I keep wondering about this. I feel strongly we shouldn’t be like idealist libs and just assume our enemies are irrational and incompetent (like they do with Putin or Xi); that they are guided by desires for conquest and not by material incentives.
I do not think we should assume the Israeli military command is irrational. I mean, their approach in Lebanon (bomb civilians, don’t expose your actual soldiers too much because they will get domed) while incredibly evil, is in a sense rational. BUT… I have a hard time squaring a lot of their actions within the bounds of rationality.
If I had to guess, I would say that their strategy of threats and being hyper-aggressive has never really hurt them in the past, so why stop now they figure. The US will never stop sending Israel bombs, at least not until the US literally just runs out. While that is a reality on the horizon it’s still a ways away. I think their strategy is to just bomb anyone who they feel like and don’t actually use soldiers or tanks much. Bomb someone enough who can’t hit you back and eventually they give up, is I guess the strategy.
A lot of Zionists, both the Amerikkkan kkkristian and Israeli types, seem to honestly believe in prophecies, which can really interfere with rational decision making.
Not to be idealist but how much can we imagine that they think they are protected by the hand of God? They know they are on the wrong side of history. There is some level of generational trauma. They watched Germany do the holocaust and thrn run the EU. So what if they are just putting it all on the line and betting they will come out on top because the political order favors the most ruthless and they can deal with peobelms later? Cause like, I kinda think that is how the US runs. They are our mercenary army. It would make sense they plan for victory or death
States are not rational actors. They are composed of a massive sum of parts, whatever seeming intelligence (in the biological sense of a creature reacting to its environment) that emerges is not necessarily the result of “rationality” (which is itself a fraught concept).
I don’t think it is wise to assume that the Israeli high command is incompetent. Certainly, if any of us were placed in their situation, we wouldn’t know how to do their jobs at all. Their actions may also be rational from their personal perspective. Deescalation of the war may even cost them their jobs. I don’t know.
But the actions of the Israeli high command are certainly not “rational” from the perspective of the state. They are effectively playing chicken with their whole country. Their military is constantly eating losses and getting spread thin from all of these fronts. America refuses to directly intervene. And the Israeli economy is in taters.
I wonder if Israel is engaging in a bit of Madman theory. Trying to come across as unhinged that no one wants to really confront them for fear they’ll do something massively insane. Of course engaging with the Madman theory always necessitates actually doing evil and insane things… sooo…
They don’t seem to realize there’s an expiration date on how well that works. You spend too long playing the madman and eventually everyone else gets sick of your shit and accelerates their efforts to find ways of countering you.
I keep wondering about this. I feel strongly we shouldn’t be like idealist libs and just assume our enemies are irrational and incompetent (like they do with Putin or Xi); that they are guided by desires for conquest and not by material incentives.
I do not think we should assume the Israeli military command is irrational. I mean, their approach in Lebanon (bomb civilians, don’t expose your actual soldiers too much because they will get domed) while incredibly evil, is in a sense rational. BUT… I have a hard time squaring a lot of their actions within the bounds of rationality.
If I had to guess, I would say that their strategy of threats and being hyper-aggressive has never really hurt them in the past, so why stop now they figure. The US will never stop sending Israel bombs, at least not until the US literally just runs out. While that is a reality on the horizon it’s still a ways away. I think their strategy is to just bomb anyone who they feel like and don’t actually use soldiers or tanks much. Bomb someone enough who can’t hit you back and eventually they give up, is I guess the strategy.
A lot of Zionists, both the Amerikkkan kkkristian and Israeli types, seem to honestly believe in prophecies, which can really interfere with rational decision making.
Not to be idealist but how much can we imagine that they think they are protected by the hand of God? They know they are on the wrong side of history. There is some level of generational trauma. They watched Germany do the holocaust and thrn run the EU. So what if they are just putting it all on the line and betting they will come out on top because the political order favors the most ruthless and they can deal with peobelms later? Cause like, I kinda think that is how the US runs. They are our mercenary army. It would make sense they plan for victory or death
States are not rational actors. They are composed of a massive sum of parts, whatever seeming intelligence (in the biological sense of a creature reacting to its environment) that emerges is not necessarily the result of “rationality” (which is itself a fraught concept).
I don’t think it is wise to assume that the Israeli high command is incompetent. Certainly, if any of us were placed in their situation, we wouldn’t know how to do their jobs at all. Their actions may also be rational from their personal perspective. Deescalation of the war may even cost them their jobs. I don’t know.
But the actions of the Israeli high command are certainly not “rational” from the perspective of the state. They are effectively playing chicken with their whole country. Their military is constantly eating losses and getting spread thin from all of these fronts. America refuses to directly intervene. And the Israeli economy is in taters.
I wonder if Israel is engaging in a bit of Madman theory. Trying to come across as unhinged that no one wants to really confront them for fear they’ll do something massively insane. Of course engaging with the Madman theory always necessitates actually doing evil and insane things… sooo…
They don’t seem to realize there’s an expiration date on how well that works. You spend too long playing the madman and eventually everyone else gets sick of your shit and accelerates their efforts to find ways of countering you.
Surely it’s gonna work THIS time!