[NB: check the byline as usual, thanks. /~Rayne] We’ve discussed in comments this past week the possibility Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will deeply affect the global wheat market. It’s already affected wheat futures pricing dramatically. But wheat futures are only the tip of the iceberg. We are looking at the unfolding of a world war […]
It’s pretty weird how nobody is talking about the impact the economic war is going to have on the west and particularly Europe. Russia has been preparing for this, it’s largely self sufficient for necessities, and it can get anything it needs from India and China. These are just plain facts.
On the other hand, Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for both food and energy as well as a multitude of other commodities. For example, things like chip production will be affected. I have to wonder how western public which is utterly convinced that it’s only Russia that will suffer will react as the prices for necessities continue to skyrocket and commodities start disappearing.
Are you really saying “dear poor people, actually, eating less is good for you?”. Wtf dude, I hope you can see yourself why this is an unbelievably bad take. Right now there are people in Europe who can’t afford to heat their apartments as is… three will not come anything good of this when countries like Germany rely to 50% on Russian gas and oil. It’ll be business as usual. The poorest and most disadvantaged people in our society will suffer first and suffer the most under this.
The west is not rich collectively with inequality being at some of the highest levels seen in history. This is precisely what’s leading to mass civil unrest across western nations already. Such a massive economic shock will most certainly take these systems to the breaking point.
It’s weird only if you think that Russia is important. It hasn’t been a superpower for thirty years and even then, it was a second rate one. Since then it’s found itself as a mafia state with some influence, but still an oversized ego. The sanctions will leave it as a rogue state. They’ll sit at the kid’s table with blustery North Korea, both waving nukes like baby rattles. Until the Russians do what they’ve always done, and overthrow their Tzar.
China needs it’s own chips. It’s not going to carry Russia at it’s own expense. And you imagine the rest of the world will notice? The pandemic has incentivized local manufacture again, so China will be dealing with it’s own economic problems. Just as their housing boom explodes. They’ll likely demand huge concessions from Russia in resources because of this. I hope, for your sake, your optimism doesn’t lead you to buy the dip once the Russian stock market opens again.
It’s weird that you don’t understand basic math or perhaps aren’t aware that Russia is a huge global exporter. You seem to be shamefully ignorant on the subject of Russia, yet you have very strong opinions about it. This is a classic example of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Meanwhile, China will most certainly become the biggest beneficiary of all this going forward. This conflict has finally pushed Russia firmly into Chinese sphere of influence and that means China has secured much of its food and energy needs. People have been predicting the collapse of China’s economy for like 30 years now, it’s adorable that people keep clinging to this narrative.
Finally, the pandemic didn’t actually result in any significant move towards local manufacture that I’m aware of. Perhaps you can provide some citations to support your claim there.
It’s neither though. Can Russia replace a single one of all the jets it lost today? Nope. It can’t make it’s own computer chips. That’s why they held back so long. But now, in desperation, they must risk them. In contested airspace, where they are getting picked off.
Is Russia hugely exporting anything? Not at the moment.
Are you suggesting Russia somehow forgot how to make jets? Russia has been making its own computer chips since 2014, and in fact its been their policy that all the military equipment must use domestic chips. You continue to show yourself to be an utter ignoramus on the subject of Russia. And yes, Russia is hugely exporting everything at the moment including to western countries. To put it bluntly, you’re an idiot who continues to spread misinformation on this site. Every comment you make is full of utter nonsense that can be disproved by two minutes of googling. You are a troll.
All those Russian jets shot down today are irreplaceable after the sanctions. They could hardly afford them before. Face it, mafia states aren’t very efficient if there’s corruption all down the line. Getting pissy doesn’t change the reality of it.
You keep repeating that because you don’t understand what you’re talking about. You are a shameless charlatan. Meanwhile, here’s what actual experts have to say about all this
The shipping giants are like commercial red blood corpuscles, carrying the oxygen-equivalent goods that allow the vital organs of the global economy to function.
The inability of Western firms to ship consumer goods to Russia will hurt, depriving them of what has become one of the world’s most lucrative markets. Of far more significance will be the inflation generated by the lack of commodity and raw material exports from Russia – not just energy, but food and metals.
Consider also that fertiliser is made using natural gas and potash – with Russia and its ally Belarus accounting for two fifths of the world’s potash exports. That explains why fertiliser prices are soaring across the Western world. And the resulting rise in cultivation costs will, inevitably, drive up food prices too.
Much has been made of the extent of the Western world’s sanctions – and rightly so. To see the likes of the US and UK joined by Switzerland and Japan in effectively declaring economic war on Russia is jaw-dropping.
Russia has a nominal GDP of $1.710 trillion (2021), which isn’t that big on the global scheme.
Now compare that to the state of Texas by iself has a nominal GDP of $2.0 trillion (2021). Canada has a bigger GDP of $2.016 trillion (2021).
Russia is really not in a position to sustain all these sanctions for an extended period of time.
According to The Economist, the Russian currency should’ve been worth around 70% more against the U.S. dollar than its current level of around as calculated using Big Mac Index. This means that real Russia’s economy is bigger than Germany’s. https://www.economist.com/big-mac-index
However, the more important part is that Russia is one of the biggest commodity exporters in the world, and there aren’t any readily available replacements. This includes things like food, fertilizer, titanium, energy, and many other things. This notion that Russia is some irrelevant country in the global scheme of things is beyond hilarious. And if you look at what’s happening to the global economy as we speak then you’ll see just how deranged this notion is.
It’s pretty weird how nobody is talking about the impact the economic war is going to have on the west and particularly Europe. Russia has been preparing for this, it’s largely self sufficient for necessities, and it can get anything it needs from India and China. These are just plain facts.
On the other hand, Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for both food and energy as well as a multitude of other commodities. For example, things like chip production will be affected. I have to wonder how western public which is utterly convinced that it’s only Russia that will suffer will react as the prices for necessities continue to skyrocket and commodities start disappearing.
deleted by creator
Are you really saying “dear poor people, actually, eating less is good for you?”. Wtf dude, I hope you can see yourself why this is an unbelievably bad take. Right now there are people in Europe who can’t afford to heat their apartments as is… three will not come anything good of this when countries like Germany rely to 50% on Russian gas and oil. It’ll be business as usual. The poorest and most disadvantaged people in our society will suffer first and suffer the most under this.
deleted by creator
The west is not rich collectively with inequality being at some of the highest levels seen in history. This is precisely what’s leading to mass civil unrest across western nations already. Such a massive economic shock will most certainly take these systems to the breaking point.
It’s weird only if you think that Russia is important. It hasn’t been a superpower for thirty years and even then, it was a second rate one. Since then it’s found itself as a mafia state with some influence, but still an oversized ego. The sanctions will leave it as a rogue state. They’ll sit at the kid’s table with blustery North Korea, both waving nukes like baby rattles. Until the Russians do what they’ve always done, and overthrow their Tzar.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-sanctions-russia-serve-china-sharp-reminder-need-its-own-chips-2022-02-25/
China needs it’s own chips. It’s not going to carry Russia at it’s own expense. And you imagine the rest of the world will notice? The pandemic has incentivized local manufacture again, so China will be dealing with it’s own economic problems. Just as their housing boom explodes. They’ll likely demand huge concessions from Russia in resources because of this. I hope, for your sake, your optimism doesn’t lead you to buy the dip once the Russian stock market opens again.
It’s weird that you don’t understand basic math or perhaps aren’t aware that Russia is a huge global exporter. You seem to be shamefully ignorant on the subject of Russia, yet you have very strong opinions about it. This is a classic example of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Meanwhile, China will most certainly become the biggest beneficiary of all this going forward. This conflict has finally pushed Russia firmly into Chinese sphere of influence and that means China has secured much of its food and energy needs. People have been predicting the collapse of China’s economy for like 30 years now, it’s adorable that people keep clinging to this narrative.
Finally, the pandemic didn’t actually result in any significant move towards local manufacture that I’m aware of. Perhaps you can provide some citations to support your claim there.
So Russia is self-sufficient and doesn’t need to trade or it’s a huge global exporter? Which is it?
Russia can be self sufficient and be a huge global exporter at the same time, what is the contradiction here exactly?
It’s neither though. Can Russia replace a single one of all the jets it lost today? Nope. It can’t make it’s own computer chips. That’s why they held back so long. But now, in desperation, they must risk them. In contested airspace, where they are getting picked off.
Is Russia hugely exporting anything? Not at the moment.
Are you suggesting Russia somehow forgot how to make jets? Russia has been making its own computer chips since 2014, and in fact its been their policy that all the military equipment must use domestic chips. You continue to show yourself to be an utter ignoramus on the subject of Russia. And yes, Russia is hugely exporting everything at the moment including to western countries. To put it bluntly, you’re an idiot who continues to spread misinformation on this site. Every comment you make is full of utter nonsense that can be disproved by two minutes of googling. You are a troll.
All those Russian jets shot down today are irreplaceable after the sanctions. They could hardly afford them before. Face it, mafia states aren’t very efficient if there’s corruption all down the line. Getting pissy doesn’t change the reality of it.
You keep repeating that because you don’t understand what you’re talking about. You are a shameless charlatan. Meanwhile, here’s what actual experts have to say about all this
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fbusiness%2F2022%2F03%2F06%2Feconomic-war-will-test-wests-resolve%2F
Russia has a nominal GDP of $1.710 trillion (2021), which isn’t that big on the global scheme. Now compare that to the state of Texas by iself has a nominal GDP of $2.0 trillion (2021). Canada has a bigger GDP of $2.016 trillion (2021).
Russia is really not in a position to sustain all these sanctions for an extended period of time.
According to The Economist, the Russian currency should’ve been worth around 70% more against the U.S. dollar than its current level of around as calculated using Big Mac Index. This means that real Russia’s economy is bigger than Germany’s. https://www.economist.com/big-mac-index
However, the more important part is that Russia is one of the biggest commodity exporters in the world, and there aren’t any readily available replacements. This includes things like food, fertilizer, titanium, energy, and many other things. This notion that Russia is some irrelevant country in the global scheme of things is beyond hilarious. And if you look at what’s happening to the global economy as we speak then you’ll see just how deranged this notion is.