Oil is their primary export. Having to sell it at deep discount is not going to dig them out of the enormous trade imbalance that the sanctions have created. They need better prices for oil at this time, not worse.
I read somewhere that USA government are worry because if oil prices grown up (see last JP Morgan report: expected prices are near $200, if I’m not wrong).
So: if Russia sell oil with discount to China/India, but the price has increased 40% it’s possible Russia doesn’t be hurt. But, in the other side, western economies should buy oil 40% expensive ;-)
The same for gas, cereals, platinum and lot of commodities.
The difference between Italian and Russian economy is obvious: the second is rich on resources and could be more independent/autarkic than first. Even more, public debt of Russian is between 20-30% and Italian I think should be between 120-140%.
USA has several strong points, because is another big country with lots of resources (specially gas, petrol…). But what about European allies?? They are weak and will suffer a lot… I guess they will suffer more than Russia.
But for Capitalism there is a common “nuclear button”, the debt burble. If this economic crisis make it explode: bye bye the happy years ;-)
Price inflation is happening in all sectors in the USA. That’s just transferring wealth to the corporations, which have seen record profits, even with supply pipeline disruptions of the pandemic. So, gas prices being pumped up because of whatever crisis is nothing new.
There’s no way any amount of inflation is going to counter the sanctions, though. Russia will sit on the sidelines and watch the hogs feast. And then sell whatever amount of oil it’s permitted to. Remember what happened when they tried to play chicken with the Saudis.
Oil accounts for a small portion of the overall Russian economy, and Russia isn’t in any way dependent on its oil exports to function. Here are a couple of charts to help you understand the reality of Russian economy:
On the other hand, Europe depends on Russia for 41% of gas, 47% of solid fuel, and 27% of oil. Given there aren’t any real alternatives to this, Europe will have no choice but to start buying Russian energy exports in the long run.
And of course, it’s important to note that rouble trading low internationally means that sales in euros even at low prices translate to bigger domestic profits for the government.
To think that they are not dependent on trade is absurd. No country is self-sufficient. Even if Russia becomes a rogue state like North Korea, cut off from all other nations.
Russian aggression is an opportunity for Europe to free itself from carbon dependence. More likely, however, is that American gas will sweep in and fill the vacuum. In any case, Europe is best served not relying on an energy partner that waves nuclear threats around like a grumpy toddler that doesn’t get it’s way.
What part of it’s a small percentage of their overall economy are you struggling with here?
What’s absurd is to think that they’re dependent on trade with the west after they literally spent 8 years decoupling themselves from the west.
Russia isn’t going to become like North Korea because pretty much the only nations that are refusing to trade with them are western nations. The two most populous nations are China and India, both are going to keep trading with Russia.
What we will actually see happen is that there will no longer be a single global economy based around the western system. This will directly lead to western economy shrinking because it will no longer be part of all the trade that happens outside of it, and this will lead to lower borrowing power of the dollar. This is precisely why every single western banker begged not to do this.
Meanwhile, go read up on the actual logistics of shipping gas to Europe from US. Real life isn’t like the fantasy land you appear to inhabit.
It’s headed straight there. Obama’s all-too-subtle sanctions dropped Russia’s GDP below the state of California. And yet they still imagine themselves a fierce bear. Russia is on par with Italy’s economy now. You don’t see Italy putting on such airs.
The current sanctions are far more than Russia planned for. Putin said as much. Taking your ball and going home isn’t going to work. BRICS was viable when one fifth wasn’t a global pariah. But these other members aren’t going to sacrifice their trade with the West, just to support a bloodthirsty regime. It’s bad for business.
Once again you show yourself to be utterly misinformed. Russian currency was incredibly undervalued in the west creating an impression of a much smaller economy than it really is. In practice, the economy is actually bigger than that of Germany in real terms.
There is absolutely zero evidence for the statement that the current sanctions are more than Russia planned for. It’s also absolutely ridiculous to think that Russia went to war without considering what the worst case outcomes would be. Would love to see the reference to Putin actually saying what you’re claiming he said.
You have an overinflated idea of the role the west plays in the world, and in the coming months you’re going to have to come to grips with reality.
The sorry state of the Russian military belies your confidence. How many air craft carriers does Russia have? Oh, that’s right… the only one they had got wrecked in the only dry dock they had able to hold it. You can’t make this stuff up. It’s hilarious.
Liquid gas supplied by USA need lots of vessels to transport but, worse, lots of gas process plants on the Europe docks. And only Spain has a significant number of them. I don’t know, and it could be interesting, how much liquid gas can be processed right now. Or even how much gas can be moved with the existent vessels. Updated data could be appreciated :-p
The blocks (west/east) game is a silly game in the just started scarcity era. The probable end will be a nuclear war.
Oil is their primary export. Having to sell it at deep discount is not going to dig them out of the enormous trade imbalance that the sanctions have created. They need better prices for oil at this time, not worse.
I read somewhere that USA government are worry because if oil prices grown up (see last JP Morgan report: expected prices are near $200, if I’m not wrong).
So: if Russia sell oil with discount to China/India, but the price has increased 40% it’s possible Russia doesn’t be hurt. But, in the other side, western economies should buy oil 40% expensive ;-)
The same for gas, cereals, platinum and lot of commodities.
The difference between Italian and Russian economy is obvious: the second is rich on resources and could be more independent/autarkic than first. Even more, public debt of Russian is between 20-30% and Italian I think should be between 120-140%.
USA has several strong points, because is another big country with lots of resources (specially gas, petrol…). But what about European allies?? They are weak and will suffer a lot… I guess they will suffer more than Russia.
But for Capitalism there is a common “nuclear button”, the debt burble. If this economic crisis make it explode: bye bye the happy years ;-)
Price inflation is happening in all sectors in the USA. That’s just transferring wealth to the corporations, which have seen record profits, even with supply pipeline disruptions of the pandemic. So, gas prices being pumped up because of whatever crisis is nothing new.
There’s no way any amount of inflation is going to counter the sanctions, though. Russia will sit on the sidelines and watch the hogs feast. And then sell whatever amount of oil it’s permitted to. Remember what happened when they tried to play chicken with the Saudis.
Oil accounts for a small portion of the overall Russian economy, and Russia isn’t in any way dependent on its oil exports to function. Here are a couple of charts to help you understand the reality of Russian economy:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271373/distribution-of-the-workforce-across-economic-sectors-in-russia/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1235291/legal-entity-revenue-by-industry-in-russia/
On the other hand, Europe depends on Russia for 41% of gas, 47% of solid fuel, and 27% of oil. Given there aren’t any real alternatives to this, Europe will have no choice but to start buying Russian energy exports in the long run.
And of course, it’s important to note that rouble trading low internationally means that sales in euros even at low prices translate to bigger domestic profits for the government.
It’s their top export:
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus/
To think that they are not dependent on trade is absurd. No country is self-sufficient. Even if Russia becomes a rogue state like North Korea, cut off from all other nations.
Russian aggression is an opportunity for Europe to free itself from carbon dependence. More likely, however, is that American gas will sweep in and fill the vacuum. In any case, Europe is best served not relying on an energy partner that waves nuclear threats around like a grumpy toddler that doesn’t get it’s way.
What part of it’s a small percentage of their overall economy are you struggling with here?
What’s absurd is to think that they’re dependent on trade with the west after they literally spent 8 years decoupling themselves from the west.
Russia isn’t going to become like North Korea because pretty much the only nations that are refusing to trade with them are western nations. The two most populous nations are China and India, both are going to keep trading with Russia.
What we will actually see happen is that there will no longer be a single global economy based around the western system. This will directly lead to western economy shrinking because it will no longer be part of all the trade that happens outside of it, and this will lead to lower borrowing power of the dollar. This is precisely why every single western banker begged not to do this.
Meanwhile, go read up on the actual logistics of shipping gas to Europe from US. Real life isn’t like the fantasy land you appear to inhabit.
It’s headed straight there. Obama’s all-too-subtle sanctions dropped Russia’s GDP below the state of California. And yet they still imagine themselves a fierce bear. Russia is on par with Italy’s economy now. You don’t see Italy putting on such airs.
The current sanctions are far more than Russia planned for. Putin said as much. Taking your ball and going home isn’t going to work. BRICS was viable when one fifth wasn’t a global pariah. But these other members aren’t going to sacrifice their trade with the West, just to support a bloodthirsty regime. It’s bad for business.
Once again you show yourself to be utterly misinformed. Russian currency was incredibly undervalued in the west creating an impression of a much smaller economy than it really is. In practice, the economy is actually bigger than that of Germany in real terms.
There is absolutely zero evidence for the statement that the current sanctions are more than Russia planned for. It’s also absolutely ridiculous to think that Russia went to war without considering what the worst case outcomes would be. Would love to see the reference to Putin actually saying what you’re claiming he said.
You have an overinflated idea of the role the west plays in the world, and in the coming months you’re going to have to come to grips with reality.
The sorry state of the Russian military belies your confidence. How many air craft carriers does Russia have? Oh, that’s right… the only one they had got wrecked in the only dry dock they had able to hold it. You can’t make this stuff up. It’s hilarious.
Remind me to resume this discussion in a month.
Liquid gas supplied by USA need lots of vessels to transport but, worse, lots of gas process plants on the Europe docks. And only Spain has a significant number of them. I don’t know, and it could be interesting, how much liquid gas can be processed right now. Or even how much gas can be moved with the existent vessels. Updated data could be appreciated :-p
The blocks (west/east) game is a silly game in the just started scarcity era. The probable end will be a nuclear war.
My hope would be that it becomes economic to invest in green energy instead.