This paper examines the likely trajectory of the Ukraine war moving forward. I will address two main questions. First, is a meaningful peace agreement possible? My answer is no. We are now in a war where both sides – Ukraine and the West on one side and Russia on the other – see each other as an existential threat that must be defeated. Given maximalist objectives all around, it is almost impossible to reach a workable peace treaty. Moreover, the two sides have irreconcilable differences regarding territory and Ukraine’s relationship with the West. The best possible outcome is a frozen conflict that could easily turn back into a hot war. The worst possible outcome is a nuclear war, which is unlikely but cannot be ruled out.
It is a process for sure, but I think we’re already starting to see the initial effects and they’re going to snowball. One great example is that Saudis will now sell oil in yuan, and that directly shrinks demand for dollars since now countries don’t need to buy dollars to get oil. There will definitely be an increase in violence as the empire continues trying to keep a grip on the vassals states it still has. However, I also expect to start seeing a lot of civil unrest within the imperial core as we’re seeing with France right now.
Look at the effects of cutting off oil from Germany after the US blew up Nordstrom 2. Material conditions, everything impacted due to huge energy cost increase as they import LNG from the US
Things have a tendency to feed back, impacts cause further impacts and I think Marx would say this is a dialectical materialism function of history.
What’s great about it is we have a chance to win. Organize Unionize Strike and Fight.
Indeed, it’s a critical time for communists in the west to start organizing and educating people. This is the time to build a movement because the material conditions are ripe.