- cross-posted to:
- china@lemmygrad.ml
- cross-posted to:
- china@lemmygrad.ml
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Aren’t we multipolar, yet?
I think we’ve firmly entered multipolar world at this point. The west simply hasn’t realized it yet.
Noice.
Well, we still need more… Uh… “direct evidence” in the form of seeing the Global South developing quickly and having the former colonies gain independence in a more heavy way so we can see the West finally accepting the truth and then, we will have the biggest how on Earth, that is, Westerners accepting defeat without saying it out loud.
As much as I admire your optimism, I don’t think we’re there yet; Russian and China are facing serious economic situations now, any more pressure applied to it might cause a serious chain reaction(which the west would love to see).
China and Russia are much better off economically than the west. The key difference is that both have retained domestic industries and local manufacturing. China’s biggest vulnerability was always around food and energy imports. Russia plugs that gap making it much harder for US to disrupt or blockade China. Both Russian and Chinese political systems are also much better suited for dealing with economic crises as the one we’re seeing now. The way Russia was able to raise rates, and do capital controls at the start of the war is simply not possible in the west. And as a result we now see Russian economy recovering while western economies continue to unravel.
US long term strategy was to be able to blockade China’s ports to prevent trade. In response, China started working on the BRI and can now ship everything through Eurasia. Also, it’s not even clear that US could compete with China militarily at this point. A recent report from a British military think tank explains how the west is simply not in a position to take on a large industrialized nation like Russia or China.
We’re also seeing a lot of development happening around BRICS, and I really think that’s where the future is. The west is rapidly losing grip on the countries it was dominating and exploiting. These countries realigning away from the west directly helps Chinese economy while hurting the west.
Another interesting development to watch is that BRICS have announced that they will be creating their own reserve currency. This marks the end of the dollar as the global currency, and dramatically shrinks western financial system which in turn reduces America’s borrowing power.
US would never pick a fight with Russia/China. What they’ve been doing is much more passive aggressive. By bring NATO around Russia/China, US brings a ton of pressure with a reasonable cost. Militarily it’s not much a threat, it’s just super annoying for Russia/China, warning Japan/S.Korea/India/Europe to not side with them.
China and Russia are much better off economically than the west.
I am not sure about this though. I think the the most important economy conflict/race right now, is the west shifting away from Chinese products, and China stepping into the irreplaceable high-tech industry which would make that shift-away impossible. Both would take years and I don’t see a winning side yet. Japan/Europe/India would be wise to side with both sides but US is obviously not happy about that.
US generally uses proxy wars and indirect influence via its puppet regimes, but that’s still a conflict with China and Russia. NATO is costing the west a huge amount of resources, and at a time of a deepening economic crisis this is a burden that will break the west.
It’s worth noting that while US keeps trying to get partners in Asia, the reality of the situation is that all the Asian countries are economically dependent on trade with China. There is absolutely nothing US can offer to counter that.
The mistake you make is thinking that China is dependent on the west and that the west would be able to shift away from Chinese market. The reality is that there is no replacement for Chinese manufacturing, and western companies are not going to live Chinese markets because that would put them at a severe disadvantage with their competitors.
Meanwhile, China is already working on dual circulation to create a robust internal economy that’s independent of the west, and they’re building out huge economic projects like the BRI that are replacing the need for western markets. Chinese stocks are already being seen as being insulated from western economic crashes now indicating that China is already significantly decoupled.
My prediction is that the economic war will prove to be devastating for western countries. We’re seeing living standards collapse across western world after only a few months, and the worst is yet to come. This is leading to political turmoil and civil unrest. This is a downward spiral the west has no way out of.
The only way out of the west will be to either collapse and be rebuild under socialist regimes, or accept dominance of the East. If the bourgeoisie is smart, they will try the later if not late enough for them. And maybe we will gain socialist influence in the East enough to start a chain conversion towards a new system, but this is only day dreaming, so don’t take me as speaking seriously enough
Completely agree, in order to avoid collapse the west needs to bring things like manufacturing back and become self sufficient. That can only happen under socialism. I expect the chain reaction will be happening all over the developing world now.
The US empire is slowly crumbling. Like its predecessor.
