I have a theory: Western “emissions reductions” are a lie.
Recent studies have shown that true methane leakage from natural gas extraction and transportation can have a greater impact on total emissions than the burning of natural gas - with this factor accounted for, natural gas has minimal net reduction in emissions over coal. However, as far as I know, the studies used to calculate emissions reductions in the West have relied on far lower assumptions for methane leakage.
So, when the US spent the last few decades replacing their coal plants with natural gas plants, they actually failed to achieve anything despite the top line “reduction in emissions” from that switch. I believe that in the next decade, we’re going to get reports indicating that the big fossil fuel companies knew this all along and did nothing.
Edit:
CH4 has 30x the warming potential of CO2 over a 100 year period and 85x the warming potential of CO2 over a 20 year period. Burning of natural gas is widely considered to release half the emissions of coal. To equal coal over 100 years, you would need <3.3% leakage… But in the near term, you would need as low as <1.2% leakage. The EPA puts methane leakage at about 1.4% of production. Recent studies from Stanford measure 9% leakage over the Permian Basin in the US and from The Atmospheric Fund indicate a 2.7% leakage rate over Canada. Taking that worst-case number, 9%, that means American natural gas has a 20-year emissions footprint that is 320% that of coal.
Anyone working in gas transmission and distribution, please feel free to add further insight towards leakage there. I don’t have the bandwidth to do proper research into that. From what I remember, maintenance on gas lines is basically done by dumping everything in the lines out into the environment.
I have a theory: Western “emissions reductions” are a lie.
Recent studies have shown that true methane leakage from natural gas extraction and transportation can have a greater impact on total emissions than the burning of natural gas - with this factor accounted for, natural gas has minimal net reduction in emissions over coal. However, as far as I know, the studies used to calculate emissions reductions in the West have relied on far lower assumptions for methane leakage.
So, when the US spent the last few decades replacing their coal plants with natural gas plants, they actually failed to achieve anything despite the top line “reduction in emissions” from that switch. I believe that in the next decade, we’re going to get reports indicating that the big fossil fuel companies knew this all along and did nothing.
Edit:
CH4 has 30x the warming potential of CO2 over a 100 year period and 85x the warming potential of CO2 over a 20 year period. Burning of natural gas is widely considered to release half the emissions of coal. To equal coal over 100 years, you would need <3.3% leakage… But in the near term, you would need as low as <1.2% leakage. The EPA puts methane leakage at about 1.4% of production. Recent studies from Stanford measure 9% leakage over the Permian Basin in the US and from The Atmospheric Fund indicate a 2.7% leakage rate over Canada. Taking that worst-case number, 9%, that means American natural gas has a 20-year emissions footprint that is 320% that of coal.
Anyone working in gas transmission and distribution, please feel free to add further insight towards leakage there. I don’t have the bandwidth to do proper research into that. From what I remember, maintenance on gas lines is basically done by dumping everything in the lines out into the environment.