• granolabar@kbin.melroy.org
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    1 month ago

    Well Ukraine got worn out over last 2 years with spotty western support and weird restrictions on weapons usage.

    This is where the west wanted Ukraine. So here we are.

    Russia is weakened so west and US got what they wanted it so now we are ready to do a deal.

    Nobody will ever give up nukes after this and many countries are going to be getting their nukes in order as that is the only way to properly secure sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    Coupled with Israel behavior undermining “rules” based international order, this is the brave new world we got.

    Cheers.

    • freagle@lemmygrad.ml
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      1 month ago

      [nukes are] the only way to properly secure sovereignty and territorial integrity

      As North Korea had correctly identified early and worked towards diligently to protect their people.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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      1 month ago

      In what way is Russia weakened?

      Last I checked, mainstream western sources report that Russian economy is booming. For example, the World Bank just reclassified Russia as a high income country https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/world-bank-country-classifications-by-income-level-for-2024-2025

      The IMF forecasts that Russian economy is set to grow faster than all the western economies https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/russia-forecast-to-grow-faster-than-advanced-economies-in-2024-imf.html

      Russian oil and gas revenues soared 41% in first half of the year, as the data shows https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-gas-revenue-soars-41-first-half-data-shows-2024-07-03/

      Russian military is stronger today than at the start of the war https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine-krieg-nato-oberbefehlshaber-und-generalinspekteur-ueber-folgen-und-perspektiven-a-9cb8d225-8bd8-454d-830d-009c9f46dfc9#selection-791.0-791.81

      The number of Russian troops is constantly increasing https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/12/17/ukraine-s-top-general-to-le-monde-the-number-of-russian-troops-is-constantly-increasing_6736188_4.html

      Russian MIC is outproducing the west. For example, Russia is able to produce 3x as many artillery shells as all of the west combined https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html

      • Grapho
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        1 month ago

        If I call you a Putin asslicker it basically means that all the evidence you posted is null and I don’t have to even read it or post evidence of my own, so, checkmate.

        Add this one to the list, btw, Russia’s surpassed Japan as the 4th world economy by PPP gross domestic product.

        https://www.intellinews.com/russia-overtakes-japan-to-become-the-fourth-largest-economy-in-the-world-in-ppp-terms-328108/

        On the other hand: Germany, one of the biggest sponsors of this war, is currently on its way directly to the shitter https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2024-12-18/the-german-government-collapse-and-a-trend-of-discontent

        • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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          1 month ago

          That’s basically the level of argument libs bring to the table. The most hilarious part here is that this is stuff that’s openly reported in western media. It’s not controversial in any way, and yet we still have people running around thinking that the west managed to harm Russia in some way.

        • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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          1 month ago

          Seems to me that the west just gained a new Afghanistan. I’m sure Europe is going to love the new refugee crisis.

          • menemen
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            1 month ago

            Lol, you serious? From Turkey alone around 250.000 refugees already returned since Assad fell. They were hardly able to manage that stream of returning refugees at the border. Many, many more prepare to return. Most refugees fled from the Assad governement.

            The Isis-thing was never more than a minor sub-conflict.

              • goldfndr
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                1 month ago

                Your reference predates Assad’s toppling and the very URL mentions people fleeing due to escalation, so it doesn’t contradict the comment to which you replied, nor does it substantiate your statements. Do you have a better corroboration?

                • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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                  1 month ago

                  Syria has now been invaded by Turkey and Israel, with a whole bunch of different groups fighting each other there for dominance now. If you don’t understand how this is going to result in a massive refugee crisis then I don’t know what to tell you. I guess you’ll just have to wait a few months and see for yourself

              • menemen
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                1 month ago

                Oh my, and you accuse of living knowledge a fantasy world…

                They literally just unearthed a mass grave of approximately 150.000 people that have been murdered by Assad…

            • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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              1 month ago

              No, I’m pointing out that the west overthrowing governments tends to have negative consequences for the west. The US tried to occupy Afghanistan for decades and bled trillions on that project. Meanwhile, anytime a government is overthrown by extremists, then you necessarily end up with waves of refugee fleeing the country. What part of that are you having trouble understanding?

    • Grapho
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      1 month ago

      The restrictions aren’t “weird”. These are weapons that need satellite guidance from NATO satellites and stockpiled at NATO bases.

      If they started being fired en masse, Russia would need to disable those satellites, and the US only instigated this war to weaken Russia and prevent it from arming anti imperialist resistance groups in the middle east. It’s not interested in actually fighting, because fighting an organized army is much harder, much costlier, and carries more risk than invading Asian countries with peasant militias.

    • davelOPA
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      1 month ago

      This is where the west wanted Ukraine. So here we are.

      Russia is weakened so west and US got what they wanted it so now we are ready to do a deal.

      What the West wanted ideally was the balkanization and re-neocolonialization of Russia. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/17/the-west-is-preparing-for-russias-disintegration/

      The “weakening” of Russia is what they considered “second prize,” but they didn’t even get that, because Russia is now stronger. The sanctions have backfired. Russia has severed its ties with the “garden” and strengthened its ties to the “jungle.”

      • geneva_convenience
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        1 month ago

        Unlikely. If the west was pushing to destroy Russia they would have provided Ukraine with adequate arms to do so. They deliberately created a drawn out long conflict. Whether Russia has been weakened as they hoped is debateable. It does not yet appear so.

        • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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          1 month ago

          People planning this stuff aren’t idiots and they knew that there was no scenario that Ukraine could defeat Russia militarily no matter what weapons they provided. For example, back in 2016, Obama declared Ukraine to be not a core American interest and that he is reluctant to intervene in the country, because Russia will always be able to maintain escalatory dominance there.

          I don’t think their goal was to create a drawn out conflict however. The idea was to use Ukraine as fodder and then break Russia economically. Western planners fundamentally misunderstood the nature of Russian economy, and thought that it would collapse after they froze Russian foreign assets and put sanctions on. Not only did that not happen, but major countries like China and India snubbed the west and continued trade with Russia. That’s where the whole hare brained scheme started to come apart, but the time this became obvious the west was already too invested to pull back.

          • geneva_convenience
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            1 month ago

            The Americs really pushing Zelensky to not accept the ceasefire in 2022 is what mostly made me think they did not plan for victory. There were no new plans afterwards and it has been meat grinder ever since.

            • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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              1 month ago

              It’s bewildering to me that they didn’t have a backup plan. Like they just banked everything on Russian economy collapsing, and when that didn’t happen they just kept doubling down instead of adjusting the strategy.

              • Grapho
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                1 month ago

                Realistically, what other plan could they have? They’ve used the same playbook since Vietnam and sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t, but since it always funnels a shit ton of money to the pentagon and its contractors pumps the value of the dollar nobody gives a shit, it was a success by the only metric they care about.

                • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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                  1 month ago

                  That’s very true, the MIC will be happy either way. They’re looking at decades worth of contracts from Europe already.

        • PolandIsAStateOfMind
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          1 month ago

          They wanted to destroy Russia economically, not militarily, you know, the usual “bog them in forever war and sanction them to death because we control the world finance systems” and it had a good chance of success, but they miscalculated since Russia relations with China and global south in general proven to be much more robust. It was also first time after 1991 so many countries just told US “no” when they demanded another country be destroyed economically. As result BRICS managed to build their own alternative for US controlled finance system, which is pretty ad hoc by now, but it already works and is being strenghtened.

        • Grapho
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          1 month ago

          The west has to balance providing adequate arms and not getting bombed/invaded themselves. They only do invasions on enemies they think can’t defend themselves.

          They thought the sanctions would do to Russia what it did to Libya, Venezuela, Iraq, and many others, and that they’d only need to drag this one out to win it on the economic rather than the military front. That obviously hasn’t worked, so rather than broker the peace talks a majority of Ukrainians want, they’re escalating because they don’t know how to do diplomacy, they only know how to do extortion. They’re talking about “negotiating from strength” ffs.

          • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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            1 month ago

            Only permawar provides for the most weapon sales. The sanctions on Russia was tighter colonization of EU by the US. To the last Ukrainian is opportunity to buy Ukraine assets for cheap, and making the war last longer, means cheaper, and more EU subservience.

            • Grapho
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              1 month ago

              Also more debt. The same people whining about the fictitious Chinese debt trap are really silent about how the US are lending billions to Ukraine so they can finance these arms deals, we know what these countries do once you can’t repay, they confiscate all your shit.

          • geneva_convenience
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            1 month ago

            If Russia was ever truly pushed to the brink Russia could always nuke Ukraine. There is no real way to win against nukes besides giving Ukraine their nukes back because America did not hold up their end of the nuclear deal.

            • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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              1 month ago

              If the west gave nukes to Ukraine, Russia would obviously treat that as a nuclear attack by the west. At that point everybody dies.

              • geneva_convenience
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                1 month ago

                Possibly. Which is the point. There is no way for Ukraine to win unless the west wants to risk nuclear war.

              • UltraGiGaGigantic
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                30 days ago

                This situation has already played out with the nukes the west put in turkey in the 60’s. I would hope they wouldn’t be dumb enough to repeat that mistake, but things these days are pretty fucking stupid over here in the USA

            • Grapho
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              1 month ago

              Maybe don’t give nukes to a fucking nazi government in hopes that’ll bring peace? Why not start with diplomacy and iterate from there?

        • lorty@lemmygrad.ml
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          1 month ago

          Their industry has been slowly decaying over the years and can’t adequately supply Ukraine in a long, drawn out conflict without jeopardizing their own defense. The amount of equipment Ukraine received at the first few months of the conflict was staggering, but most of it was from stockpiles built over years. Russia ramped up their industry a lot during the war and is outproducing the west, so it’s no wonder they are winning.

          • geneva_convenience
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            1 month ago

            Not really. Only recently have they started sending modern long range missiles and semi modern fighter jets to Ukraine. Those were available since the start.

            • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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              1 month ago

              Things like missiles and fighter jets aren’t instrumental in this conflict. If they were, then Russia would’ve won a long time ago because they’ve always had a massive superiority in both. This is primarily a war of attrition with 80% of casualties coming from artillery battles. The problem the west has is that it’s simply not capable of producing things like artillery shells at the rate they’re consumed.

              • geneva_convenience
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                1 month ago

                True but that is because both sides are mostly doing the field battle thing like they did in the 1700 instead of trying to blow up all civilian infrastructure of the other party America style. Which Ukraine cannot do much because they would get nuked. And Russia so far has not done much either.

                The entire war there is just very weird. There is no way for Ukraine to win besides getting nukes or somehow destroying all Russian oil without getting nuked. And both are basically impossible.

                • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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                  1 month ago

                  It’s worth noting that Russia has largely dismantled Ukrainian power grid at this point. However, it very much looks like Russia is focusing on destroying the army itself first and foremost. I agree that it is absolutely illogical for the west to prolong the war at this point as it’s becoming clear that Russia has won, and that the economic blow back for the west is worse than it is for Russia. The west is falling for the sunk cost fallacy here.

                  • geneva_convenience
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                    1 month ago

                    One twist is Ukraine is being used to get Europe to fund the American military industrial complex big time.

                  • geneva_convenience
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                    1 month ago

                    One twist is Ukraine is being used to get Europe to fund the American military industrial complex big time.