Not so sure about the purges. The Russian state is pretty soft and liberal these days. I think we will see a significant number of terrorist attacks initially before Russia decides to properly crack down. By that point though these Banderite terrorists will have discredited themselves with the majority of Ukrainians since their attacks will primarily harm other Ukrainians, so Russia won’t encounter much resistance from the population.
Right, any sort of a partisan movement requires support from the general public, and I just can’t see that happening. Another thing to consider is that Ukraine may simply cease to exist as a state. Russia will absorb friendly and neutral territories in the east, while Hungary, Poland, and Romania will grab the ones in the west. That seems like an increasingly likely scenario.
How will the western powers receive the compensation that they think is owed to them if what remains of Ukraine is absorbed by the surrounding NATO countries?
These countries would still mine the resources, and in fact this is a strong incentive for them to do land grabs as it would be seen as a way to bring economic growth by developing these regions. Powers like US would of course prefer a rump Ukraine where they could do this on the cheap, but they might not have the pull at this point to stop the partitioning.
Not so sure about the purges. The Russian state is pretty soft and liberal these days. I think we will see a significant number of terrorist attacks initially before Russia decides to properly crack down. By that point though these Banderite terrorists will have discredited themselves with the majority of Ukrainians since their attacks will primarily harm other Ukrainians, so Russia won’t encounter much resistance from the population.
Right, any sort of a partisan movement requires support from the general public, and I just can’t see that happening. Another thing to consider is that Ukraine may simply cease to exist as a state. Russia will absorb friendly and neutral territories in the east, while Hungary, Poland, and Romania will grab the ones in the west. That seems like an increasingly likely scenario.
How will the western powers receive the compensation that they think is owed to them if what remains of Ukraine is absorbed by the surrounding NATO countries?
These countries would still mine the resources, and in fact this is a strong incentive for them to do land grabs as it would be seen as a way to bring economic growth by developing these regions. Powers like US would of course prefer a rump Ukraine where they could do this on the cheap, but they might not have the pull at this point to stop the partitioning.