It’s by a conflict researcher who identifies different red flags leading him to believe that US is on a brink of serious civil unrest and a potential civil war. He identifies several factors such as economic decline, and rise of right wing extremism being cultivated by republican media.
I was actually surprised to see such a lucid analysis in a conservative paper:
As returns to labour have stagnated and returns to capital have soared, much of the U.S. population has fallen behind. Inflation-adjusted wages for the median male worker in the fourth quarter of 2019 (prior to the infusion of economic support owing to the COVID-19 pandemic) were lower than in 1979; meanwhile, between 1978 and 2016, CEO incomes in the biggest companies rose from 30 times that of the average worker to 271 times. Economic insecurity is widespread in broad swaths of the country’s interior, while growth is increasingly concentrated in a dozen or so metropolitan centres.
He also notes polarization across the party lines where both sides simply blame the other party for all the problems. This polarization coupled with 400 million firearms is basically a powder keg.
This is a good insight as well
Democracy is an institution, but underpinning that institution is a vital set of beliefs and values. If a substantial enough fraction of a population no longer holds those beliefs and values, then democracy can’t survive.
Once a significant percentage of the population stops believing in the social contract then the system collapses.
He expects that the system could collapse by 2025 causing extreme domestic political instability, including widespread civil violence. By 2030, if not sooner, the country could be governed by a right-wing dictatorship.
I really doubt that it will still be a single, unified country by 2030. It will probably split into at least half a dozen of states once the central government collapses.
That’s the best case scenario in my opinion. What’s concerning is that the states appear to be fairly split internally, and once federal government collapses things could get violent fast.
I find that doubtful. The US has gone through much worse just in the 20th century without a split. The one time when it came truly close to disintegrating was just 85 years from its founding and when regional identities were much stronger than they are now.
do you have a tl;dr?
It’s by a conflict researcher who identifies different red flags leading him to believe that US is on a brink of serious civil unrest and a potential civil war. He identifies several factors such as economic decline, and rise of right wing extremism being cultivated by republican media.
I was actually surprised to see such a lucid analysis in a conservative paper:
He also notes polarization across the party lines where both sides simply blame the other party for all the problems. This polarization coupled with 400 million firearms is basically a powder keg.
This is a good insight as well
Once a significant percentage of the population stops believing in the social contract then the system collapses.
He expects that the system could collapse by 2025 causing extreme domestic political instability, including widespread civil violence. By 2030, if not sooner, the country could be governed by a right-wing dictatorship.
I really doubt that it will still be a single, unified country by 2030. It will probably split into at least half a dozen of states once the central government collapses.
The Divided States of America.
That’s the best case scenario in my opinion. What’s concerning is that the states appear to be fairly split internally, and once federal government collapses things could get violent fast.
I find that doubtful. The US has gone through much worse just in the 20th century without a split. The one time when it came truly close to disintegrating was just 85 years from its founding and when regional identities were much stronger than they are now.