Now that we have final numbers. It appears that Harris had all the white & black support she needed for an EC victory. But Trump outright flipping Latino men and making huge gains with Latino women seems to have made all the difference.
What do you think?
First image is 2024, second is 2020.
Please be careful whenever you ask these questions. It’s so easy to blame one single minority group for a widespread failure. Of course analysis of individual voting groups is legitimate, as long as you properly frame what you’re doing.
This is a serious issue both because of the connection with racism (i.e., it’s the Latinos’ fault) and abdication of responsibility (i.e., we bear no responsibility).
White people are so obsessed with blaming an optgroup like what about all the white guys that voted for him
A functional, coherent working class policy would’ve ticked some of those numbers in the campaign’s favor across the board without even having to divide by race or gender.
As a data analyst, the way the two graphs are setup terribly. There’s really not enough information to come up with any conclusions from the charts.
Also, first, there’s not enough information from the graphs to determine the situation since it’s only by percentages and not population. Second, our system is based on the winners of each state and used by the electoral votes. So overall popular vote isn’t going to determine who got elected, even if the chart showed all blue for all demographics.
Don’t forget all the people who voted for Biden in 2020 and didn’t fucking vote in 2024
15 million of them. That is a staggering number.
15 million of them. That is a staggering number.
It’s also not an accurate number. The official count for Biden in 2020 was about 81.3 million (found many places online, but the official one is a good choice) and the unofficial count for Harris by AP so far is about 74.3 million. That’s about 7 million, which is less than half of what you claimed.
People have got to stop just posting straight up false information. If you don’t know, don’t post.
It would be more appropriate to say outdated. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/11/13/20-million-votes-election-harris-trump-fact-check/76136743007/ As of November 6th 16 million less votes than the year before had been counted.
No, if you said it a week ago it would be outdated. The fact that you’re still saying it is what makes it false. As you point it out new information is available. You’re just using old information still.
By comparison if I wrote a book in the 1600s about the medical necessity of leaching, that would be outdated today. If I wrote a book about the medical necessity of leaching in 2024 that would just be false.
We both know the reasonable way to interpret your post, and the way nearly everybody would interpret it, is that that’s the current or final count. It’s also outdated to say 74 million fewer people voted for Harris, but at one point, that was in fact the count. But it’s more than outdated - it’s misleading to the point of being factually inaccurate to any observer.
I can’t believe instead of being like “oh shit, I made a mistake, my bad, I better think for a second about this in the future” you’re going to try to justify it. Whatever, that’s social media at this point I guess. Surely I’m not the problem, says everybody feeding misinformation in a giant circle. I thought Lemmy might be better, but it’s just not. Thank you for convincing me to finally give all social media up.
Your narrative is that Latinos “shifted right” but I think this is a false framing- it was the Biden/Harris administration that shifted hard right on its proposed immigration policies and it left many Latino voters feeling politically abandoned.
Look at the Democrats’ 2024 immigration bill- it is deportations, immigration quotas, and building the wall - while including nothing “left of center” such as amnesty. It is literally a Trump 2016 wishlist.
I think you’re trying to force a narrative on to this that doesn’t exist. You’re assuming that many of these Latino voters are against harder immigration policy. Polls are telling us the opposite. Poles are telling us that a lot of these Latinos that voted for Trump want this. They didn’t think Biden was too strong on immigration they thought he was too weak.
This literally makes no sense. That immigration bill was bipartisan. And if Latinos felt Dems shifted to far right (which is laughable if you actually look at the policies), why would they vote even further right? THAT MAKES NO SENSE!
wow, you answer one question about abortion by saying immigrants are rapists and suddenly people feel abandoned. tsk tsk.
So the solution to not liking the democrat shift right is to join in with the side off the scale right? I’m not following the logic there…
I’m not proposing a “solution” here, but the logic is obvious: as the Democratic Party moves to the right, their traditional base becomes more alienated and less incentivized to vote.
A lot of Latinos are fairly conservative people, a lot of them are strongly Catholic with all of the baggage that comes with it, etc.
Basically the only major policy reason they ever leaned towards the democrats is immigration, so with the Dems going further right on immigration it makes a lot of sense for some of them to be jumping ship
Populist messaging is popular because it acknowledges that people are suffering and offers easy “solutions” to it.
Most folks don’t actually want to hear the details, they’re both busy and don’t fucking understand it without the benefits of a educational system that has been systemically destroyed for decades.
Trump said he’ll fix the economy and blamed Biden, Harris wanted to pretend that the lines went up so things were good because she was effectively burdened as an incumbent candidate.
Harris decentivized her base of support by chasing Lucy’s football of Republicans that aren’t fucking fascists, going after the Cheney votes of all fucking things, Trump siphoned votes from people that don’t quite know how to fix the problem but know there is a problem.
You can point to Harris’s specific policies all you want, the people you need to get to the polls and vote for you don’t know about them because they’re boring.
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I think white men and white women bear more of the blame here purely by population size.
As another White Dude for Harris, I concur entirely. It’s definitely an issue with white dudes.
With how thin our election margins are, I wonder if literally just misogynists can swing the election. Would 1 in 100 Americans refuse to vote for a woman for president? I think maybe yes.
It’s hard to separate out the factors. Would a man have also struggled with a campaign starting so late (and doing so poorly in a previous primary). Would a white women? How can we separate out the influence of race, sex and the less than ideal running circumstances.
Given who she is, and running when she had to, she actually did pretty damn well.
Tbh looking for blame beyond Biden seems pointless to me. She has every sign of having been able to win over more people had she been prepped as the nominee from the start…
Agreed. Despite all the nuances (which are important, too)… Judging by this table, the biggest total blame is on white men, followed by white women and latino men, though there aren’t that many of them. But I feel i need to say this doesn’t have anything to do with ethnicity. You could also make a chart of city vs rural areas or several other factors and you’d probably also find interesting correlations and shifts in opinion.
Latines now make up 20% of the U.S. population, making them the largest minority group. Among the under-18 demographic, that number climbs to nearly 30%. If current population trends hold, Latines are poised to become the largest ethnic group in the country within about 25 years—that’s just three presidential terms away.
While Latines are a minority ethnicity, they are the largest one and the second-fastest growing, trailing only Asians. Asians, despite having one of the lowest birth rates, experience the highest proportional rate of immigration. Notably, Trump gained 12% of the Asian vote in the most recent election, a trend across these growing demographics that, if sustained, could spell significant gains for Republicans in the future.
However, let’s not overlook the broader electoral picture. Black, Asian, and Latine men and women combined make up about 29% of the voting public in presidential elections, while white women alone account for a staggering 37-38%. For context, Latino men represent just 5-6% of voters. White women are, by far, the largest voting demographic.
In 2016, 39% of white women voted for Trump.
In 2020, 44% of white women voted for Trump.
In 2024, 53% of white women voted for Trump.
I’m all for blaming minorities for the democrats sagging support (I’m not), but if white women had voted in 2024 as they did in 2016—when Trump was first elected—every single Latino man in the country could have voted for Trump, and Kamala Harris would still have received more votes overall from the white-voman vote.
So, while it’s easy to scapegoat minorities for this mess, the data suggests we might look elsewhere if we’re pointing fingers.
Dude where are you getting your data? Trump won white women by 52% in 2016.
If he had lost white women like you posted, he would’ve lost the election.
Who’s talking blame?
White Dude for Harris here. I am sad face
“Are we out of touch with our core voters?”
“No, it’s the voters who are wrong”.
This will probably be how the Democrats regroup after the loss.
The fact that any group aside from white men voted for trumpism is the issue. The disconnect was the complicit main stream media sane washing the craziness. They put racism/homophobia/fascism on the same level as Harris’ policies.
Idk, white folks voting for Trump is an issue if you ask me, a white guy. Too many white folks sane washing his shit. Morning Joe went from “he’s a fascist” to “let’s put out differences aside”. Other whities need to realize this is a grift that will likely kill your own.
I object!
White men voting for trumpism is also the issue.
For sure, though I get the op point that at least Trump pretends to promise them something unlike every other group
Need some titles on those columns. I’m guessing red/blue are the usual party colors, but what is the 3rd?
The biggest factor really is disengagement. There where millions who where involved in 2020 that just skipped out this time.
3rd is the percentage of the vote amongst all demographics.
Why are columns 1 & 2 shifter between the two images? Makes comparison harder.
The winner is always on the left. But yeah I get it.
The 3rd column might be the relative share of citizens or registered voters.
To actually answer the post title you’d have to go state by state in the swing states to see if she could flip enough of them to make a difference. I suspect the bigger problem is still lack of turnout rather than any specific demographic.
Only 4% of Latino men shifted. That chart says Latino men were 5% of the total vote. Harris needed more than another .02%
I think you’re getting confused by the column placement. This appears to be a 19 point shift towards Trump which seems substantial.
Yup… You’re right. 19% of 5% is 0.95%.
Much more, but not enough to tip the scales.
The 1st and 2nd columns swap between the elections.
I don’t think this is what you intended OP but we should be careful not to blame voters here. Trump and his enablers are to blame for what he does, not voters.
That said, this is interesting. The shift to Trump among most communities was tiny, which could explain why most people were so surprised by this outcome. But why did Latinos shift to the right so much? That’s what I’d like to know.
The shift in the other category was also huge. Are those mostly Asian voters?
I’m not blaming anyone, I’m just pointing out the actual data and asking how & why? For example,
White turnout increased this election, but trump lost some white men & women support again like he did in 2020. And it appears Harris did bettter with white women than Obama, Hillary or Biden. The white vote didn’t change that much.
Black turnout was slightly down, and Trump was able to make a small 2% gain from black men, which isn’t much considering they made up 5% of the electorate this election.
As for the “other” demo. It’s every other ethnicity, but none of them are really big enough to have really big impact unless a specific state has a very large percentage of them and they all go overwhelmingly one way.
So I’m just saying, the only big outlier I see is the Latino vote. Which shifted HUGE for trump, and it appears that’s what won him the election. And I’m asking is that true? And if so, why? Compared to other demos.
It is also crazy that I lived long enough to see more Latino men vote Republican than white women 😂
Do some rough math say there are 200,000,000 total eligible voters.
2024 would have 12,000,000 male Latino voters 2020 would have 10,000,000 based on the 3rd column
Even if 100% went left to right at most you have a 12M shift.
That shift though in absolute numbers was far less than that though based on the R/D split, so not a tremendous impact over all.
There was just a lot less people showing up over all for any reason.
