According to internal assessments within the UK government, the UK should prepare for the scenario of an unexpected collapse of the Russian Federation so that such events do not take London by surprise.
First things first, the US is going to deny involvment either way. So this means nothing TBH.
Lukashenko being involved is quite weird to me and makes me wonder if there is something going on there. Does Prigozhin really think that his life is safe now? Or was it simply delayed (e.g. because of assistance by Lukashenko in a future coup?). It doesn’t really make sense either way.
If you look at Lukashenko policy, he tried to remain as independent from Russia as possible for decades, he was only thrown in by the west trying to coup him recently, and he don’t have a history of meddling in the internal affairs of Russia. But now he did it quickly and very decisevely. Conclusion is that this isn’t his proposition at all, but it came from Kremlin - and everyone there including Prigozhin knows that.
First things first, the US is going to deny involvment either way. So this means nothing TBH.
Lukashenko being involved is quite weird to me and makes me wonder if there is something going on there. Does Prigozhin really think that his life is safe now? Or was it simply delayed (e.g. because of assistance by Lukashenko in a future coup?). It doesn’t really make sense either way.
If you look at Lukashenko policy, he tried to remain as independent from Russia as possible for decades, he was only thrown in by the west trying to coup him recently, and he don’t have a history of meddling in the internal affairs of Russia. But now he did it quickly and very decisevely. Conclusion is that this isn’t his proposition at all, but it came from Kremlin - and everyone there including Prigozhin knows that.