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Cake day: December 16th, 2023

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  • For comparison SLS spent about 2 billion in taxpayer money per year in development costs, and in the 4 years since the development contract was awarded to spaceX, they’ve spent around 5 billion in taxpayer money in development costs. (~1.25 billion per year)

    For launch comparisons, the SLS can take a payload directly to the moon for 2.2 billion, while the proposed starship launch requires 10-12 refueling launches at ~1-2 million per launch (proposed, but falcon 9 heavy costs like 90 million per launch, so that puts it closer to 900 million-1.1 billion per combined launch)

    I don’t think it’s that much of a stretch in reality to question these costs.





  • It’s interesting axios specifically calls out the Homicide vs Violent crime statistic reliability:

    The big picture: Homicides are more straightforward to compare year-to-year from pre-2021 to the present because the criteria for classifying them have remained the same while police have changed their methods of recording other violent crimes. Beginning in 2021, the FBI and police departments started shifting to the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) from the decades-old Summary Reporting System (SRS). That allowed law enforcement agencies to submit more details on crimes like aggravated assaults but resulted in reported surges in violent crime in cities like Chicago and Minneapolis.

    I read a (weirdly antagonistically conspiracy-themed) article about the FBI recently having to revise their statistics in 2022: https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2024/10/16/stealth_edit_fbi_quietly_revises_violent_crime_stats_1065396.html

    It makes me wonder if we need to go back and revisit the last few years of crime statistics since they switched reporting structure to get a better idea of what’s going on…




  • Reminder that all these Chat-formatted LLMs are just text-completion engines trained on text formatted like a chat. You’re not having a conversation with it, it’s “completing” the chat history you’re providing it. By randomly(!) choosing the next text tokens that seems like they best fit the text provided.

    If you don’t directly provide, in the chat history and/or the text completion prompt, the information you’re trying to retrieve, you’re essentially fishing for text in a sea of random text tokens that seems like it fits the question.

    It will always complete the text, even if the tokens it chooses minimally fit the context, it chooses the best text it can but it will always complete the text.

    This is how they work, and anything else is usually the company putting in a bunch of guide bumpers to reformat prompts into coaxing the models to respond in a “smarter” way (see GPT-4o and “chain of reasoning”)



  • You don’t need to run the LLM on the device. It supports 13 different protocols for both text completion and chat completion.

    There’s also RisuAI which has some nicer features like better integration with function calling. Sillytavern is working on Function calling more but it’s not quite there yet.

    The nice thing about Sillytavern is that it also has plugins for Alltalk for TTS and ComfyUi/A1111 for image generation directly from the roleplay interface.

    It also has support for RAG through upload of documents and web scraping and a shitload of other features it would take awhile to list here.



  • Zelensky was elected in 2019 specifically on an anti-corruption platform and in the past 4 years even with the war going on he’s made (somewhat) steady progress towards that end.

    Admittedly the pressure from the US to clean up the administration in exchange for weapons has given Zelensky a lot more political leeway to oust corrupted officials.

    Also Statista is notorious for cherry-picking data and not presenting the whole story. If you dig deeper into The actual report you’ll see that Ukraine has been making steady gains against corruption since 2013. The organization even Specifically commends the country for making inroads into corruption:

    Although it still scores low, war-torn Ukraine (33) is one of few significant improvers on the CPI, having gained eight points since 2013. The country has long struggled with systemic abuse of power, but has taken important steps to improve oversight and accountability.






  • Bluesky is not great, but it’s at least (for now) a better platform than X and the AT protocol is actually very well written. (For instance having a moderation service separated from the service that provides the posts I think is a hands-down better way to handle it than most ActivityPub servers having their admins handle all incoming and outgoing moderation)

    Bluesky federation is just now getting started so it’ll be interesting to see if it goes anywhere/where it goes.



  • Unfortunately as long as the US remains the global financial hegemon through the dollar, it’ll continue to be the most lucrative place to obtain assets globally.

    Double Unfortunately the dollar is probably going to reach 1985 plaza accords levels of strength vs other currencies, but without the global economy working together to help the US like it did before.

    An overly strong dollar will likely destroy the US’s ability to export goods.