I expect that things are going to be pretty grim for Europe all around. I completely agree that it’s going to be nearly impossible for Europeans to come together around shared interests in a rapidly deteriorating economic environment. And given that individual countries are going to be weak on their own that will open the door for political manipulation by both US and Russia.

I don’t really see how US can get Europeans to fight China realistically. Europe is going to have their hands full trying not to collapse for the foreseeable future. It’s more realistic to expect that US will try to rally Australia, Japan, and India. Although, I can’t really see India going along with that in practice. India is happy to play China and US off each other, but there’s very little chance it would actually fight for US.