seem to be saying is that Europe’s problems from this will be the real pressure. I don’t disagree but I also think it’s not something that’s going to force a change in the next year. I think that’s a pressure that the Europeans respond to after another year maybe and by that point I maintain one of 4 things has happened and the result is locked in:
Quagmire. Russia isn’t making any progress, the Ukrainians however aren’t making gains of any meaning either and both sides are just fighting and inflicting losses of lives and treasure. This is a quagmire and the west effectively wins, certainly the US wins even if Europe loses (another US win).
Ukrainian win. Russia concedes territories taken since 2022, gets to keep Crimea but is kicked out and sanctions kept on them while left humiliated internally and externally by a war that apparently gained them nothing.
Russian victory. Ukraine is forced to accept Russian terms, ceasefire is arranged, Russia gets to keep the territories that voted to join it, NATO sells itself as the one that stopped Russia from taking all of Ukraine and Russia gets to claim they eliminated the threat despite many Nazis remaining and the fascism problem probably growing worse.
Russia advances and topples the central government in Kiev, insurgency may or may not continue for years or Russia may achieve outright victory, complete acceptance of their terms by reformed new government and an amended constitution for Ukraine. This is the only situation where maybe the Nazi problem is slightly tempered and tamped down.
Remember, Europe is not a democracy. The people being upset, being subject to terrorist attacks doesn’t mean their governments will fix it. They live in a DotB and one subjugated to American/Atlantic bourgeoisie and THEIR interests not even necessarily their own national ones. I don’t think they’ll endure it forever obviously as they don’t want populist movements building and growing in power against them but they can drag their feet on it or do something like insist anyone who wants to be a refugee and get long-term residency who is not elderly or a child must begin military training under NATO and do a tour of service in Ukraine not less than 6 months and then just feed them into the slaughterhouse, knowing many won’t return.
One major problem for peace is, even after they force Zelenski to sign a peace treaty, the fascist terror squads may not stand down. They may continue attacking Russian forces at which point the war continues because the Nazi-loving government isn’t about to let their precious fascists be all killed by Russians by pulling all intelligence and support from them.
We can’t be sure the US doesn’t want chaos and terrorism in Europe. The EU is a rival block for the US and this war has forced industry the US wants to flee it. Some has gone to China yes, but some has gone to the US and if the US puts further sanctions on China they might force more to leave to go to the US. The US seems to be consolidating its control and assets ahead of the big cold war with China and it doesn’t want any vassals who might wander or play both sides if it can help it and an intact, independent EU represents just such a threat.
By making the EU a hell-hole they can also funnel scientists, educated minds, skilled labor back to the US via immigration as they’ve done for a century with the promise of money and safety in exchange for helping keep the US on top scientifically, economically, etc. The US makes regions awful then sucks their brightest minds as well as material resources out to benefit itself. Not a new strategy, just not one used on white people in memory.
I don’t see how Ukraine fights this war without an economy, without skilled people, without factories, and so on. Once the economy collapses it’s game over. Also, trucks aren’t nearly as efficient at moving things, and they don’t help with moving heavy weaponry like tanks and artillery. Those things need to be constantly maintained and repaired. Right now, Ukraine uses trains to send them all the way to Germany and Poland then ships them back to the front lines in the east. This is already incredibly inefficient I might add.
I also don’t see any quagmire happening. Once the logistics are broken, the army is going to collapse without supplies.
Russia losing is the most unlikely scenario in my opinion. Russia is treating this as an existential threat, and they have barely tapped their available resources. Russia is also backed by China because China realizes that Russia acts as a buffer between them and the west. If Russia is ever going to find itself in difficulty keeping up with the west then China will prop them up.
I think that three and four are the most likely scenarios, and it will depend on how confident Russia is that they will be able to control all of Ukraine or if they think that’s a desirable thing to do. My expectation would be that they will create a land bridge to Transnistria via Odessa, and leave western Ukraine as west’s problem. That seems like the most sensible way to go, but I have no idea what Russian calculus there is.
I agree that US is likely cannibalizing Europe for whatever skills and economy is there. And this means that NATO is going to fall apart. So, US doesn’t get the grand prize of regime change in Russia, but they get the consolation prize of propping up their own economy by sacrificing Europe.
I’d ague this would amount to a Pyrrhic victory. While it’ll help US stabilize in the short term, burning their major ally like that will let the rest of their allies know that they’re expandable. US will find itself isolated going forward.
Ukrainian fascists also happen to be nationalist, and they don’t get along with people in the countries they’re pouring into. Poland is a perfect example of that. Meanwhile, with the dire economic situation in Europe, having a bunch more people straining the system makes people of those countries resentful of Ukrainians in turn. This is already starting to create tensions, and these will only grow.
Another factor is that the Ukrainian fascists are now well armed and ready to enact violence and terrorism in the countries they move to. We’ve already seen this happen in Italy, and that’s just the start.
Meanwhile, pretty much all of the power production and distribution is being dismantled in Ukraine, and trains in Ukraine run on electric power. However, dismantling the power grid affects pretty much all operations in the country. It’s not possible for large cities to operate without electricity.
Currently, more than half the power grid in Ukraine is down, and this is a cumulative problem. Russia has been doing strikes of around a hundred missiles every week, sometimes multiple times a week. They attack the power grid, wait for Ukraine to start repairs, and then attack again.
The west is not able to replace what’s being destroyed nearly at the same rate. You can’t just build things like transformers overnight.
Fair enough. Though they can use gas-powered trucks to transport weapons supplies so it won’t stop the war effort necessarily (I do grant this means their economy completely collapses but it didn’t have far to go at this point). Those are not practical to target from afar, you need loitering air assets which Russia can’t deploy because the country is swarming with man-pads and other anti-air systems.
What you seem to be saying is that Europe’s problems from this will be the real pressure. I don’t disagree but I also think it’s not something that’s going to force a change in the next year. I think that’s a pressure that the Europeans respond to after another year maybe and by that point I maintain one of 4 things has happened and the result is locked in:
Remember, Europe is not a democracy. The people being upset, being subject to terrorist attacks doesn’t mean their governments will fix it. They live in a DotB and one subjugated to American/Atlantic bourgeoisie and THEIR interests not even necessarily their own national ones. I don’t think they’ll endure it forever obviously as they don’t want populist movements building and growing in power against them but they can drag their feet on it or do something like insist anyone who wants to be a refugee and get long-term residency who is not elderly or a child must begin military training under NATO and do a tour of service in Ukraine not less than 6 months and then just feed them into the slaughterhouse, knowing many won’t return.
One major problem for peace is, even after they force Zelenski to sign a peace treaty, the fascist terror squads may not stand down. They may continue attacking Russian forces at which point the war continues because the Nazi-loving government isn’t about to let their precious fascists be all killed by Russians by pulling all intelligence and support from them.
We can’t be sure the US doesn’t want chaos and terrorism in Europe. The EU is a rival block for the US and this war has forced industry the US wants to flee it. Some has gone to China yes, but some has gone to the US and if the US puts further sanctions on China they might force more to leave to go to the US. The US seems to be consolidating its control and assets ahead of the big cold war with China and it doesn’t want any vassals who might wander or play both sides if it can help it and an intact, independent EU represents just such a threat.
By making the EU a hell-hole they can also funnel scientists, educated minds, skilled labor back to the US via immigration as they’ve done for a century with the promise of money and safety in exchange for helping keep the US on top scientifically, economically, etc. The US makes regions awful then sucks their brightest minds as well as material resources out to benefit itself. Not a new strategy, just not one used on white people in memory.
I don’t see how Ukraine fights this war without an economy, without skilled people, without factories, and so on. Once the economy collapses it’s game over. Also, trucks aren’t nearly as efficient at moving things, and they don’t help with moving heavy weaponry like tanks and artillery. Those things need to be constantly maintained and repaired. Right now, Ukraine uses trains to send them all the way to Germany and Poland then ships them back to the front lines in the east. This is already incredibly inefficient I might add.
I also don’t see any quagmire happening. Once the logistics are broken, the army is going to collapse without supplies.
Russia losing is the most unlikely scenario in my opinion. Russia is treating this as an existential threat, and they have barely tapped their available resources. Russia is also backed by China because China realizes that Russia acts as a buffer between them and the west. If Russia is ever going to find itself in difficulty keeping up with the west then China will prop them up.
I think that three and four are the most likely scenarios, and it will depend on how confident Russia is that they will be able to control all of Ukraine or if they think that’s a desirable thing to do. My expectation would be that they will create a land bridge to Transnistria via Odessa, and leave western Ukraine as west’s problem. That seems like the most sensible way to go, but I have no idea what Russian calculus there is.
I agree that US is likely cannibalizing Europe for whatever skills and economy is there. And this means that NATO is going to fall apart. So, US doesn’t get the grand prize of regime change in Russia, but they get the consolation prize of propping up their own economy by sacrificing Europe.
I’d ague this would amount to a Pyrrhic victory. While it’ll help US stabilize in the short term, burning their major ally like that will let the rest of their allies know that they’re expandable. US will find itself isolated going forward.