On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft.
At this point I really think that NATO needs to be disbanded and new security architecture created for Europe based on current realities. NATO is a historical artifact of the world order that was formed after WW2, and that world order no longer exists. Ultimately, the only way that peace can be achieved is by creating a framework that addresses everyone’s security concerns.
I really don’t see secession as a big deal either. I think the problem for smaller nations is that they’re always going to end up under pressure from larger nations. Countries like Ukraine are stuck in the middle of geopolitical games between forces that are much bigger than them.
Ukraine dissolving entirely is also a very real possibility. That could happen very rapidly once Ukrainian military is defeated. There are a lot tensions within the country that have been escalating over the past decade. Ukraine splitting up into separate states may actually be the best result going forward.
Possibly. But such a scenario could only work once things are calmed down… otherwise it just looks like (to one side) that you’re wanting that because it’s momentarily convenient.
And when will things ever calm down? Even should the current crisis resolve itself, there will be another somewhere else, and soon. Russia’s not the only problematic entity… Turkey likes to stir shit just as much. The Balkans are, well, the Balkans… aren’t they about due to blow up on their own again, even without outside help?
Considering the European tradition of ignoring everything until the world nearly ends and only afterward doing something about it, there’s just never going to be an opportunity.
For that matter, how do you even design it so that it is both effective and doesn’t look like (to the Russians) to be NATO 2.0 and made just to fuck with them?
I highly recommend this book from Ray Dalio to get an idea of what we can expect going forward. I find it does a really good job putting current events into historic context and makes a strong case that what we’re currently seeing is par for the course for where we happen to be in the historical cycle.
I agree with you that there’s pretty much no chance of NATO being abolished in the foreseeable future. If Russia chose to play a smart diplomatic game, I think they could’ve managed to wean Europe from NATO by offering trade and cooperation. Unfortunately, they chose to start a war and confirm all the fears Europe had regarding them.
And I don’t really see how an architecture could be designed that doesn’t look like a threat to either Europe or Russia at this point. Both sides have plenty of reasons to mistrust each other, and I think we’ll continue to see a very tense situation in the foreseeable future.
As someone firmly on the other side of this, with strong and persistent anti-Russia biases, I can still say that if they had done so this would’ve worked.
It’s what I want, it’s what everyone wants. Hell, they might even have done the economic warfare thing themselves, gotten revenge on a few enemies if that’s what they wanted, and everyone would still cheer them on for it.
There’s some sort of underdog “we can’t ever win” attitude going on with them that compels this sort of behavior. Which is strange coming from the first nation to ever make it into space. The only one who was ever a plausible rival to the US.
I don’t want the Russian people miserable. I don’t want them to suffer in poverty. I don’t have any burning need to see them punished (and I’d struggle to think of anything they should be punished for). Hell, on the other hand, there’s Germany… “cough cough”.
Honestly, I wish someone in the US state department would pull their head out of their ass and at least try to convince Russia that they should join NATO, and at least make them feel like they are wanted within it. I don’t want them to be our enemy, and I don’t think we can afford for them to be it. We’ve at least been allies, if a long time ago. We should be again.
Having grown up in USSR, I can give you some insight into what people in Russia think. People deeply resent the west because they feel that the west chose to treat the Soviet Union as the enemy. It was promptly invaded in 1918 right after the revolution ended. Then it was plunged into WW2 a couple of decades later, and after that there was the Cold War. USSR has been under threat of war from the western world throughout its whole existence.
Then in the 90s when USSR collapsed everyone thought that we’d join the west and live as one big happy family since we chose to adopt the western model and there was nothing left to fight about. Instead of that Russia treated to economic shock and plundering by western powers. Life became absolutely horrific for the vast majority of people, and I personally remember things like food shortages during that time.
This was the point where people realized that the west never had any good intentions towards Russia. This is precisely what gave rise to Putin who managed to take control of the economy and make Russia a sovereign state again.
Nowadays there’s deep mistrust on both sides, and I really don’t know how that can be bridged after this war. It seems to me that relations between the west and Russia are rolling back to USSR days where both sides are treating each other as an enemy and an existential threat. I suspect that things will get a lot worse before they get better.