According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.
  • Sodium_nitride@lemmygrad.ml
    56·
    8 months ago

    leaving the Kremlin free to revive the conflict at a future time of its choosing.

    I keep seeing this, and yet I have not ever had anyone explain to me why the fuck Russia would revive the conflict on a future date unless the west pulled some shit again. It’s not as if the end of the conflict won’t allow the west to rearm and prepare for war again. Why will time only benefit Russia here?

    “Don’t believe the hype about them just throwing troops into the meat grinder to be slaughtered,” he added. “They do that too, of course — maximizing even more the impact of their superior numbers — but they also learn and refine.”

    Is this … holy shit. The war situation has gotten so bad, they are now toning down the Orientalism.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOP
      43·
      8 months ago

      The bigger question here is why they think Russia would agree to any sort of a freeze when they’re clearly winning. Russia doesn’t need time to build up and regroup, the west does.

    • knfrmity@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
      36·
      8 months ago

      Russia would revive the conflict because western libs project all of their own faults onto the enemy of the day.

    • Addfwyn@lemmygrad.ml
      28·
      8 months ago

      I keep seeing this, and yet I have not ever had anyone explain to me why the fuck Russia would revive the conflict on a future date unless the west pulled some shit again.

      Because their basic understanding of the war is that Russians are bloodthirsty subhumans that started the war entirely unprovoked because they just couldn’t resist invading a country for fun/they need more land (you know, as the largest country in the world). It is a pretty commonly cited refrain that as soon as this war is over, Russia is going to invade some other european country.

      They have absolutely zero understanding of why the war is happening to begin with. So they just assume Russia loves war just for the sake of it.

  • OrnluWolfjarl@lemmygrad.ml
    411·
    8 months ago

    could very well revive Western pressure for negotiations that would obviously favor Russia, leaving the Kremlin free to revive the conflict at a future time of its choosing.

    The last time there was a negotiated agreement, Russia retreated from Kiev and a bunch of land as a show of good will. Then Ukraine went back on the signed peace deal and decided to continue the war at the behest of its masters.

    The time before that, Merkel admitted that it was only done so Ukraine could buy time so the West could arm it for this war. Which by the way, Ukraine started by intensifying its bombardments of civilian centers in Donetsk and Luhansk, after every Russian warning, declaring its willingness to acquire nuclear weapons, and courting NATO.

    They were also scathing about Western foot-dragging, saying supplies and weapons systems came too late and in insufficient numbers to make the difference they otherwise could have

    Why would they expect anything different? What made them think that the West is a reliable ally? Unfortunately after the collapse of the USSR, through a mixture of propaganda and cynicism, there’s a lot of non-Western people who romanticize the West as “better than us”, in a twisted global form of Stockholm Syndrome.

    • Sodium_nitride@lemmygrad.ml
      20·
      8 months ago

      The last time there was a negotiated agreement, Russia retreated from Kiev and a bunch of land as a show of good will. Then Ukraine went back on the signed peace deal and decided to continue the war at the behest of its masters.

      I have never heard about this. Can you explain more (and provide some sources too)? Thanks a lot.

      • OrnluWolfjarl@lemmygrad.ml
        471·
        8 months ago

        https://www.aaronmate.net/p/ukraines-top-negotiator-confirms

        https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/09/02/diplomacy-watch-why-did-the-west-stop-a-peace-deal-in-ukraine/

        https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-warns-against-bad-peace-ukraine/

        https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-russia-war-peace-diplomacy/tnamp/?espv=1

        Even though the West denies it, Russia has produced the signed draft agreement with genuine Ukrainian signatures.

        Explanation:

        The SMO began on February 24. Russia was not aiming to conquer territory but to force Ukraine to accept neutrality, recognize Crimea as Russian and allow autonomy to Donetsk and Luhansk. They occupied positions in the 2 regions, took Kherson (outside Crimea) and surrounded major cities like Mariupol and Kharkhov. They also drove straight for Kiev with little regard for securing territory. This led to logistical issues for Russian forces, but despite them, they were clearly beating back the Ukrainian army (which was at its peak).

        Within a few days, Russia invited Ukraine to peace talks. They first occured in Belarus. Russia made their demands as mentioned and Ukraine demanded that Russia retreats from Ukraine, including Crimea and publicly denied peace negotiations.

        To cover their asses for denying peace in a war they were clearly losing, Ukraine started accusing Russia of warcrimes, specifically that it was kidnapping children and massacring civilians like in Bucha (claims which the Western press was eager to support). The UN did an investigation and preliminary results show there was no case for warcrimes. The ICC (which is different to the ICJ) proclaimed Ukrainian claims were right and that was that.

        Meanwhile, the Russians continued advancing. By March 6, Russian forces secured the Kiev airport and established lines of logistical supply for the forces around Kiev. This rattled Zelensky and negotiations resumed in Turkey.

        Weird things started happening then like rumours about Ukrainian officials being interrogated by Ukrainian intelligence services (infiltrated and controlled by fascists) and finally one of the negotiators being shot dead and then accused of being a spy. This was accompanied by an intense PR campaign by Right Sector and other Ukrainian fascists to stop negotiations and return to the fight.

        Despite this, the Ukrainian and Russian foreign minister met on March 10 and some progress was made. By March 16 leaks from both sides were saying that peace was close. In the meantime, Russian forces retreated from around Kiev, and also completely left the Sumy region. For the first time since the SMO started, no further advances were being made. And Ukraine did not claim this as a victory on the battlefield (not through official channels anyway), indicating this was an agreement reached during negotiations.

        Boris Johnson then spoke to the G7 and said that “Ukraine needs to be supported so it is not forced to accept a Russian peace deal”.

        He then flew to Kiev and met with Zelensky, where as Ukrainian retired officials are telling us now, he convinced Zelensky to walk away from negotiations and he promised the West would “support Ukraine all the way”.

        So despite peace being so close, Ukraine cancelled the deal by the end of March, and walked away from negotiations. Which is why Ukraine seems so demanding when it comes to aid being provided by the West. Because it was promised to them. Also why Zelensky seems so arrogant when invited to NATO conferences. Because he understood that by declining Russian peace, Ukraine would be protected by NATO. Meanwhile, this is also the time when the fighting started getting more intense, and for the first time in the SMO, the Russian army started advancing with an actual formed frontline.

        Last June, when Putin met with African leaders he published the draft of the peace deal which apparently was signed by the Ukrainian foreign minister and other negotiators. . The peace deal said that Russia would retreat from all territory taken after February 23, Ukraine would commit to having further talks regarding Crimea and autonomy of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine would enshrine neutrality in its constitution. Russia would provide some aid for rebuilding areas damaged by war. This is the most generous peace deal Ukraine could ever hope for. And they walked away from it at the behest of the West, which spent 8 years arming Ukraine and financing the fascists taking over, so this war could happen.

          • OrnluWolfjarl@lemmygrad.ml
            242·
            8 months ago

            Just to point out that you can actually understand what Russian geopolitical strategic goals are from the way their military is deployed and operates on the battlefield:

            • Want to force Ukraine into a quick peace: Rapid mechanized groups make a bee-line for Kiev, some key areas are surrounded. Accept equipment losses from poor logistics but get to besiege the enemy capital while preventing escape of government from it. Then retreat from areas you can’t hold long-term anyway, as a show of good faith. Western media interpreted this as “Ukrainian army fighting bravely and beating back the Russians who are doing stupid maneuvers and losing (abandoning due to lack of fuel/repair parts) tanks by the hundreds”

            • Want to occupy Donetsk and Luhansk: Forces regroup and form a solid offensive line. Surround major population centers and cut off logistics for Ukrainian forces. Then when enemy ammo, food and water is low, open relief corridors for civilians and let Ukrainian soldiers use them to escape. Then move in the town/city and take it with reduced resistance, causing minimal damage to population and infrastructure. At this point, Ukraine starts pumping out “war zone reports” that are staged to paint Russian soldiers as barbaric and also hide the fact that the Ukrainian army can not hold onto towns. On the other hand, people of Donetsk and Luhansk welcome them as heroes and the rebuilding begins. Guess which story the Western media chose to propagate.

            • Want to incorporate Kherson, Zhaporyzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk into Russia: Russian forces understand that they are in danger of overextending their lines. They pause advances and start preparing defenses on the front and behind it. They shift troop concentrations to the areas under control that they plan on annexing into Russia. Meanwhile, they make small-scale attacks across the frontline to probe for weaknesses and keep Ukrainian forces on the defensive. They organize the civilian administration of the 4 areas they control and start rebuilding everything. The population supports them and approves the referenda to join the Russian Federation. Ukraine fails to disrupt this process as they are kept on the defensive. Western media chose to portray this as “fake referenda done at gun-point” and that Ukrainian forces are regrouping for major offensives. Which happen in winter and push Russian forces back from Kharkov and Izium. The Russians didn’t like this, but they had predicted it might happen, during their troop movements, as they prioritized keeping the 4 new Russian regions safe, by paying with reduced security in an area meant to be a buffer zone.

            • Want to drain Ukrainian manpower and equipment (denazify Ukraine): After liberating Luhansk and most of Donetsk, Ukrainian resistance became much stiffer, while serious NATO aid is arriving, which allowed the Ukrainian victory at Kharkov and Izium. Russia no longer cares about occupying more land. They make offensive and defensive plans that are designed to cause losses to Ukrainian forces instead. They draw Ukrainian forces into badly-defended positions they can’t retreat from, then pummel them. That’s how Bakhmut, Mariupol, Avdeevka, and the Verbove-Robotyne defense to the vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive became such disasters for Ukraine. Surround positions, pummel areas surrounding the positions with artillery to cut off supplies, make Ukrainian government commit politically to fighting in these places, then move in and focus on killing/wounding/capturing Ukrainian soldiers instead of taking territory quickly. Out in the open let the front-lines remain static, map them out using drones, satellites and recon, then pummel anything that moves with artillery and air forces. Increase artillery shell and drone production to levels where you can overwhelm Ukrainian artillery and armored forces every time they try to be active anywhere near the front line. The result is that now, the Ukrainian army is torn to pieces, with some estimates showing between 1 and 2 million Ukrainian losses (dead, wounded, captured). This has also caused Western support to wane. Even Western media are coming to realize what is going to happen.

            • Putin declares that all the lands up to Kiev were historically part of Russia (the future): Now that Ukrainian forces are mostly irrelevant, Russians have the strategic initiative. They’ve already began probing attacks all along the front line which are succeeding in pushing the Ukrainians back. A major offensive is probably coming in the summer, which will possibly see Russia capturing Odessa, Dnipro and Slaviansk/Kramatorsk. Russia will then likely launch offensives into Sumy, Poltava, Kharkov and Cherkasy.

  • Anarcho-Bolshevik@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
    331·
    8 months ago

    Then, on Tuesday, Zelenskyy signed some additional parts to an old mobilization law tightening the legal requirements for draft-age Ukrainian men to register their details, and lowering the minimum age for call-up from 27 to 25.

    I’m shocked that he lowered it to 25 instead of 0. Doesn’t he want to win the war?

    • Addfwyn@lemmygrad.ml
      24·
      8 months ago

      I am legitimately surprised it isn’t in the 16-18 range at this point yet. Though I would not be surprised if some teenagers have been conscripted anyway.

  • darkcalling@lemmygrad.ml
    291·
    8 months ago

    Honestly hope it happens soon.

    US House is indicating they’ll pass the 60 billion of funding Biden wants but part of it will be as a loan (which apparently makes it more appealing to Republican hogs despite the fact they already own the country and if it loses big enough they’ll never collect) which I’m sure they’ll accept.

    And lately they’re talking in even more deranged tones of preventing a Trump presidency from disrupting the war funding by upping that 60 billion to a 100 billion commitment which is just very funny when these people claim to respect democracy except when it could get in the way of their war wants. (Also in light of the fact of how corrupt Ukraine is and how much of that would be stolen if delivered up front though they might be smart enough to put it in a fund that dispenses it over time)

    The only thing that is going to bring the Ukrainians to the negotiating table and to act reasonably towards Russia is the end of funding. And until that happens Russia is going to have to deal with a significant troop deployment that costs money and terror attacks.

    • KiG V2@lemmygrad.ml
      18·
      8 months ago

      I will say the Ukranians have been ready to negotiate, only Uncle Sam yanks their leash violently to heel every time they’ve tried

  • DankZedong @lemmygrad.ml
    231·
    8 months ago

    The West really thought they did a thing here, didn’t they? Hundreds of billions down the drain, destabilizing your own countries and finally finding out how much your NATO equipment is worth in actual combat.