I just did a quick comparison of average temperatures from where I grew up in North America to where I live now in Europe. Both places are within a few degrees latitude of each other. The Gulf Stream keeps average temperatures somewhere around 5°C warmer in Europe than in North America. Knowing that a 2°C rise in global average temperatures will be catastrophic I can’t even imagine what 5°C means, even just for a small part of the globe. That of course ignores other effects on local climate such as nearby seas, mountains, deserts, etc. but a 5°C reduction in average temperatures over the European continent as a whole could be a starting point. Considering that Ukranian and Russian grain exports plug a lot of gaps in harvest vs demand shortfalls in other parts of the world, it could mean the starvation of tens if not hundreds of millions of people if it were to happen quickly enough. European countries would be unable to grow enough food to feed themselves and energy use for heating would increase many times over.
Ukraine and Russia have continental climates, they are not as affected by the Gulf Stream as the western European states. They will be fine (except that Ukraine is being destroyed by a war, but that’s another matter), but Britain, France, Germany maybe even Spain (which already has problems with water shortages) will see crop failures and a collapse of agriculture. They will be even more dependent on the US and Russia as a result. Europe will become even more of a colony of Washington than it already is, conditions will approach those in the global south with the difference that the global south will be rising along with China whereas the US is in terminal decline and will squeeze Europe dry to slow down that decline for as long as there is anything left to squeeze.
I just did a quick comparison of average temperatures from where I grew up in North America to where I live now in Europe. Both places are within a few degrees latitude of each other. The Gulf Stream keeps average temperatures somewhere around 5°C warmer in Europe than in North America. Knowing that a 2°C rise in global average temperatures will be catastrophic I can’t even imagine what 5°C means, even just for a small part of the globe. That of course ignores other effects on local climate such as nearby seas, mountains, deserts, etc. but a 5°C reduction in average temperatures over the European continent as a whole could be a starting point. Considering that Ukranian and Russian grain exports plug a lot of gaps in harvest vs demand shortfalls in other parts of the world, it could mean the starvation of tens if not hundreds of millions of people if it were to happen quickly enough. European countries would be unable to grow enough food to feed themselves and energy use for heating would increase many times over.
So pretty much fucked. Thank you.
Ukraine and Russia have continental climates, they are not as affected by the Gulf Stream as the western European states. They will be fine (except that Ukraine is being destroyed by a war, but that’s another matter), but Britain, France, Germany maybe even Spain (which already has problems with water shortages) will see crop failures and a collapse of agriculture. They will be even more dependent on the US and Russia as a result. Europe will become even more of a colony of Washington than it already is, conditions will approach those in the global south with the difference that the global south will be rising along with China whereas the US is in terminal decline and will squeeze Europe dry to slow down that decline for as long as there is anything left to squeeze.
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