Ph.D. of energy geopolitics and markets, university professor… all citing their sources. What kind of source do you accept as valid if these are not enough? Please, provide them.
The effects are here already. It’s absurd to think China and India can replace Europe on the amount of exports. Is there any proof for your claims? I have seen only words.
LMAO pretty telling how all the numbers are from May, weird how it fails to mention that inflation has been dropping rapidly in Russia, and prices for necessities have been falling
This is precisely my point regarding sanctions. They create an initial shock and then the economy adjusts. There is no instance I’m aware of where western sanctions led to regime change that I’m aware of. Venezuela, DPRK, and Iran are all small countries managing to cope with western sanctions. It’s absolute idiocy to think Russia would not.
Meanwhile, what really matters is the relative economic shock to Russia and the west. Right now the economy in the west is doing far war than in Russia. The obvious reason being that Russia is secure for food, energy, and manufacturing while the west is not.
What part of this are you struggling with? Those numbers are small compared to the exports what went to Europe. And it doesn’t say anything about the possible cost of the project, or how the future sanctions might affect it. The previous links had good calculations for these, and I have repeated them a few times.
Proposed pipelines are meant to move similar numbers that were going to Europe. The cost of the project is obviously worth it for both Russia and China given that they’re currently doing this project. Have no idea what western sanctions have to do with any of that. If you think that Russia and China aren’t capable of building pipelines on their own you’re delusional.
Yes, this is what you are doing. Of course I rely on experts because I’m not an expert. The same applies to you. I provided sources for my claims, you did not. It’s that simple.
Literally the opposite of what I’m doing. I’ve explained to you the actual mechanics behind the situation.
If you think this is correct, how do you think the economy adjusts to the empiness that was left when all western companies disappeared, brain drain is happening etc.?
Zero evidence to support your assertions about any brain drain happening. Meanwhile, Russia will obviously be in a better place with domestic industry that circulates back into its own economy.
The whole situation takes some time before the actual effects are shown.
Weirdly it’s not taking time for the effects to show in Europe. Wonder what things will look like by spring.
As I said before, it makes things harder to analyze because many official economic statistics are no longer published. You’ll have to rely on what Russia gives (which might be false data) or estimations.
No evidence to support the assertion that Russia gives false data and estimations.
As you said yourself, the economy adjusts.
Economy adjusts when you have things like food and energy secured. Europe does not, and the adjustment will be to starvation and deindustrialization.
The current situation doesn’t count of couse because we are in the middle of it. The manufacturing has already taken a big hit. Why else is Russia trying to get goods from other countries if they are so self-sufficient?
Please name what essential goods Russia is trying to get from other countries. Also, please name what goods Russia actually has trouble sourcing.
As you can see from the sources, even after the new pipeline is finished, the numbers are nowhere near the ones they exported to Europe. I haven’t seen any other numbers that would speak against this.
As you can see, Russia is making record profits at current levels of exports, and once the pipeline is finished it will be doing more exports. The demand for gas isn’t going away any time soon, and after 6 months, it’s crystal clear that there is no way to replace Russian gas on the global market. I realize the concept of supply and demand is daunting for some people.
And when you put the words that way it almost sounds someone has gained a lot of benefits from the explosions of Nord Stream pipes ;) It’s one way to circle around the sanctions.
I see that you’re once again back to having trouble understanding that Russia can turn off the tap at the source. Russia is not required to sell gas to Europe, they can choose whom they do business with. Russia having cut gas in Nord Stream 1 pipelines clearly demonstrated this concept already. Anybody who thinks that Russia needs to blow up it’s own pipelines assumes that people whom they’re trying to convince are imbeciles.
AFAIK Russia is not self-sufficient.
I asked you to be specific here, but you just keep repeating nonsense that you made up.
Are are comparing different things here.
No, we’re literally comparing the same thing. The west cut trade with Russia and now western economies are tanking due to lack of commodities from Russia, while Russian economy is doing just fine without western trinkets.
Yeah, because Russia doesn’t give any data. We’ll have to rely on other data and estimations.
Russia publishes plenty of data, anybody who knows how to use google can look it up. I’m guessing you’re not in the set of people who understand how google works.
Electronic components for manufacturing (you want to depend on China with this too?), spare parts, chemicals etc…
Yes, Russia is going to depend on China for a lot of these things the same way the rest of the world is. You evidently don’t seem to understand where most of global manufacturing happens.
And the most essential: money.
Oh you mean like the rouble that’s the only currency that continues to strengthen agains the dollar? 😂
All the previous exports must be made to China. Sounds like Russia is going to be dependent on them for a long time. In short, China holds the cards from now on.
No, all previous exports will be made to friendly countries which constitute the majority of world’s population. Go read up on BRICS which Russia is a central member of.
China is a big winner from all this to be sure, and I’m personally very happy about that. I think China is a far better run country than Russia, and I’d much rather see China lead the world than western parasites. Russia is paving the way for that.
Still, the number of exports doesn’t met the amounts they were exporting to Europe even if the new pipeline is finished. In short: China is not going to replace Europe in the energy front, and that’s crystal clear. I’m not sure how many times this needs to be repeated.
In short, demand for Russian energy exports isn’t going anywhere. You’re also making a baseless claim that Russia will not be making more pipelines to the east in the future. Pakistan already asked Russia for a pipeline just last month for example. With manufacturing moving out of Europe, the demand for energy in Asia will grow proportionally, and that energy has the same source.
Your whole premise is nonsense, yet you keep doubling down on it. It’s absolutely amazing that you can’t understand supply and demand mechanics.
No we are not. You are comparing countries that have energy imports cut off (the effects are pretty fast) to a country that has cut off imports on other areas (effects are more slow). The situation could be only compared if both Europe and Russia would be dependent on same things.
Ah, so you’re finally admitting that Europe is more dependent on Russia than the other way around. And following this basic logic it becomes obvious that the longer the trade war goes the worse off Europe will be economically relative to Russia.
Ok, let’s see what it says… Retail sales fell 8,8% in August, wages fell over 3%, gas cutoff hits about 6,6 billion dollars, 55% of oil exports are lost, metal producers are losing 5,7 billion per year, EU restrictions have tripled the cost of road shipments, 95% of passenger planes are foreign-made planes now without spare parts, with pharmaceuticals about 80% of domestic production relies on imported raw materials. So far I haven’t seen Russia itself releasing this kind of stats. Have you?
Russia releases stats about the economy regularly, which include price increases, wages, and so on.
Meanwhile, you just make stuff up as usual. For example, sanctions on plane spare parts were lifted back in August. So, yeah I don’t see made up stats from Russia.
And what are you going to do with all the roubles when you can’t change them to other currency?
Huh, Russia exchanges roubles for all kinds currencies with yuan and rupees being two key ones. There’s a whole new financial system forming outside of SWIFT right now. The amount of ignorance on display here is just stunning.
The demand may not be going anywhere but the amount what Russia can export is now limited.
That’s what makes the price go up. Let me try using small words you might be able to understand. Less supply means higher price. If Russia can’t deliver as much gas it was previously, then the price for the available gas surges because there isn’t enough to meet demand. This is why Russia is making more profit while selling less gas right now. Since demand is high, that means Russia will keep building more pipelines east and increase volumes of sales to meet demand.
I haven’t said anything like that either. Both are dependent on each other, of course. Please stop putting words to my mouth.
You literally just admitted that the economy in Europe is collapsing because essential commodities from Russia have been cut off. Meanwhile, nothing essential in Russia is missing. This is why the effect on Europe is so much more profound.
Thanks! Seems I wasn’t aware of that site.
Seems like aren’t aware of great many things.
Of course I meant the dollar and euro here.
It’s pretty hilarious that you think these are the only currencies worth considering, given that all the industry and manufacturing is in Asia. You seems to be under the delusion that 15% of world’s population in the west is still the most important part of the planet. It’s not.
What part of Russia is building new pipelines to China are you struggling with?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority
LMAO pretty telling how all the numbers are from May, weird how it fails to mention that inflation has been dropping rapidly in Russia, and prices for necessities have been falling
This is precisely my point regarding sanctions. They create an initial shock and then the economy adjusts. There is no instance I’m aware of where western sanctions led to regime change that I’m aware of. Venezuela, DPRK, and Iran are all small countries managing to cope with western sanctions. It’s absolute idiocy to think Russia would not.
Meanwhile, what really matters is the relative economic shock to Russia and the west. Right now the economy in the west is doing far war than in Russia. The obvious reason being that Russia is secure for food, energy, and manufacturing while the west is not.
deleted by creator
Proposed pipelines are meant to move similar numbers that were going to Europe. The cost of the project is obviously worth it for both Russia and China given that they’re currently doing this project. Have no idea what western sanctions have to do with any of that. If you think that Russia and China aren’t capable of building pipelines on their own you’re delusional.
Literally the opposite of what I’m doing. I’ve explained to you the actual mechanics behind the situation.
Zero evidence to support your assertions about any brain drain happening. Meanwhile, Russia will obviously be in a better place with domestic industry that circulates back into its own economy.
Weirdly it’s not taking time for the effects to show in Europe. Wonder what things will look like by spring.
No evidence to support the assertion that Russia gives false data and estimations.
Economy adjusts when you have things like food and energy secured. Europe does not, and the adjustment will be to starvation and deindustrialization.
Please name what essential goods Russia is trying to get from other countries. Also, please name what goods Russia actually has trouble sourcing.
The fact that you use this as a source explains a lot about your views on the subject.
deleted by creator
As you can see, Russia is making record profits at current levels of exports, and once the pipeline is finished it will be doing more exports. The demand for gas isn’t going away any time soon, and after 6 months, it’s crystal clear that there is no way to replace Russian gas on the global market. I realize the concept of supply and demand is daunting for some people.
I see that you’re once again back to having trouble understanding that Russia can turn off the tap at the source. Russia is not required to sell gas to Europe, they can choose whom they do business with. Russia having cut gas in Nord Stream 1 pipelines clearly demonstrated this concept already. Anybody who thinks that Russia needs to blow up it’s own pipelines assumes that people whom they’re trying to convince are imbeciles.
I asked you to be specific here, but you just keep repeating nonsense that you made up.
No, we’re literally comparing the same thing. The west cut trade with Russia and now western economies are tanking due to lack of commodities from Russia, while Russian economy is doing just fine without western trinkets.
Russia publishes plenty of data, anybody who knows how to use google can look it up. I’m guessing you’re not in the set of people who understand how google works.
Yes, Russia is going to depend on China for a lot of these things the same way the rest of the world is. You evidently don’t seem to understand where most of global manufacturing happens.
Oh you mean like the rouble that’s the only currency that continues to strengthen agains the dollar? 😂
No, all previous exports will be made to friendly countries which constitute the majority of world’s population. Go read up on BRICS which Russia is a central member of.
China is a big winner from all this to be sure, and I’m personally very happy about that. I think China is a far better run country than Russia, and I’d much rather see China lead the world than western parasites. Russia is paving the way for that.
deleted by creator
In short, demand for Russian energy exports isn’t going anywhere. You’re also making a baseless claim that Russia will not be making more pipelines to the east in the future. Pakistan already asked Russia for a pipeline just last month for example. With manufacturing moving out of Europe, the demand for energy in Asia will grow proportionally, and that energy has the same source.
Your whole premise is nonsense, yet you keep doubling down on it. It’s absolutely amazing that you can’t understand supply and demand mechanics.
Ah, so you’re finally admitting that Europe is more dependent on Russia than the other way around. And following this basic logic it becomes obvious that the longer the trade war goes the worse off Europe will be economically relative to Russia.
Russia releases stats about the economy regularly, which include price increases, wages, and so on.
Meanwhile, you just make stuff up as usual. For example, sanctions on plane spare parts were lifted back in August. So, yeah I don’t see made up stats from Russia.
Huh, Russia exchanges roubles for all kinds currencies with yuan and rupees being two key ones. There’s a whole new financial system forming outside of SWIFT right now. The amount of ignorance on display here is just stunning.
deleted by creator
That’s what makes the price go up. Let me try using small words you might be able to understand. Less supply means higher price. If Russia can’t deliver as much gas it was previously, then the price for the available gas surges because there isn’t enough to meet demand. This is why Russia is making more profit while selling less gas right now. Since demand is high, that means Russia will keep building more pipelines east and increase volumes of sales to meet demand.
You literally just admitted that the economy in Europe is collapsing because essential commodities from Russia have been cut off. Meanwhile, nothing essential in Russia is missing. This is why the effect on Europe is so much more profound.
Seems like aren’t aware of great many things.
It’s pretty hilarious that you think these are the only currencies worth considering, given that all the industry and manufacturing is in Asia. You seems to be under the delusion that 15% of world’s population in the west is still the most important part of the planet. It’s not.