Quick analysis: the US flushed itself down the toilet.
Likely fact: Republicans now control all 4 towers of the castle (president, senate, house of representatives and surpreme court).
Conclusion: the situation allows Republicans to steamroll legislation into force.
Further conclusion: US voters really don’t understand what they are doing.
Climate: it’s bad, but one president’s rule is short. Trump will withdraw from the Paris treaty and sabotage domestic attempts to curb emissions. Europe and China will continue their attempts because they haven’t changed, and they want energy independence. Climate is a system with great inertia. We are beaten by the mistakes of previous decades, new generations will be beaten by our mistakes. Increasingly hard.
Ukraine: the situation is very bad. The Biden administration won approval for 60 billion of support in spring, but according to Zelensky, only 10% has been delivered so far. Unless the DoD hurries the hell out of itself, Trump will close the tap on aid that Biden secured. Trump will try diplomacy, but Putin’s administration is made of a different sort of people. They are running for life while Trumpists are running for lunch. Putin will politely send him where sun doesn’t shine and continue grinding meat, now with an added flavour of North Korean. Ukraine faces a very difficult choice: fight a retreating war in conditions of decreasing aid, hoping that revolutionary conditions arise in Russia… or make peace with the attacker, giving them territory. Ukraine will need all the assistance it can get from anywhere. Knowing this, and knowing the risk of a Trump re-election, I started developing a drone system 6 months ago. It has gone through many iterations and might be capable of combat in the coming month. I didn’t sign up to live in a world like this, but hey, you take what you’re given. :(
If the war in Ukraine gives Putin territory and peace as a result, Putin and his heirs know that you can get territory and peace with war: any place in Eastern Europe could be next.
In summer, Congress locked away the keys for leaving NATO, but Republicans now control both houses and Trump has cleansed the party of dissenters. Trump can credibly threaten to withdraw from NATO or actually do it.
Taiwan needs to find more alliances, because the US might become unreliable, and China knows this. The rest of the world needs to think if they can do without electronics during a Chinese attempt to conquer Taiwan.
Democracy in the US: will be dismantled in favour of something like Hungary. We will see ministers who are oligarchs like Musk or irresponsible liars like Kennedy. Since the storm is near-perfect, I predict that democracy will give way to oligarchy. Risk of disturbances, repressions and internal conflict will grow.
Until now, only unstable people wanted to assassinate Trump. Given these conditions, I predict that stable but ruthless people who see a danger to their future will join the game. They will reason as follows: “risk has reached certainty and there is still time to prevent outcomes”. If I was working in the Secret Service, I would increase protection on Trump 10 times (unless I hated him).
One big difference between Hungary and the US are guns. It’ll either can lead to a revolution much easier than in Hungary, or a Krystalnacht that is followed by the return of KKK-style lynchings.
For Ukraine, peace is not a real option. They can choose between war and being oppressed by Putin. And now, how they want to go out in history: in a war with glory, or under Putin’s boot who tells them: “no, you’re Russians, speak Russian”. I refuse to call “ethnic cleansing” peace. At best, it’s just the illlusion of such, because tanks are not crossing state borders.
Fascists like Trump choose their henchman based on loyalty, not skills. He will just get a lot of badly trained soldiers as basically meat shields.
Quick analysis: the US flushed itself down the toilet.
Likely fact: Republicans now control all 4 towers of the castle (president, senate, house of representatives and surpreme court).
Conclusion: the situation allows Republicans to steamroll legislation into force.
Further conclusion: US voters really don’t understand what they are doing.
Climate: it’s bad, but one president’s rule is short. Trump will withdraw from the Paris treaty and sabotage domestic attempts to curb emissions. Europe and China will continue their attempts because they haven’t changed, and they want energy independence. Climate is a system with great inertia. We are beaten by the mistakes of previous decades, new generations will be beaten by our mistakes. Increasingly hard.
Ukraine: the situation is very bad. The Biden administration won approval for 60 billion of support in spring, but according to Zelensky, only 10% has been delivered so far. Unless the DoD hurries the hell out of itself, Trump will close the tap on aid that Biden secured. Trump will try diplomacy, but Putin’s administration is made of a different sort of people. They are running for life while Trumpists are running for lunch. Putin will politely send him where sun doesn’t shine and continue grinding meat, now with an added flavour of North Korean. Ukraine faces a very difficult choice: fight a retreating war in conditions of decreasing aid, hoping that revolutionary conditions arise in Russia… or make peace with the attacker, giving them territory. Ukraine will need all the assistance it can get from anywhere. Knowing this, and knowing the risk of a Trump re-election, I started developing a drone system 6 months ago. It has gone through many iterations and might be capable of combat in the coming month. I didn’t sign up to live in a world like this, but hey, you take what you’re given. :(
If the war in Ukraine gives Putin territory and peace as a result, Putin and his heirs know that you can get territory and peace with war: any place in Eastern Europe could be next.
In summer, Congress locked away the keys for leaving NATO, but Republicans now control both houses and Trump has cleansed the party of dissenters. Trump can credibly threaten to withdraw from NATO or actually do it.
Taiwan needs to find more alliances, because the US might become unreliable, and China knows this. The rest of the world needs to think if they can do without electronics during a Chinese attempt to conquer Taiwan.
Democracy in the US: will be dismantled in favour of something like Hungary. We will see ministers who are oligarchs like Musk or irresponsible liars like Kennedy. Since the storm is near-perfect, I predict that democracy will give way to oligarchy. Risk of disturbances, repressions and internal conflict will grow.
Until now, only unstable people wanted to assassinate Trump. Given these conditions, I predict that stable but ruthless people who see a danger to their future will join the game. They will reason as follows: “risk has reached certainty and there is still time to prevent outcomes”. If I was working in the Secret Service, I would increase protection on Trump 10 times (unless I hated him).
One big difference between Hungary and the US are guns. It’ll either can lead to a revolution much easier than in Hungary, or a Krystalnacht that is followed by the return of KKK-style lynchings.
For Ukraine, peace is not a real option. They can choose between war and being oppressed by Putin. And now, how they want to go out in history: in a war with glory, or under Putin’s boot who tells them: “no, you’re Russians, speak Russian”. I refuse to call “ethnic cleansing” peace. At best, it’s just the illlusion of such, because tanks are not crossing state borders.
Fascists like Trump choose their henchman based on loyalty, not skills. He will just get a lot of badly trained soldiers as basically meat shields.