I don’t see what about the analysis here from 13 days ago has been invalidated as the situation has been developing over past two weeks. Perhaps you’d like to enlighten us on that?
Things did change though. Looking at maps from December 6th we were seeing attacks on Homs and rapid advances of the southern uprisings towards Damascus. The Israeli invasion was not really in the cards, the SNA/SDF battle over Manbij had not yet begun and it was entirely possible that SAA loyalist forces would make last stands in Damascus or Latakia.
If we were to broadcast potential for displacement from today it would be a different beast. You’re talking about uprisings in the north-east, potential entry of the Turks into SDF territory and the eventual ethnic cleansing that Israel is going to do. But all the major population centers are under control of a single faction now. The numbers would have to be different than back then.
If you straight up assume that Jolani’s government will turn into the Taliban at some point, then the numbers would be way higher than 1.5 million too.
Thanks for taking the time to answer in my stead before I found the time myself. That’s pretty much what i meant with my comment.
If someone makes a projection about something like climate change, then a few weeks don’t really affect the accuracy. But here within days of the article being posted we went from opposition forces capturing Hama (on Dec 5) to Assas fleeing the state, the capitol Damascus being taken and Israel doing their move. Not speaking of everything that has happened since, like Russia seemingly being in the process of moving out.
And it seemed to me that this was primarily estimating the impact that the conflict between regime and opposition forces could have. Which obviously has pretty much concluded. Whatever happens now is a whole other beast and as you said has the potential for way more drastic changes (both for better or worse).
My issue was never with the validity of the claim as made at the time of publication or the credibility.
Staying with UN sources then something a bit more recent like this article from Dec 17 seems more useful to post. To quote
“The recent escalation has only added to these needs,” Fletcher reported. More than one million Syrians were displaced in less than two weeks, while hundreds of civilians, including at least 80 children, have been killed or injured.
So instead of a projection into the future we now have an analysis of what seems to have happened.
Additionally it adds some more context like
Even before the recent dramatic events, Syria was one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises, with over 17 million people – or 70 per cent of the population – in need of assistance.
I’d argue that Israeli invasion was very much predictable given that they were already occupying Golan Heights. It was pretty obvious that they would try to expand their area of control as soon as central government fell. I’d also argue that Jolani faction isn’t actually governing much of anything. It’s just one of many different factions that are all fighting each other and that have different backers. So, yeah if anything the 1.5 million figure is very much a low ball estimate, and actual refugee crisis will be far greater.
Even if we agree that everything I listed was predictable all along (which I don’t think is fair, I mean there’s Israel being an expansionist Apartheid state, and then there’s the rest of the civil war proceeding as it did), it doesn’t change anything I said. If you’re making estimates on Dec 6th you aren’t gonna be like ‘it will be 1.5 million displaced people assuming the SAA folds without fighting a single battle’. You’ll say ‘considering the ongoing battles and the potential for further escalation, we estimate up to 1.5 million displaced people at this moment’.
I don’t see what about the analysis here from 13 days ago has been invalidated as the situation has been developing over past two weeks. Perhaps you’d like to enlighten us on that?
I’m betting its because the TV said that the “moderate” rebels are good
CIA handlers got Jolani to wear a suit now, the situation is clearly different. 😂
Things did change though. Looking at maps from December 6th we were seeing attacks on Homs and rapid advances of the southern uprisings towards Damascus. The Israeli invasion was not really in the cards, the SNA/SDF battle over Manbij had not yet begun and it was entirely possible that SAA loyalist forces would make last stands in Damascus or Latakia.
If we were to broadcast potential for displacement from today it would be a different beast. You’re talking about uprisings in the north-east, potential entry of the Turks into SDF territory and the eventual ethnic cleansing that Israel is going to do. But all the major population centers are under control of a single faction now. The numbers would have to be different than back then.
If you straight up assume that Jolani’s government will turn into the Taliban at some point, then the numbers would be way higher than 1.5 million too.
Thanks for taking the time to answer in my stead before I found the time myself. That’s pretty much what i meant with my comment.
If someone makes a projection about something like climate change, then a few weeks don’t really affect the accuracy. But here within days of the article being posted we went from opposition forces capturing Hama (on Dec 5) to Assas fleeing the state, the capitol Damascus being taken and Israel doing their move. Not speaking of everything that has happened since, like Russia seemingly being in the process of moving out.
And it seemed to me that this was primarily estimating the impact that the conflict between regime and opposition forces could have. Which obviously has pretty much concluded. Whatever happens now is a whole other beast and as you said has the potential for way more drastic changes (both for better or worse).
My issue was never with the validity of the claim as made at the time of publication or the credibility.
Staying with UN sources then something a bit more recent like this article from Dec 17 seems more useful to post. To quote
So instead of a projection into the future we now have an analysis of what seems to have happened.
Additionally it adds some more context like
I’d argue that Israeli invasion was very much predictable given that they were already occupying Golan Heights. It was pretty obvious that they would try to expand their area of control as soon as central government fell. I’d also argue that Jolani faction isn’t actually governing much of anything. It’s just one of many different factions that are all fighting each other and that have different backers. So, yeah if anything the 1.5 million figure is very much a low ball estimate, and actual refugee crisis will be far greater.
Even if we agree that everything I listed was predictable all along (which I don’t think is fair, I mean there’s Israel being an expansionist Apartheid state, and then there’s the rest of the civil war proceeding as it did), it doesn’t change anything I said. If you’re making estimates on Dec 6th you aren’t gonna be like ‘it will be 1.5 million displaced people assuming the SAA folds without fighting a single battle’. You’ll say ‘considering the ongoing battles and the potential for further escalation, we estimate up to 1.5 million displaced people at this moment’.
Like I said, I think 1.5 million is the lowest number, my expectation is that the actual number will be much higher.