A bit of an idealist and fond of empathy.
Can respond in English, Suomi and broken 日本語.
I’ve been absent. Also, I’m going to half ignore your request for non-western sources by concentrating on the Finnish ones with very brief translations or explanations. I was not able to find the main source I was looking for, but this will do for now.
https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12540078 Finnish major general and former chief of intelligence, Pekka Toveri: “Russia dominates by numbers, but Ukraine’s western arsenal is more modern and neither have the resources to solve the situation.”
https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12526593 Toveri: Essentially the same as above, but with various different additional comments.
https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12314941/64-3-94534 Senior researcher at the Finnish National Defence University, Jukka Viitaniemi on the chances of Ukraine getting back southern regions: “Yes, in light of recent events, considering the weapons and aid they’ve received. I would say it’s entirely possible and even probable. I would give it around a 50-70% chance, I can’t say with a 100% that this would happen.”
On the chances of taking back Crimea: “In optimal conditions, yes.”
https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12521889 Swedish Military University docent Ilmari Käihkö: “Most observers agree that both sides will run out of troops over summer.”
https://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/a/b94134db-060b-41ba-8d40-a70d8db559f1 Essentially the same as above, but with a fleshed out interview.
https://www.verkkouutiset.fi/a/asiantuntija-hehkuttaa-himars-jarjestelmaa-ukraina-voi-kaantaa-edun-itselleen/#48cc421d Finnish Military University, Military Professor Marko Palokangas: A lot of praise for the effectiveness of HIMARS.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/07/russia-ukraine-war-update-what-we-know-on-day-134-of-the-invasion I’ve excluded Ukrainian and Russian sources as I mostly ignore them, but it’s worth mentioning they’ve described the HIMAR systems as “game changers”.
https://nitter.it/MarkHertling/status/1551668596803358724#m HIMARS and MLRS differences and why they matter from a former US army officer.
Actually, it is quite a large port-city Mariupol, and a few minor cities like Lisitchansk and SeveroDonetsk. As the result whole territory of LPR is deoccupied from Ukraine (or lost by Ukraine). It is quite a strategic win of Russia, isn’t it?
Correct. My understanding is that the situation in the east is at stalemate in large part due to the new HIMAR systems cutting supply lines. Right now, post-north regains, Ukraine seems to have lost fair bit more than it has gained.
It is not fair to compare “plans” with “gains”. Every side might have big plans, but from military point of view it is better to compare initiative and territorial gains.
This is true, but I believe it gives important and timely context as to why Ukraine could be on the back foot at the moment, and why Yogthos’ knee-jerk doomsday analysis shouldn’t be taken too seriously. They may end up being correct, but I’m going to rely on the Finnish military experts instead which have been accurate in all accounts except calling that Putin wouldn’t invade.
The amount of tanks is about 200, as I’ve heard. It is actually quite a few number, as Ukrain had about 6’500 of them in 1992
There’s no way Ukraine had 6500 properly operational tanks and what you cite is from 1992. 200 simply is substantial. Furthermore, my understanding is that ammunition is what Ukraine lacks for their older weaponry, while Russia has stockpiles upon stockpiles of it.
The word “cultist” actually describes the behavior very well and without any hyperbole. A lot of these same people do their absolute everything to defend China/Russia at every turn and simultaneously support progressive values such as LGBT rights. I’ve been meaning to delve deeper in to the subject of communism-capitalism axis for a while as my knowledge is very shallow, but I can’t imagine cults for authoritarian regimes is all there’s to communism. If anything, the conversation here pushes me away further.
From what I’ve seen, apart from Snake Island, they’ve made small gains at the very edges of the battle line but lost a City at the heart of the eastern battle. From what I’ve read, they’re trying to form a bigger counteroffensive right now and have been urging Ukrainians to evacuate from occupied territories before the real battles commence as it’ll get ugly. They’re also getting another big batch of tanks from Poland.
All the expert opinions I’ve seen have reduced the situation in the east to a stalemate and possible Ukrainian regains in the south. Also, with how much I hear about Ukrainians being very disorganized at the start and with the further lack of any weapons apart from their own, it’s odd to claim the Ukrainian army was at its peak. The Russians seemed to have simply failed miserably trying to take over the entire country quickly.
I think you might not understand Finland’s relationship with NATO. Finland has fostered what’s called our “NATO option”, the chance to step through the door at a moments notice if the security landscape changes rapidly since 2004. We didn’t start talking about NATO when the invasion of Ukraine started, this scenario has been prepared for for decades, even if no one really thought we would use the option. Sweden might have been caught off-guard, but here’s absolutely nothing rash about Finlands decision here, it’s been discussed in tiring lengths.
The Finnish public knows this, and the polls reflect it (80% in favor of joining). The MPs know this and the final vote reflects this (something like 188 - 8 in favor). Finns didn’t want a popular vote, and no vote was arranged. It took a full scale invasion to break the camel’s back, but now the last pieces of taboo topics and finlandization are over.
Oh, and Sweden has agreed, among other things, to extradite people wanted by Turkey for terrorism.
Where is this stated?
Absolutely enormous as far as I can see. The Matrix devs understandably spend a lot of their time on the protocol and backend, so getting more dedicated user client side devs is pretty critical. Most people go to Discord for the features it offers, and Element just progresses really, really slow towards feature parity.
Ban editorialized headlines and random tweets and it’s an improvement already.