It will depend on how Iran responds. The reports are that the strikes didn’t accomplish much of anything, and apparently Iranian AD worked. So, Iran might leave it be at that. The question is if Israel will continue trying to do more provocations now to get a response from Iran that would force the US to come in to help. Seeing how things are not going well for them in Lebanon, they might be having second thoughts though.
So when does this escilate to a full regional war
It will depend on how Iran responds. The reports are that the strikes didn’t accomplish much of anything, and apparently Iranian AD worked. So, Iran might leave it be at that. The question is if Israel will continue trying to do more provocations now to get a response from Iran that would force the US to come in to help. Seeing how things are not going well for them in Lebanon, they might be having second thoughts though.
I think Iran and Lebanon are doing all they can to not poke the bear too much.
Israel is losing support, at least so far, though USA is staunchly for them, with some hiccups here and there.
I think they’ll wait until there’s more shakiness among the Western alliance.
Think: how Italy put a ban on weapons sales to Israel and how France and Israel are at loggerheads due to the damage to property there.