Serious post here, what are your predictions? Do the US sign on for a subscription to Hitler or Hitler+? What makes you believe this?

My take: Harris eeks out a victory, based on the vibes I get. She may flip NC too. I think that second part because the overall trend of polling has had her slowly increasing on average there. AZ is flipping back to Trump this go around.

Second possibility I see is that the electoral college shenanigans the GOP is angling for in NE actually results in the first ever tie. Supreme court gives it to Trump even though he loses the popular vote. Libs say “ah well, never the less”.

Either way, I think there’s going to be hog riots in MI, PA, and NC if it flips.

  • ComradeSharkfucker
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    2 months ago

    I really think we will end up with Harris but only because Trump just isn’t funny enough this time. He’s lost touch tbh

    • Justice@lemmygrad.ml
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      2 months ago

      He’s really not funny anymore. He also has no clue how to talk about policy in the general region of Palestine without doing like 8 tropes about the Jews and how much he did “for them.” And on abortion he’s been forced into this totally made up shit about “everybody hating Roe v Wade” and he solved the issue!..

    • UlyssesT [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      2 months ago

      trump-moist still has a coin-toss chance because the needle of approval hasn’t even budged no matter how shriveled and dry and low energy he’s become. His supporters are roughly the same way. That’s their guy.

      • Adkml [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        2 months ago

        Yea the people voting for him like the fact that he’s barely intelligible because the less coherent he is the more it pisses off the libs when they say they’re still boring for him.

        That and elevating a demented embodiment of white privellage above a (at least on paper) reasonably competent black women is kinda their whole deal. Showing that mediocre white men are still at the top of the pyramid is very important to mediocre white people.

        Like unless Trump wakes up and is literally transformed into a black female that starts talking about institutional racism he’s their guy. Hell he could start saying he’s a black women and his base would fucking love it, it would increase his support.

  • ReadFanon [any, any]@hexbear.net
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    2 months ago

    It’s gonna be down to the wire imo.

    Kamala has lost steam and there’s such desperation from the voteshamers that I think most of her supporters have at least some degree of latent awareness that she isn’t capable of drawing in support outside of her base, either to the right of her or to the left.

    Donald is low energy but almost all of his base is willing to hold their nose and vote for him, which drives the Blue MAGA crowd wild with envy. I really don’t look at that end of US politics much at all because it’s gross and I don’t have the stomach for it, plus it achieves nothing whereas there’s a chance I might be able to peel off the occasional progressive whereas conservatives are low yield per input so my take is that it’s a waste of time focusing on them. (Don’t get me wrong I’ll agitate anyone opportunistically, even a diehard Trump supporter, but I’m really not focusing my energy on honing my rhetoric and hooking in to their primary concerns because there are much easier targets out there.)

    I think in it being such a close race it’s probably going to come down to one of those key states falling to one side or the other and who really knows which way the chips are going to fall in that situation?

    If Trump wins I think he’ll lose the popular vote though.

    If this happens, I’m going to blame the Dems for how they had the opportunity to abolish the electoral college, to make the presidential election a popular vote, and establishing ranked-choice voting to instead push through military aid and financial relief to support the genocide in Gaza as their top priority which means Joe Biden chose this and now we have to respect that choice and live with the consequences of it because Biden and Harris didn’t want to listen to the voter base.

  • moonlake [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    2 months ago

    It’s gonna be Kamabla and it’s not even close.

    1. The job of the USA president is to look good on TV. That’s literally the entire job. Or at least to not look like a complete fucking idiot. You can bomb a hospital like Obama did, you just have to look presidential while doing it. Kamabla is the perfect candidate because she puts a progressive face on a genocidal empire.

    2. Americans yearn for brunch. They don’t care that the horrors will continue happening. They just don’t want to hear about the horrors. They think “if we elect adults in the room, then we no longer have to hear about all the horrible shit that our country is doing.”

    3. People want to feel good about themselves. They want to feel like their country has a future. Electing the first woman president, who is also a POC, is a feel-good story. When USA does horrible things, it allows libs to say “This is not my fault, I voted for the black lady.” She is a part of an oppressed minority, therefore it’s physically impossible for her to be a genocidal oppressor who does the same shit as all presidents before her. Get ready for Woke Fascism™.

    part-of-history

  • booty [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    2 months ago

    Harris is very evil and unlikeable but she just can’t lose to Trump. The boy’s lost his moisture. He just ain’t got it in him anymore. I honestly think Hillary would beat him at this point. He was getting pretty pathetic before the assassination attempt and he can’t stop shitting his pants ever since

  • queermunist she/her
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    2 months ago

    It’s gonna be Hitler+ and it’s going to come down to Georgia, which just got some fucked voting rules installed. Election officials have to hand count everything before a certification date, and no one knows what happens if they exceed that date.

  • barrbaric [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    2 months ago

    Harris wins popular vote, if it comes down to 1-2 states that are particularly close GOP will rig it like 2000 and Trump wins.

    Assuming a Harris victory, Dems lose either house or senate, for the next 4 years fascist Harris supporters explain that she could have solved all the world’s ills if only you’d voted harder. All the while migrants and LGBT people are put into camps in any states controlled by Republicans, Dems do nothing to oppose this.

    • Adkml [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      2 months ago

      I don’t think enough chance is being given to the Republicans losing but successfully stealing it again like in 2000 while the dems go “aww shucks”.

      And I’m not talking like 2016 where they claim republicans cheated because people posted racist Facebook memes I’m talking the dems get more electoral votes, Republicans say “yea well fuck you” and the Supreme Court uses their usual level of historical precedent to say actually black peoples votes only count as 3/5ths of white people so trump wins.

  • SadArtemis [she/her]@hexbear.net
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    2 months ago

    If the US has enough collective decency and humanity (ie. people voting 3rd party or abandoning the farce of electoralism entirely) Trump will probably win. Admittedly I don’t have faith in that, so I’d probably expect Klanmala to win (though it could go either way).

    Disregarding morality and decency- they’re still both absolutely terrible, but if the YanKKKees were a sensible lot (lol), even if still shitty as always, they would probably vooot for Trump to at least try to throw a wrench in the WW3 machine. I have absolutely zero confidence in the collective US’ intelligence, so ultimately I don’t think this will factor in in any particularly meaningful way, though.

  • DamarcusArt@lemmygrad.ml
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    2 months ago

    Plot twist: It’ll be some random corn farmer from Iowa who runs as an independent and inexplicably gets 69% of the vote.

  • BodyBySisyphus [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    2 months ago

    Gaming it out on 270towin.com, assuming Harris takes NV, WI, and PA and Trump gets NC, GA, and AZ, that might make the whole election hinge on Muslim voters in MI.

    Not an enviable position to be in. If they go third party or abstain and throw the election to Trump, Blue MAGA will jump at the excuse to be more racist, and if they hold their nose and vote for Kamala they have to live with the fact that it won’t do anything to stop the genocide.

    I’m thinking the democrats lose at least the senate and possibly the house to boot, so domestic policy is going to be a write-off (not that the dems have a ton to show for the last four years)

    • live with the fact that it won’t do anything to stop the genocide.

      I mean, there’s no hope for any president to do the right thing. Only difference I can tell is that there’s rumors of Trump promising to support annexing the West Bank to Sheldon Adelson’s widow in exchange for a shit ton of PAC money. That’s one thing I can only assume Harris would do something about, but at this rate who knows. Domestic, it’s concentration camps with a thin veneer of civility, or turbo concentration camps with no mask. Abortion is still illegal in many states and they’ll do nothing at the Fed level - this feels like the carrot on the end of the stick is now in the hands of libs, whereas chuds finally got what they wanted. Versus Trump will absolutely try to push for a fed ban.

      • BodyBySisyphus [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        2 months ago

        I don’t think abortion moves the needle too much this round. The Republicans have been pretty quiet and, while it does drive turnout when it’s on the ballot, I think most people are still viewing it as a local issue.

        Biden was successful in 2020 because the dems were highly successful at painting him as the safe option. That’s not really part of the messaging this time, so I think it’s going to be like 2016, where it’s a question of what a few key constituencies in a few strategic areas are thinking. Muslims in MI are definitely one, folks affected by the hurricane may be another, some randos in PA that didn’t constitute a coherent bloc until now and who therefore were not sampled well in polls might be a third.

        The only question mark around the chuds is how motivated they are to turn out because there’s zero chance they get flipped, and they tend to be reliable voters who want to see their guy in charge regardless of the presence of an agenda.

  • Adkml [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    2 months ago

    Frankly it’s hilarious it’s even close.

    Dems suck but it’s incredible they can’t at least conclusively wrap up an election against the most objectively stupid person to ever run for president… for a third time.