https://www.thespacereview.com/article/2326/1

How about this?

Let’s assume that there was no evacuation in February 1996, resulting in a great number of casualties, for instance 500, as rumored in the West. Such casualties should be mostly in Mayelin because the next nearby village, Qianjin, had only a few dozen people, and is behind a hill that would have been able to block the shock wave. A little further away is a small town and the MCCC where no large damage or casualties were reported. Also, at 3:00 am, people were very unlikely to be working in their fields. In the case of Mayelin, considering its population growth in recent years, the number of residents 17 years ago should be reasonably predicted to be between 500 and 1,000, or even less. If 500 died there, Mayelin would have become a dead village for many years, or even never allowed to exist because of safety reasons. But it was not. It is hard to believe its population continues to grow and even doubled following the catastrophe.

Also, there were so many people who lived nearby the launch center, or who were involved in the launch and rescue operation. But there has been not a single piece of evidence on the Internet indicating heavy casualties during the last 17 years. China’s Internet has become an open space for public opinion with increasing freedom. It is difficult to cover up a disaster on such a scale, even it happened 17 years ago. Another piece of evidence supporting the smaller casualty number is what the Vice-Commander said in the MCCC a few hours after the accident. Whether the initial death number was “seven” or “several”—which are similar in Chinese pronunciation—it was obtained through a quick check. Considering the efficiency and capability of China’s centralized management system, a large error in the number is unlikely. Furthermore, just one year before (in 1995), a CZ-2E exploded during launch and its debris killed six people. It would be quite illogical to not to enforce evacuation after such a launch failure, especially for the maiden flight of a new vehicle. All of these facts tend to lead to a conclusion that evacuation was indeed performed, though not as strictly as it should have been, and most villagers had survived.