It goes without saying that when choosing, if necessary and as a retaliatory measure, targets to be hit by systems such as Oreshnik on Ukrainian territory, we will in advance suggest that civilians and citizens of friendly countries residing in those areas leave danger zones. We will do so for humanitarian reasons, openly and publicly, without fear of counter-moves coming from the enemy, who will also be receiving this information.
Why without fear? Because there are no means of countering such weapons today. Missiles attack targets at a speed of Mach 10, which is 2.5 to 3 kilometers per second. Air defense systems currently available in the world and missile defense systems being created by the Americans in Europe cannot intercept such missiles. It is impossible.
Every single one of those warnings will be called “russian propaganda” before wherever they strike hit. Though it would be smart if NATO intelligence did fake warnings.
That’s the whole problem here. If Russia does nothing then NATO will say it was a bluff and continue to escalate. If Russia retaliates then they frame it as Russia escalating and NATO having to stand firm in face of nuclear blackmail and whatever. So, regardless of how Russia responds there’s almost guaranteed to be more escalation.
That’s the thing, Russia cannot de-escalate unilaterally. De-escalation requires both sides to want it. We know that neither NATO nor the current Ukrainian leadership want peace. They want everything else, no matter how unrealistic or unreasonable but they don’t want peace. That doesn’t give Russia much room. It’s options are to capitulate or continue matching the escalatory moves.
Every single one of those warnings will be called “russian propaganda” before wherever they strike hit. Though it would be smart if NATO intelligence did fake warnings.
That’s the whole problem here. If Russia does nothing then NATO will say it was a bluff and continue to escalate. If Russia retaliates then they frame it as Russia escalating and NATO having to stand firm in face of nuclear blackmail and whatever. So, regardless of how Russia responds there’s almost guaranteed to be more escalation.
That’s the thing, Russia cannot de-escalate unilaterally. De-escalation requires both sides to want it. We know that neither NATO nor the current Ukrainian leadership want peace. They want everything else, no matter how unrealistic or unreasonable but they don’t want peace. That doesn’t give Russia much room. It’s options are to capitulate or continue matching the escalatory moves.
Exactly, and this means Russia has to walk a tightrope of avoiding WW3 while still achieving its objectives through force.