- cross-posted to:
- usnews@beehaw.org
- cross-posted to:
- usnews@beehaw.org
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Fuck, that’s so low.
Propaganda is a powerful tool.
opt in polling from web based “interview”. So, probably. nobody even remotely tech savy (aka has an ad blocker) ever participated. but anyhow… here’s what pew research has to say about the effects of interview mode:
Where differences occurred, they were especially large on three broad types of questions: Items that asked the respondent to assess the quality of their family and social life produced differences of 18 and 14 percentage points, respectively, with those interviewed on the phone reporting higher levels of satisfaction than those who completed the survey on the Web.
Questions about societal discrimination against several different groups also produced large differences, with telephone respondents more apt than Web respondents to say that gays and lesbians, Hispanics and blacks face a lot of discrimination. However, there was no significant mode difference in responses to the question of whether women face a lot of discrimination.
Web respondents were far more likely than those interviewed on the phone to give various political figures a “very unfavorable” rating, a tendency that was concentrated among members of the opposite party of each figure rated.
Statistically significant mode effects also were observed on several other questions. Telephone respondents were more likely than those interviewed on the Web to say they often talked with their neighbors, to rate their communities as an “excellent” place to live and to rate their own health as “excellent.” Web respondents were more likely than phone respondents to report being unable to afford food or needed medical care at some point in the past twelve months.
ultimately, the legitimacy of the poll would depend on where they solicited their subjects in the poll. You’re likely to get a far different answer with advertisements on Truth Social than you would with advertisements on, lets say, a palistinian-american subreddit. but that wasn’t addressed in the report, so. we’ll never really know.
Opt-in polling is so bad. It means you only get answers from people with strong opinions. They are polls where the results are shaped like a U instead of a bell curve so it rarely represents the actual 95 percentile.
I don’t think it’s opt-in in that way though. They have a pre-existing list of millions of pre-screened people and they’re selecting a representative sample from that list. Fivethirtyeight ranks them fairly highly among other polls – certainly high enough for this opinion poll to be considered accurate.
Fivethirtyeight only grades them on their ability to predict american election results. I don’t think that’s the same as advocating for their efficacy in producing leading public opinion polls.
You’re right, kinda. Issue polling is generally better than horse race polling and YouGov is no exception.
It’s a serious issue when there’s a clear political bias in the founders. They put more effort into steering the narrative than objectively reporting it.
Sure, and were there a clear bias your comment would have value.
If you haven’t seen any clear bias then you probably have a close enough outlook to them to not notice. And that’s fine, I don’t require everyone to have the same opinion as me for their comments to have value.
My impression of bias is probably born out of the leading polls that rightwing media and thinktanks in the UK commission them to do. You can fairly argue that these polls are externally commissioned so their tenor is a product of their issuer not yougov. But the overall impression I got was that they could be readily depended on to produce misleading propaganda against labour when it wasn’t being run by corporate technocrats.
It’s still selecting from a list of people who have something to say, though.
As far as how accurately they represent broad swaths of america… well, that’s a different matter. I would expect your average american to be far more luke warm to any given subject than respondents to a poll.
That’s probably just a problem with polls though – people who won’t answer aren’t included. But they’re saying that 26-32% of Americans are “unsure,” and that sounds pretty lukewarm. Their methodology does sound odd to me too but if it was flawed it would show in the election data, right? Elections are a brutal testing ground. Hundreds of surveys have been predictive and high quality on average.
Agreed on all of that.
I would have guessed 1/3 are “wtf! stop it”, a 1/3 are “bomb them harder!” And then there’s everyone else just doing their thing, going to work. Going to school.
Pretty easy now to see how Nazi Germany got away with it.
They didn’t even have social media back then to help spread misinformation. People were so quick to believe anything they heard someone say loudly.
I know, right. These past 7 years have really made that clear.
I wonder how many people in that poll could locate Gaza on a map with no names.
I couldn’t, but I also couldn’t find Israel… or Greece… or Idaho… I’m just really bad at geography in general.
If Jimmy Kimmel is any representation of reality, they would probably point to Australia.
My parents are in the other two thirds
By vote or volume?
The other ⅔ apparently have their head in the sand .
“It’s just a sparkling massacre”
“It has to be in the correct region of Germany.”
Is this a reference?
Yes, about how champagne must come from the Champagne region of France, otherwise it’s just sparkling wine. I don’t know where the exact quote comes from though
It also references Germany, since the word “genocide” was invented to describe the Nazi crimes against European Jews (the Holocaust).
Explaining things for the slow children takes away from the humour.
There are worse atrocities in life
champagne must come from the Champagne region of France
for something that’s been so extensively memed I would have thought Knowyourmeme would have an entry for this. I’m not finding one, though. Even a “research paper” about the subject doesn’t pin down the earliest time it was used in this way.
It’s just a factoid. The quote itself in this form seems to be from Wayne’s World.
Yes, to the anti-semite police who will tell you with a straight face that you’re making the Holocaust seem better than it was by calling anything else a genocide.
Probably because of all the genocide they’re doing.
Imagine you, your friends and your family get killed and washed away from your land, and 2/3 of US people don’t believe it’s genocide.
Actually 1/3 said it is genocide, 1/3 said it isn’t, and 1/3 said they didn’t know. Also, only1/3 of Americans saying this is a genocide isn’t great, but it does represent a huge shift in opinion in a short time. Both our political parties support Israel, our news media doesn’t cover Palestinians very sympathetically, and our education system tells a very favorable version of Israel’s founding (most Americans don’t even learn about the Nakba). I don’t think criticism of Israel has ever been this mainstream (at least in my lifetime).
Actually 1/3 said it is genocide, 1/3 said it isn’t, and 1/3 said they didn’t know
That means
- 1/3 believe it’s genocide
- 1/3 believe it’s not
- 2/3 do not believe it’s genocide
I see what you’re trying to say, but that’s not really true. You could say, “2/3 of people would not say they thought it was a genocide,” but that’s not the same as saying, “2/3 do not believe it’s genocide.”
It’s a small but important distinction. It’s the equivalent of saying, “1/3 of people are religious, 1/3 of people are atheist, and 1/3 of people are agnostic,” and then trying to say that means, “2/3 of people don’t believe in God,” instead of, “2/3 of people aren’t religious.”
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OK, sure, but I was using the terms as they’re used by the average person to describe their religious beliefs, and these distinctions don’t really have any bearing on the point I was making.
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Average Us public have no clue what is going on in their own country, it is actually amazing there 1/3 know at least there is a genocide taking place.
Murdering people at a music festival and taking hostages might have an effect on public perception.
Two wrongs don’t make a right. A county based on abrahamic religion should know that. It just proves that they don’t actually believe in their own religion and only hide behind it whenever it’s convenient for them, like saying anybody who disagrees with them supports Hamas.
Two wrongs don’t make a right
Absolutely agree.
A county based on abrahamic religion should know that
Dude, have you seen all the shit countries based on abrahamic religions have done through out the history?
ike saying anybody who disagrees with them supports Hamas.
And the other side says that anyone disagreeing with them is a genocidal nazi. I would say the whole discussion at this point is rather heated and fucked up.
I mean, Israel is committing genocide, that’s not up for debate here.
And people who disagree with you?
They’re either ingnorant or shills.
Do you think this about all people who disagree with you - or just on this particular topic?
Which Abrahamic religion are you referring to?
If anyone injures his neighbor, as he has done it shall be done to him, fracture for fracture, eye for eye, tooth for tooth; whatever injury he has given a person shall be given to him. Whoever kills an animal shall make it good, and whoever kills a person shall be put to death. (Leviticus 24:19-21)
What happens if you take both eyes? And the eyes of their family and their neighbors and the people didn’t the street? Is that allowed or?
What happens if every single firstborn Egyptian son is killed overnight? Is that evil?
Religions don’t always give the answers you might expect.
It’s all made up and the points don’t matter!
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So at least 1/3 are paying attention
So at least 1/3 have brain damage.
There’s no justification for Hamas’ terrorism, nor is their justification for Isreal’s genocide.
They don’t care how loudly you condemn Hamas. Scream it till you’re blue in the face and they’ll just call you a Hamas sympathizer anyway.
Among the standard litany of accusations, gaslighting, condescension, and abuse that people who support genocide use instead of defending their position. Because they know their pro-genocide position is indefensible.
1/3 think there isn’t a genocide in Gaza so yes.
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67% said a ceasefire should only happen if the hostages are released and Hamas is removed from power
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83% said October 7 was a terror attack, including 74% of those aged 18-24
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80% said they support Israel over Hamas, including 57% of those aged 18-24
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69% said Israel was trying to avoid civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip and 66% said Israel was just trying to defend itself
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74% said Hamas’s attack was genocidal
this is depressing.
I’m not going to comment on whether or not Hamas’ attack was genocidal, because even if they meant it to be, I just don’t they have the capability. but like… Israel is bombing fucking hospitals and refugee camps inside the strip. That’s not how you go about “avoiding civilian casualties”.
the only side worth supporting here are the civilians caught in the middle.
Right. I’m with the civilians on both sides.
Excuse my ignorance but has Israel actually bombed a hospital?
Thanks. I assumed hospitals would get damaged in the fighting but I did not know some of them were literally flattened
For real? They bomb a different one like every other fucking day.
Literally all of them. There’s only the Nasser hospital in Khan Younis left but it’s barely functioning as it’s completely overwhelmed, and Khan Younis has been besieged for days. There were 36 in total
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Israel also uses human shields and they have been at the core of its expansion policy for decades. They call them “settlers.”
This double standard pisses me off more than just about anything else about the conflict. Israel is the undisputed champion of using civilians as cover for its military and expansionist goals.
And before anyone tries to claim this bullshit that they are acting without the authority of the state, first tell me who Netanyahu put in charge of settlement policy.
Israel tells you this and you just take their word for it.
Al Shifa was supposed to be a Hamas command center. Israel promised us it was a command center, they gave us audio recordings as proof, they had a whole mockup of the suspected underground facilities.
There wasn’t shit, just a sub basement Israel dug.
Stop believing Israel.
you’re not wrong.
but we’re still waiting for proof that Hamas has used a hospital as a base of operations.
another thing everyone knows: The IDF lies.
The IDF also targets journalists and journalists’ families.
And also take hostages.
Oh. I’m sorry. They detain protestors with no due process and round up more suspects when they make a swap…
If you don’t think Palestinians should be used as human shields, I’ve got some bad news for you about the IDF.
Human shields should not be used. Human shields should not be bombed. I know this sounds like enlightened centrism, but it’s pretty clear, only the civilians were innocent. I cannot, simply cannot, support bombing a human shield. There is no point in defending it.
“Hamas uses human shields and has been for a long time. We know this. Everyone knows this.” only points to a clear bad guy if the human shield isn’t bombed. Never have I uttered one breath of support for Hamas. Using a human shield is deplorable.
Many different nations expressed support for the US in war efforts after 9/11. That support slowly dwindled as more and more atrocities were reported. Israel is speedrunning support loss.
and they tunnel through the babies they eat, sure.
Depressing. Mainstream media is such a cancer.
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I think that shows that this is not the issue that is going to really hurt Biden. What will hurt him is if the economy for the average person hasn’t improved by election day. And I doubt it will. So I sure as fuck hope he doesn’t lose to Trump.
But the news keeps telling me life is improving for the average American. The News.
this is not the issue that is going to really hurt Biden
That’s not my reading of the poll:
35% say it is, 36% say it isn’t, with 29% undecided.
Almost half of those surveyed aged 18-29, 49%, say Israel is committing genocide, with 24% disagreeing and 27% uncertain.
The figures are broadly similar for registered Democrats, who believe 49%-21% in the genocide characterization, while 30% are undecided.Half of all young people and half of all Democrats believe it’s a genocide, with more undecided than disbelieving. Those numbers are not likely to get better as the IDF kills more Palestinians.
Biden’s not likely to pick up republican votes based on this issue, but he is quite likely to drive down youth and democrat turn out by being out of touch with his base.
No, unfortunately, this issue is now actually going to hurt Biden. Opinions are shifting much more rapidly than expected, but unless it’s overwhelming, he’s in a no-win scenario. The best hope at this point is that opinion continues to change rapidly, and Biden follows suit. But even that’s only damage control. Too many are against Israel’s genocide to ignore, and too many are pro-Israel’s genocide to ignore. Either way he’s going to lose votes.
He could have threaded the needle by still supporting Israel , but stopping arms shipments and funds. But here we are. I still think he can steer the ship, but, yeah, he’s gonna lose votes. On the bright side, Trump’s numbers among Republicans are depressed too.
I think that shows that this is not the issue that is going to really hurt Biden.
How so?
Because it’s not the issue people are caring the most about by any means.
No? Half of Democrats believe it’s a genocide, while only 21% believe it’s not. The rest are undecided. This is a big deal, because even if a tenth of the people who believe it’s a genocide decide to stay home that’s enough to lose Biden the election.
If that headline said one third of Americans don’t believe Israel is commiting genocide which is also an accurate from the results it would set a very different tone.
It’s basically a three way split. 1/3rd yes, 1/3rd no, 1/3rd undecided.
“less than half”
“more than epsilon”
saw this one making the rounds the other day, I think it’s quite fitting https://twitter.com/SaeedDiCaprio/status/1750152798623195473
do not use other genocides to describe this one
I saw that Freudian slip, good job 👍
The realisation in that “Oh!” is just 👩🍳👌❤️
You gotta pump those numbers up. Those are rookie numbers.
“believe”… Even ‘positive’ articles sneaks in some doubt in the headline. At least dobt your lyin’ eyes, you pleb.
Then opinions are shifting. Good.
Another garbage YouGov propaganda piece. All my homies see right through YouGov’s bullshit.
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In other news: 2/3rds of Americans are removed.
