The possibility of a tipping point cascade is generally without dispute as far as I know. It is likely based on what we do understand, however predicting how likely exactly, the severity of consequences, and the interaction with positive and negative feedback loops from other climate systems is not well understood.
The consensus seems to be that it’s virtually certain with a warming of 4-5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels.
Ignoring an existential risk like that because one lacks understanding doesn’t seem wise.
Is a catastrophic, world-ending feedback loop likely based on what we understand? The IPCC reports paint a grim future, but I don’t believe any has suggested that it’s likely the entire Earth will be rendered completely uninhabitable to human life.
Yes, at least it is likely in the sense that it is very much possible, one example being a “hothouse earth” scenario (see the paper I quoted above), another being more rapid ecosystem collapse speeding up the mass extinction event that was already ongoing before anthropogenic climate change even started.
The IPCC reports might be a bad source for this, considering that two years ago some people involved in its creation felt the need to leak it before it could be politically redacted.
Just to reiterate, I’m not saying anything on the likelihood of this outcome compared to other (still unprecedentedly catastrophic) outcomes, just that it is possible based on our current understanding of climate systems and ecosystems.
The possibility of a tipping point cascade is generally without dispute as far as I know. It is likely based on what we do understand, however predicting how likely exactly, the severity of consequences, and the interaction with positive and negative feedback loops from other climate systems is not well understood.
The consensus seems to be that it’s virtually certain with a warming of 4-5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels.
Ignoring an existential risk like that because one lacks understanding doesn’t seem wise.
Is a catastrophic, world-ending feedback loop likely based on what we understand? The IPCC reports paint a grim future, but I don’t believe any has suggested that it’s likely the entire Earth will be rendered completely uninhabitable to human life.
Yes, at least it is likely in the sense that it is very much possible, one example being a “hothouse earth” scenario (see the paper I quoted above), another being more rapid ecosystem collapse speeding up the mass extinction event that was already ongoing before anthropogenic climate change even started.
The IPCC reports might be a bad source for this, considering that two years ago some people involved in its creation felt the need to leak it before it could be politically redacted.
Just to reiterate, I’m not saying anything on the likelihood of this outcome compared to other (still unprecedentedly catastrophic) outcomes, just that it is possible based on our current understanding of climate systems and ecosystems.