As Ukrainian troops probe Russian defenses, Kyiv’s forces face an enemy that has made mistakes and suffered setbacks in the 15-month-old war. But Moscow also has learned from those blunders and improved its weapons and skills. Russia has built heavily fortified defenses along the more than 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line, honed its electronic weapons to reduce Ukraine’s edge in combat drones and used its massive Cold-War-era arsenal of heavy bombs to turn them into precision-guided gliding munitions capable of striking targets without putting its warplanes at risk. That could threaten to turn the fight into a long battle of attrition.
To be honest, expectation management started even before spring with UA saying they didn’t have enough weapons. As RU consolidated its defensive lines and military doctrine (deploying large amounts of EW, for example) new releases came out from RUSI and the like pointing out the increasing difficulties.
I’m not too surprised that the counteroffensive was first delayed, and then managed down. I may be wrong–maybe UA has something ready to make big gains–but I don’t expect large changes until autumn makes operations much harder. Hopefully real, good faith negotiations may be politically feasible by then.
To be honest, expectation management started even before spring with UA saying they didn’t have enough weapons. As RU consolidated its defensive lines and military doctrine (deploying large amounts of EW, for example) new releases came out from RUSI and the like pointing out the increasing difficulties.
I’m not too surprised that the counteroffensive was first delayed, and then managed down. I may be wrong–maybe UA has something ready to make big gains–but I don’t expect large changes until autumn makes operations much harder. Hopefully real, good faith negotiations may be politically feasible by then.