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To me, the fundamental character of the systems and their typical behaviors means that I find it likely that something like this, about a capitalist empire, would be real, whereas something about a revolutionary government is statistically less likely to be true and more likely to be a psyop by a capitalist empire to stain their image. We don’t really have any examples of AES nor even anti imperialist countries manufacturing lies directly to Western audiences to defame their own countries…leaks that are “West bad” and especially “USA bad” overwhelmingly tend to be true and back up by lots of known contexts and precedents.

That said, I think that at a certain point intentional lying done overwhelmingly by capitalists/fascists has muddied the waters so much that it’s really hard at times to definitively say whether X Y or Z is true or false. And, quite simply, it is of my opinion that communists should let ourselves be a little less concerned about absolute perfection and more concerned with memeability and impact. I’d rather share something that turned out to be false as long as it radicalized people along the way. That might be a hot take because communism to represents the ultimate truth in every way, we have a monopoly on truth, so it feels ugly to say that, but at the same time, is vie oh lens not also an ugly thing that we have to utilize in a war where our enemies have no moral qualms chaining them down?

I think it’s not so much the content that’s interesting, but the fact that the leak happened in the first place. This could indicate dissent within the intelligence community. There is general consensus that the counter attack will likely result in catastrophic losses for Ukraine, but state department is hell bent on it. This leak could be a way to cancel the attack on the premise that it’s been compromised.