Um…I don’t mean to be rude and i don’t like to assume everyone is keeping up to date with the whole Ukraine situation, but i think you’re still thinking in terms of the circumstances of the first few months of the conflict. The scenario you suggest with Ukraine giving up just the Donbass was an option until around late summer last year or so, but by now we’re way past that. Russia has already incorporated all of the Donbass and two more additional Oblasts. That’s a done deal, the referendums have been held, they’re written into the Russian constitution. The only question remaining is whether they will leave it at that or go even further. I would give the latter 70-30 odds, not because the Russians want to take more but because Ukraine and its NATO handlers will force their hand.
The only scenario in which the territorial losses remain limited to the four already annexed oblasts is if Ukraine were to recognize the reality that it has lost this war and needs to accept all of Russia’s non-negotiable demands, which are permanent neutrality, demilitarization, regime change and recognition of territorial realities. And they need to do this soon before the situation for them deteriorates even further and the terms that Russia imposes are even harsher. But barring some sort of black swan event like a military coup there is very little chance of that happening since the Nazi junta in Kiev is both delusional and desperate, and NATO has no motivation to end this either, so they will keep fighting just like the OG Nazis did, probably until they meet a similar end.
The only scenario in which the territorial losses remain limited to the four already annexed oblasts is if Ukraine were to recognize the reality that it has lost this war
How about the scenario in which Poland moves its military to annex liberate western Ukraine?
I am not sure Russia (and Belarus, who would view that as a very dangerous and threatening move and may even be the ones who will petition Russia to launch a joint operation to intervene to stop it) would allow that, but if they do then it will be because they have decided to do away with Ukraine altogether. And that may trigger some of the more fanatical Ukrainian nationalists to decide that they want to fight the Poles too if they perceive Poland to be moving toward annexation of the Banderite heartland. For all these reasons and more this is much too messy a proposition even for the insane Poles, so i put the odds of that scenario fairly low.
Um…I don’t mean to be rude and i don’t like to assume everyone is keeping up to date with the whole Ukraine situation, but i think you’re still thinking in terms of the circumstances of the first few months of the conflict. The scenario you suggest with Ukraine giving up just the Donbass was an option until around late summer last year or so, but by now we’re way past that. Russia has already incorporated all of the Donbass and two more additional Oblasts. That’s a done deal, the referendums have been held, they’re written into the Russian constitution. The only question remaining is whether they will leave it at that or go even further. I would give the latter 70-30 odds, not because the Russians want to take more but because Ukraine and its NATO handlers will force their hand.
The only scenario in which the territorial losses remain limited to the four already annexed oblasts is if Ukraine were to recognize the reality that it has lost this war and needs to accept all of Russia’s non-negotiable demands, which are permanent neutrality, demilitarization, regime change and recognition of territorial realities. And they need to do this soon before the situation for them deteriorates even further and the terms that Russia imposes are even harsher. But barring some sort of black swan event like a military coup there is very little chance of that happening since the Nazi junta in Kiev is both delusional and desperate, and NATO has no motivation to end this either, so they will keep fighting just like the OG Nazis did, probably until they meet a similar end.
Thank you for informing me.
How about the scenario in which Poland moves its military to
annexliberate western Ukraine?I am not sure Russia (and Belarus, who would view that as a very dangerous and threatening move and may even be the ones who will petition Russia to launch a joint operation to intervene to stop it) would allow that, but if they do then it will be because they have decided to do away with Ukraine altogether. And that may trigger some of the more fanatical Ukrainian nationalists to decide that they want to fight the Poles too if they perceive Poland to be moving toward annexation of the Banderite heartland. For all these reasons and more this is much too messy a proposition even for the insane Poles, so i put the odds of that scenario fairly low.