I’ve just had to write an article on this. The lion’s share of the most experienced Ukrainian soldiers seem to be encircled in Mariupol. Once the Russians finish pacifying Mariupol they’re likely to strike out west for Odessa, landlocking Ukraine. One potential end game scenario most commentators consider possible is that Ukraine will be reduced to a rump state, with all the Russian speaking people in the south and east being cobbled together into Russian aligned breakaway republics like Donetsk and Luhansk. This would leave Ukraine greatly diminished in territory and demographic power (~a quarter of Ukraine’s population is ethnically Russian), along with other economically disastrous factors like loss of access to all ports on the black sea, not to mention the loss of important urban centres like Odessa itself.

An important aspect to bear in mind which I think is a strong indicator of which way the wind is blowing is the use of air power in this war. While at first there was a lot of footage of Russian jetss and helicopters flying low to evade Ukrainian air defences and occasionally being shot down by MANPADs it now appears the Russian air force are targeting the Ukrainian rear at Lviv, seemingly with impunity, from far higher altitudes. This suggests to me that Russia has achieved air superiority.