I think this makes perfect sense. I don’t really see a Trump conviction on its own having much effect either way, simply because I don’t see why someone would base their decision on a legal conviction for these specific issues. Think about the incredible kind of brain that would require.

You’d have to be someone who would vote for Trump today, knowing everything we already know about him, but who would be swayed if a court found him guilty of a crime. That person either sincerely believes in Trump’s innocence, but would change their mind out of trust in the legal system, or someone who doesn’t care if he’s guilty, but I guess doesn’t like the idea of a convicted felon being president. Both of those people are insane.

The only other option is someone who wouldn’t vote for Trump unless he was a convicted felon. That person is also insane, but I would love to get a look at their substack.

Point being, a legal conviction isn’t likely to have much effect on voter sentiment. The same is true of an acquittal for the same reasoning. The results of these court cases won’t have an effect on the election unless it creates some legal circumstance that blocks Trump from running.