I think it’s important to understand that Marxist-Leninists should be supporting the people of both countries, rather than picking one of two capitalist states to back. I understand that Russia has its excuses for doing this, and the Ukraine government has its excuses for what it has done, but it’s important to remember that they are both capitalist countries in the age of imperialism; what they are really after is power. Please feel free to correct me if you believe I got anything wrong.
You could not be more wrong. We have no love for the national bourgeois regime ruling in Russia at the moment but it is essential to understand that in the present geopolitical situation any destabilization of Russia that could lead to its weakening or to regime change would be a disaster.
And before you start thinking that maybe this would not be so bad considering communists have in the past made use of such situations to launch a revolution, let me assure you the communist forces in Russia are not nearly strong or organized enough yet to be able to take advantage of a destabilization of Russia’s present government, but the liberal NGOs are always ready and waiting. We would not see a second 1917 but a second 1991, another color revolution that will bring about such total subjugation to neoliberalism and imperialism, and such internal devastation and civil conflicts that it will make the 90s seem like “the good old days” in comparison.
Because if Russia falls to the imperialist onslaught China will 100% be next on the list. Russia is the single biggest obstacle standing in the way of western imperialism waging all out hybrid war on China. Russia protects China’s flank and stabilizes Central Asia, keeps the region safe from color revolutions and safeguards the vital BRI corridor from Asia to Europe. If the US were to succeed in fracturing Russia or enacting regime change, that would mean the end of the BRI in Eurasia, which would mean China’s only Achilles heel would be exposed: its vulnerability to blockade and being cut off from the resources and markets it needs to maintain its enormous population and economy. Slowly but surely China’s might would wither away.
So in fact you should very much be concerned whether Russia survives as a state or not. China sure is. They recognize Russia’s importance and their pivotal role as an economic partner and military ally. At the present moment national bourgeois regimes are not the primary contradiction in the world.
Western imperialist global hegemony is the primary contradiction that is standing in the way of socialist revolutions today.