On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft.
Buddy, you should read up some history. In particular, go look up what Russia already went through in the 90s and in 2014. The elephant in the room is that this tactic has never worked once. This has been tried with North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela just to name a few examples. All of them are still around. These are small countries that aren’t even self reliant. If these tactics haven’t worked there, what reason is there to believe they would work in Russia.
It frankly amazes me just how deluded some people are. Do people seriously think Putin managed to stay in power all these years because he’s an irrational fool who makes rash decisions he doesn’t consider the outcomes of. It’s just fantastical to me.
I certainly suspect Putin has surrounded himself with sycophants. That Russian press release where he’s talking down to his defense ministers doesn’t look good. They look like they’re about to piss their pants. “Yes, boss! We’ll roll into Kyiv by the second day, tops!”
This is going to make the 90s Russian bond default look like a joy ride. And Russia is certainly not self reliant. Has the Moscow exchange re-opened yet? Are the trains in Moscow running again without credit card transactions? Putin clearly miscalculated here, both militarily and economically. I don’t see what his exit strategy is here. Neither NK, Iran, nor Venezuela were trying to fund an invasion when sanctioned. He’ll be broke before he can dig his heels in and demand terms. Russia, however, can safe face by ousting him.
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It ceases to exist. With no capital investment companies can’t grow, people have nowhere to invest savings (see the mega-housing bubble in China, as a result of that), and the currency backing it becomes meaningless.
Here, they are just delaying because the open would see a free fall. Judging by the performance of listings for Russian companies on the London exchange, they’d be trading at penny stock levels now.
You certainly sound like you’re living in an invented reality. There is no point arguing with you over this as the reality will become quite clear in the coming months.