Putin’s restraint in the face of massive western military aid to Ukraine has been remarkable but his forbearance may not be boundless
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆

I also get the impression that the status quo is currently working in Russian favour. Russia has the dominance on the battlefield, and the war is costing the west far more than it is costing Russia. The west is currently propping up the entire Ukrainian economy, and supplying all the weapons, ammo, and any other supplies needed to keep Ukrainian army functioning. This is costing over a billion a month every month. These are just the direct costs of keeping the war going. There are also secondary economic effects resulting from the trade war and the need to allocate increasing amounts of existing resources towards the military.

On top of that, Russia does weekly strikes across Ukraine that result in millions of dollars of damage. It’s much easier for Russia to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure and supplies than for the west to rebuild them creating further asymmetry in the cost of waging this war.

On the other hand, Russian economy is strengthening while European economies are starting to run into problems. As a Belgian MEP recently quipped the effect of sanctions on Russia ‘less than 0’.

Given all that, I imagine that Russia is perfectly happy with the west slowly depleting its arsenal in Ukraine because the west lacks the industrial base to replace what is lost. The war of attrition favours Russia in the long term because Russia has a stronger military industrial base.

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