What’s become clear is that despite an incredibly wide-ranging package of sanctions on the Russian government and its oligarchs, and an exodus of foreign businesses, the actions are largely toothless if foreigners keep guzzling Russian oil and natural gas – supporting the ruble by stocking Putin’s coffers. Even as Russia remains mostly cut off otherwise from the global economy, Bloomberg Economics expects the country will earn nearly $321 billion from energy exports this year, up more than a third from 2021.
I think there are a few factors. The fact that the west needs energy is a big one. Rouble is also backed by hard commodities and getting internationalized. Some of the largest countries, like China and India, are continuing to trade with Russia. Russian domestic economy appears to be robust, and western companies moving out is simply opening up room for local companies to take over. Overall, Russian economy appears to be more robust than the west right now.
The futures market paints a similar picture, so people don’t think it’s short term either.
I’m actually quite surprised. It’s fair to assume sanctions would harm businesses, so what’s changing the price of the Ruble?
Edit: It’s the gas (No paywall)
I think there are a few factors. The fact that the west needs energy is a big one. Rouble is also backed by hard commodities and getting internationalized. Some of the largest countries, like China and India, are continuing to trade with Russia. Russian domestic economy appears to be robust, and western companies moving out is simply opening up room for local companies to take over. Overall, Russian economy appears to be more robust than the west right now.