Lancet study shows: those who had SARS-CoV-2 infection have more than three times the risk of dying over the following year compared with those who remain uninfected.
Thanks for linking this study. One small issue - the study is on those who were infected versus those who were not, and was about long term mortality (12 month period post infection). This study did not examine individuals who were infected by COVID-19 more than once or how that affected their outcomes. A more accurate title would be “Lancet study shows: those who had SARS-CoV-2 infection have more than three times the risk of dying over the following year compared with those who remain uninfected.”
Good point, updated the title.
How do they know how many of the control group were infected, but never tested?
How do they know how many of the control group were infected, but never tested?
This is addressed in the ‘strengths and limitations’ section of the discussion. I have copied the relevant text below:
We are aware of the potential misclassification of reference group (due to people having undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection) which could lead to an underestimation of the true effect of death risk factors (producing more conservative estimates). However, this misclassification is probably limited (owing to the very low prevalence of undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population).
However, this misclassification is probably limited (owing to the very low prevalence of undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population).
Huh. Doesn’t really sound like they have a scientific basis for “very low prevalence”.
I don’t really know enough about Estonia to say, but if you think about it the worst under-reporting real cases in the non-infected cohort could do is minimize the effect size of not being effected as some of these individuals would actually also have the same health risks those who were infected have.
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If you read the study they actually separate out the mortality rates of 60+ and those who are not. There’s still a significantly increased risk of death to cancer and slightly elevated risk due to respiratory issues in the younger cohort. You can see this reflected in figure 4
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I don’t have much else to say other than please read the study. In particular the results section talks about how they controlled for many of the concerns you are mentioning.
