Really depends on what you mean by loose, and what constitutes a win for Russia.
Russia’s original objective was to waltz to Kyiv and kick down a rotten door, expecting the house to follow. Well that didn’t work out, so what’s the new objective?
Is a win occupying all of Ukraine, just the peninsula, or just realizing the new territory in donbos? If you are talking about the peninsula or the breakaway territory, yea they could probably get away with that pretty easily, but that’s pretty much where we started. But, I would hesitate calling it a win to waste generations worth of military equipment and men to maintain the status quo.
If you are talking about permanently occupying the entirety of the country… I’m not really sure if that’s even an obtainable goal? They are still fighting for every kilometer in eastern Ukraine, and defences will only get tougher as you head west. Plus, they won’t want to utilize the type of bombardments they use to avoid urban combat in the larger eastern cities. At least not if they are the ones who are expecting to pay the bills when this is all over.
This whole venture is only profitable if they actually get to fully integrate Ukrainians into the Russian federation, and with how bloody this war has been, that means a significant occupation force, likely over half a million soldiers.
Win in my opinion would be have the ability to control all of Ukraine eventually, or force Ukaine to capitulate. Maybe they would not be able to occupy because that was never their goal, it was to stop Ukraine from joining nato.
Win in my opinion would be have the ability to control all of Ukraine eventually, or force Ukaine to capitulate.
I wouldn’t say they’re doing so well on the hearts and minds front…
As far as capitulation, that’s what we’re talking about here. What could they possibly capitulate too that would be considered a win at this point? Just about the only thing that would come close is the entirety of Ukraine, and maybe a chunk of Moldavia? That’s going to be an occupation, and everyone knows how well those go these days.
was to stop Ukraine from joining nato.
Okay, well mission accomplished. You stopped a neighboring nation from potentially joining, and scarred two other neighbors into the express lane.
Plus, I don’t think that’s really an academically honest opinion. It would be like saying America invaded Iraq because they had weapons of mass destruction.
A lot of Ukrainians were not really excited about NATO prosperity until Russia started pulling the same shenanigans they did in Georgia and Moldavia. It’s not exactly a new tactic in Russia’s foreign policy.
I wouldn’t say they’re doing so well on the hearts and minds front…
In Russia and Eastern Ukraine they did…
Plus, I don’t think that’s really an academically honest opinion. It would be like saying America invaded Iraq because they had weapons of mass destruction.
The US facilitated the coup in 2014 (at least there’s a smoking gun), Russia tried to join NATO 3 times and got denied, domestically Navalny got propped up by the west. The writing was on the wall…unlike Iraq
A lot of Ukrainians were not really excited about NATO prosperity until Russia started pulling the same shenanigans they did in Georgia and Moldavia. It’s not exactly a new tactic in Russia’s foreign policy.
You’re reversing cause and effect. First there was the prospect of joining NATO for Ukraine and Georgia then the war in Georgia happened as a response/protest from russia.
Also you’re admitting that the a lot of Ukrainian were not excited about joining NATO, why push for it anyway… not really democratic. Sounds what a puppet government would do
Ahh yes, murdering the opposition into compliance, definitely winning the hearts and minds there. It’s not like tens of thousands of Russian men of service age fled the draft or anything.
As far as eastern Ukraine… "Girkin was one of the commanders in Russia’s annexation of Crimea, which immediately followed the revolution. In an interview on 22 January 2015, he explained that Russian media falsely portrayed Crimeans as supporting the annexation; Girkin said a majority of the local administration, law enforcement and army were opposed to it.[45][46] Girkin stated that under his command, the rebels “collected” deputies into the chambers, and had to “forcibly drive the deputies to vote [to join Russia]”.
Sounds real democratic…
The US facilitated the coup in 2014 (at least there’s a smoking gun)
And Russia was facilitating the ruling Ukrainian oligarchy, the only real difference was that America didn’t put boots on the ground when they got politically outmaneuvered.
Russia tried to join NATO 3 times and got denied
They didn’t try to join NATO three times. In the early 00’s and as a response to the war on terrorism Russia began running joint exercises, establishing the NATO Russian joint council.
domestically Navalny got propped up by the west.
How so?
You’re reversing cause and effect. First there was the prospect of joining NATO for Ukraine and Georgia then the war in Georgia happened as a response/protest from russia.
You’re talking about 08’ Bucharest Summit? The Russian federation was still in a join council with NATO at the time, and neither Ukraine nor Georgia were a priority to him, they were mainly focusing on Kosovo.
Actual public support for joining NATO only started after 2014, after the events in Georgian, and as a response to the Russian backed separation movement.
Ukrainian were not excited about joining NATO, why push for it anyway… not really democratic. Sounds what a puppet government would do
You’re asking why they wanted to join NATO for protection when they already have Russians occupying parts of their eastern territory?
The vast majority of Ukrainians did not want to join in 08’ nor would it have been possible with their current government. Even after their 2014 election, and actual public interest increased, they still had to make major changes to their judiciary system before they would even be considered.
Finally, even if we accept the rhetoric from Russia that NATO was the reason they facilitated the succession in eastern Ukraine, that doesn’t explain why they invaded the rest of the country. It isn’t possible for a country to join NATO while they are engaged in territorial disputes. So why destroy your neighbors when the goal is already accomplished?
This all started because in 04 Ukraine was tired of being a defacto vassal state to Russia. The country that had been propping up oligarchic leaderships with deep ties to Russian capital since the fall of the Soviet Republic. Once Putin couldn’t hold down the eastern blok with soft power alone, he used the only tools left to him, subversive hard power.
I just don’t really understand why you give the state the benefit of doubt, considering their historic relations with their neighbors in the caucuses and eastern Europe.
Ahh yes, murdering the opposition into compliance, definitely winning the hearts and minds there.
Putin is undeniably popular in Russia, having reversed neoliberal policies and bringing political stability after yeltsins shock therapy.
Crimea: That’s a lot of people no?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgMZBjgCFHo
they got politically outmaneuvered.
Ukraine seems to be a pawn in your worldview. Ok.
They [Russia] didn’t try to join NATO three times.
You missed how Navalny was propped up by the West??
You’re asking why they wanted to join NATO for protection when they already have Russians occupying parts of their eastern territory?
You’re talking about 08’ Bucharest Summit? The Russian federation was still in a join council with NATO at the time, and neither Ukraine nor Georgia were a priority to him
NATO–Russia relations stalled and subsequently started to deteriorate, following the Ukrainian Orange Revolution in 2004–2005 and the Russo-Georgian War in 2008.
2004–2007
In the years 2004–2006, Russia undertook several hostile trade actions directed against Ukraine and the Western countries (see #Trade and economy below). Several highly publicised murders of Putin’s opponents also occurred in Russia in that period, marking his increasingly authoritarian rule and the tightening of his grip on the media (see #Ideology and propaganda below).
In 2006, Russian intelligence performed an assassination on the territory of a NATO member state.[citation needed] On 1 November 2006, Alexander Litvinenko, a British-naturalised Russian defector and former officer of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) who specialised in tackling organized crime and advised British intelligence and coined the term “mafia state”, suddenly fell ill and was hospitalised after poisoning with polonium-210; he died from the poisoning on 23 November.[55] The events leading up to this are well documented, despite spawning numerous theories relating to his poisoning and death. A British murder investigation identified Andrey Lugovoy, a former member of Russia’s Federal Protective Service (FSO), as the main suspect. Dmitry Kovtun was later named as a second suspect.[56] The United Kingdom demanded that Lugovoy be extradited, however Russia denied the extradition as the Russian constitution prohibits the extradition of Russian citizens, leading to a straining of relations between Russia and the United Kingdom.[57]
Subsequently, Russia suspended in 2007 its participation in the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.
2008
Meeting of the NATO–Russia council in Bucharest, Romania on 4 April 2008
In 2008, Russia condemned the unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo,[58] stating they “expect the UN mission and NATO-led forces in Kosovo to take immediate action to carry out their mandate … including the annulling of the decisions of Pristina’s self-governing organs and the taking of tough administrative measures against them.”[59] Russian President Vladimir Putin described the recognition of Kosovo’s independence by several major world powers as “a terrible precedent, which will de facto blow apart the whole system of international relations, developed not over decades, but over centuries”, and that “they have not thought through the results of what they are doing. At the end of the day it is a two-ended stick and the second end will come back and hit them in the face”.[60] Europe was not unanimous in this matter, and a number of European countries have refused to recognise the sovereignty of Kosovo, while a number of further European nations did so only to appease the United States.[citation needed]
Nevertheless, the heads of state for NATO Allies and Russia gave a positive assessment of NATO-Russia Council achievements in a Bucharest summit meeting in April 2008,[61] though both sides have expressed mild discontent with the lack of actual content resulting from the council.
In early 2008, U.S. President George W. Bush vowed full support for admitting Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, to the opposition of Russia.[62][63] The Russian Government claimed plans to expand NATO to Ukraine and Georgia may negatively affect European security. Likewise, Russians are mostly strongly opposed to any eastward expansion of NATO.[64][65] Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stated in 2008 that “no country would be happy about a military bloc to which it did not belong approaching its borders”.[66] Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin warned that any incorporation of Ukraine into NATO would cause a “deep crisis” in Russia–Ukraine relations and also negatively affect Russia’s relations with the West.[67]
Relations between NATO and Russia soured in summer 2008 due to Russia’s war with Georgia. Later the North Atlantic Council condemned Russia for recognizing the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions of Georgia as independent states.[68] The Secretary General of NATO claimed that Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia violated numerous UN Security Council resolutions, including resolutions endorsed by Russia. Russia, in turn, insisted the recognition was taken basing on the situation on the ground, and was in line with the UN Charter, the CSCE Helsinki Final Act of 1975 and other fundamental international law;[69] Russian media heavily stressed the precedent of the recent Kosovo declaration of independence.
Except that the US said last week that Ukraine WILL join NATO. Its an astounding stupid move when that is precisely what Russia doesnt want to happen. Biden is such a fuck up its astounding. Literally that dick head is pushing us directly into WW3.
Except that the US said last week that Ukraine WILL join NATO.
I wonder why?
Its an astounding stupid move when that is precisely what Russia doesnt want to happen.
No one wanted to join NATO before Russia started experimenting with their break away tactics in Georgia in 08’. Before then most of the time when NATO offered membership the country would reject them. It’s actually not really that great of a deal, unless you are afraid of actually being attacked.
Literally that dick head is pushing us directly into WW3.
Ahh yes, the belligerent party who started all this has no autonomy nor responsibility over its own actions.
You are so ignorant as to the situation that I dont know where to start… I would recommend that you read Scott Hortons book “Provoked” because you just have a basic lack of understanding what is happening.
Oh shit, you’re right. Russia doesn’t want that, so I guess we should just let them have what they want.
What are you on about? This is a war in which Russia, unprovoked, invaded its neighbor to grab land, bodies, ports, and food. Russia is going to share multiple borders with NATO when this is over; the question is just whether the border is the Ukrainian border or the Polish border. If either of those scenarios results in World War 3, odds are pretty good both of them do. There’s simply no universe in which NATO allows Russia to take over all of Eastern Europe (again). Even if the fascists take the US in November, Europe will pour everything it has into stopping Putin’s advance.
Sure, Ukraine probably “loses” in the end, in one way or another. By many measures they’ve already lost. But it’s not a binary proposition. The point of propping up Ukraine at this stage is as much about forcing Russia to spend its fighting ability on Ukraine now, instead of in WW3. This desire is part of the reason that capitulating, conceding some land, and letting Russia regroup for a decade before doing a better job next time is only palatable with Ukraine in NATO. The threat of a world war is the only thing that would stop Russia from repeating this bullshit every ten to twenty years for another five generations.
This was not said by Russia, it was said by US General Milley to the US Congress, when he lost his marbles at first when the war started. Later it surfaced as popular cope when NATO shills found a second to breathe.
Sorry if you cant handle the truth, its just the objective reality of the facts.
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As told by all the mainstream western media buddy.
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No, it’s your opinion.
Its the opinion of everyone that has any level of information of the situation and is honest.
Really depends on what you mean by loose, and what constitutes a win for Russia.
Russia’s original objective was to waltz to Kyiv and kick down a rotten door, expecting the house to follow. Well that didn’t work out, so what’s the new objective?
Is a win occupying all of Ukraine, just the peninsula, or just realizing the new territory in donbos? If you are talking about the peninsula or the breakaway territory, yea they could probably get away with that pretty easily, but that’s pretty much where we started. But, I would hesitate calling it a win to waste generations worth of military equipment and men to maintain the status quo.
If you are talking about permanently occupying the entirety of the country… I’m not really sure if that’s even an obtainable goal? They are still fighting for every kilometer in eastern Ukraine, and defences will only get tougher as you head west. Plus, they won’t want to utilize the type of bombardments they use to avoid urban combat in the larger eastern cities. At least not if they are the ones who are expecting to pay the bills when this is all over.
This whole venture is only profitable if they actually get to fully integrate Ukrainians into the Russian federation, and with how bloody this war has been, that means a significant occupation force, likely over half a million soldiers.
Win in my opinion would be have the ability to control all of Ukraine eventually, or force Ukaine to capitulate. Maybe they would not be able to occupy because that was never their goal, it was to stop Ukraine from joining nato.
I wouldn’t say they’re doing so well on the hearts and minds front…
As far as capitulation, that’s what we’re talking about here. What could they possibly capitulate too that would be considered a win at this point? Just about the only thing that would come close is the entirety of Ukraine, and maybe a chunk of Moldavia? That’s going to be an occupation, and everyone knows how well those go these days.
Okay, well mission accomplished. You stopped a neighboring nation from potentially joining, and scarred two other neighbors into the express lane.
Plus, I don’t think that’s really an academically honest opinion. It would be like saying America invaded Iraq because they had weapons of mass destruction.
A lot of Ukrainians were not really excited about NATO prosperity until Russia started pulling the same shenanigans they did in Georgia and Moldavia. It’s not exactly a new tactic in Russia’s foreign policy.
In Russia and Eastern Ukraine they did…
The US facilitated the coup in 2014 (at least there’s a smoking gun), Russia tried to join NATO 3 times and got denied, domestically Navalny got propped up by the west. The writing was on the wall…unlike Iraq
You’re reversing cause and effect. First there was the prospect of joining NATO for Ukraine and Georgia then the war in Georgia happened as a response/protest from russia.
Also you’re admitting that the a lot of Ukrainian were not excited about joining NATO, why push for it anyway… not really democratic. Sounds what a puppet government would do
Ahh yes, murdering the opposition into compliance, definitely winning the hearts and minds there. It’s not like tens of thousands of Russian men of service age fled the draft or anything.
As far as eastern Ukraine… "Girkin was one of the commanders in Russia’s annexation of Crimea, which immediately followed the revolution. In an interview on 22 January 2015, he explained that Russian media falsely portrayed Crimeans as supporting the annexation; Girkin said a majority of the local administration, law enforcement and army were opposed to it.[45][46] Girkin stated that under his command, the rebels “collected” deputies into the chambers, and had to “forcibly drive the deputies to vote [to join Russia]”.
Sounds real democratic…
And Russia was facilitating the ruling Ukrainian oligarchy, the only real difference was that America didn’t put boots on the ground when they got politically outmaneuvered.
They didn’t try to join NATO three times. In the early 00’s and as a response to the war on terrorism Russia began running joint exercises, establishing the NATO Russian joint council.
How so?
You’re talking about 08’ Bucharest Summit? The Russian federation was still in a join council with NATO at the time, and neither Ukraine nor Georgia were a priority to him, they were mainly focusing on Kosovo.
Actual public support for joining NATO only started after 2014, after the events in Georgian, and as a response to the Russian backed separation movement.
You’re asking why they wanted to join NATO for protection when they already have Russians occupying parts of their eastern territory?
The vast majority of Ukrainians did not want to join in 08’ nor would it have been possible with their current government. Even after their 2014 election, and actual public interest increased, they still had to make major changes to their judiciary system before they would even be considered.
Finally, even if we accept the rhetoric from Russia that NATO was the reason they facilitated the succession in eastern Ukraine, that doesn’t explain why they invaded the rest of the country. It isn’t possible for a country to join NATO while they are engaged in territorial disputes. So why destroy your neighbors when the goal is already accomplished?
This all started because in 04 Ukraine was tired of being a defacto vassal state to Russia. The country that had been propping up oligarchic leaderships with deep ties to Russian capital since the fall of the Soviet Republic. Once Putin couldn’t hold down the eastern blok with soft power alone, he used the only tools left to him, subversive hard power.
I just don’t really understand why you give the state the benefit of doubt, considering their historic relations with their neighbors in the caucuses and eastern Europe.
Putin is undeniably popular in Russia, having reversed neoliberal policies and bringing political stability after yeltsins shock therapy. Crimea: That’s a lot of people no? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgMZBjgCFHo
Ukraine seems to be a pawn in your worldview. Ok.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule That’s at least one, not gonna do you the effort to find you the other ones
You missed how Navalny was propped up by the West??
NATO–Russia relations stalled and subsequently started to deteriorate, following the Ukrainian Orange Revolution in 2004–2005 and the Russo-Georgian War in 2008. 2004–2007
In the years 2004–2006, Russia undertook several hostile trade actions directed against Ukraine and the Western countries (see #Trade and economy below). Several highly publicised murders of Putin’s opponents also occurred in Russia in that period, marking his increasingly authoritarian rule and the tightening of his grip on the media (see #Ideology and propaganda below).
In 2006, Russian intelligence performed an assassination on the territory of a NATO member state.[citation needed] On 1 November 2006, Alexander Litvinenko, a British-naturalised Russian defector and former officer of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) who specialised in tackling organized crime and advised British intelligence and coined the term “mafia state”, suddenly fell ill and was hospitalised after poisoning with polonium-210; he died from the poisoning on 23 November.[55] The events leading up to this are well documented, despite spawning numerous theories relating to his poisoning and death. A British murder investigation identified Andrey Lugovoy, a former member of Russia’s Federal Protective Service (FSO), as the main suspect. Dmitry Kovtun was later named as a second suspect.[56] The United Kingdom demanded that Lugovoy be extradited, however Russia denied the extradition as the Russian constitution prohibits the extradition of Russian citizens, leading to a straining of relations between Russia and the United Kingdom.[57]
Subsequently, Russia suspended in 2007 its participation in the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. 2008 Meeting of the NATO–Russia council in Bucharest, Romania on 4 April 2008
In 2008, Russia condemned the unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo,[58] stating they “expect the UN mission and NATO-led forces in Kosovo to take immediate action to carry out their mandate … including the annulling of the decisions of Pristina’s self-governing organs and the taking of tough administrative measures against them.”[59] Russian President Vladimir Putin described the recognition of Kosovo’s independence by several major world powers as “a terrible precedent, which will de facto blow apart the whole system of international relations, developed not over decades, but over centuries”, and that “they have not thought through the results of what they are doing. At the end of the day it is a two-ended stick and the second end will come back and hit them in the face”.[60] Europe was not unanimous in this matter, and a number of European countries have refused to recognise the sovereignty of Kosovo, while a number of further European nations did so only to appease the United States.[citation needed]
Nevertheless, the heads of state for NATO Allies and Russia gave a positive assessment of NATO-Russia Council achievements in a Bucharest summit meeting in April 2008,[61] though both sides have expressed mild discontent with the lack of actual content resulting from the council.
In early 2008, U.S. President George W. Bush vowed full support for admitting Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, to the opposition of Russia.[62][63] The Russian Government claimed plans to expand NATO to Ukraine and Georgia may negatively affect European security. Likewise, Russians are mostly strongly opposed to any eastward expansion of NATO.[64][65] Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stated in 2008 that “no country would be happy about a military bloc to which it did not belong approaching its borders”.[66] Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin warned that any incorporation of Ukraine into NATO would cause a “deep crisis” in Russia–Ukraine relations and also negatively affect Russia’s relations with the West.[67]
Relations between NATO and Russia soured in summer 2008 due to Russia’s war with Georgia. Later the North Atlantic Council condemned Russia for recognizing the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions of Georgia as independent states.[68] The Secretary General of NATO claimed that Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia violated numerous UN Security Council resolutions, including resolutions endorsed by Russia. Russia, in turn, insisted the recognition was taken basing on the situation on the ground, and was in line with the UN Charter, the CSCE Helsinki Final Act of 1975 and other fundamental international law;[69] Russian media heavily stressed the precedent of the recent Kosovo declaration of independence.
Except that the US said last week that Ukraine WILL join NATO. Its an astounding stupid move when that is precisely what Russia doesnt want to happen. Biden is such a fuck up its astounding. Literally that dick head is pushing us directly into WW3.
I wonder why?
No one wanted to join NATO before Russia started experimenting with their break away tactics in Georgia in 08’. Before then most of the time when NATO offered membership the country would reject them. It’s actually not really that great of a deal, unless you are afraid of actually being attacked.
Ahh yes, the belligerent party who started all this has no autonomy nor responsibility over its own actions.
You are so ignorant as to the situation that I dont know where to start… I would recommend that you read Scott Hortons book “Provoked” because you just have a basic lack of understanding what is happening.
Oh shit, you’re right. Russia doesn’t want that, so I guess we should just let them have what they want.
What are you on about? This is a war in which Russia, unprovoked, invaded its neighbor to grab land, bodies, ports, and food. Russia is going to share multiple borders with NATO when this is over; the question is just whether the border is the Ukrainian border or the Polish border. If either of those scenarios results in World War 3, odds are pretty good both of them do. There’s simply no universe in which NATO allows Russia to take over all of Eastern Europe (again). Even if the fascists take the US in November, Europe will pour everything it has into stopping Putin’s advance.
Sure, Ukraine probably “loses” in the end, in one way or another. By many measures they’ve already lost. But it’s not a binary proposition. The point of propping up Ukraine at this stage is as much about forcing Russia to spend its fighting ability on Ukraine now, instead of in WW3. This desire is part of the reason that capitulating, conceding some land, and letting Russia regroup for a decade before doing a better job next time is only palatable with Ukraine in NATO. The threat of a world war is the only thing that would stop Russia from repeating this bullshit every ten to twenty years for another five generations.
This is where it all breaks apart, the war was provoked and avoidable, if you dont understand that the me telling you anything is pointless.
Im all for the facts but wasn’t Russia supposed to win in 3 days? I have a hard time believing much of what they say, in my honest opinion
That was claimed by a US official, which US media distorted and lied about to make it look like that claim came from Russia.
This was not said by Russia, it was said by US General Milley to the US Congress, when he lost his marbles at first when the war started. Later it surfaced as popular cope when NATO shills found a second to breathe.
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