One can argue that this is not necessarily true as there are some examples from France and Japan (and more recently China) that show it can be built in a non-cost prohibitive way. But actual more recent examples from Europe (including later French constructions) were all delayed 10+ years and cost triple or so of the original cost estimates. Again one can argue that this is mostly a result of state-capture and corruption, but it makes it very hard to justify new reactor constructions and I think that is a realistic assessment of how any such project would have gone (wrong) in Germany as well.
This goes back to inability to build any kind of alternative infrastructure be it nuclear or renewables. As you’ve repeatedly pointed out, Merkel’s government sabotaged renewable infrastructure investment as well. It’s possible things may change going forward out of necessity, but so far it seems like things are getting worse as opposed to better.
The difference is that wind and solar managed to reach about 50% of the total electricity production despite being obstructed by the former government and the large traditional power-producers in almost every way possible.
But the bigger problem right now is actually that due to this state-capture / sabotage there are hardly any local producers left (this pre-dates both Covid-19 and the Ukraine war) and the producers that are left in Asia produce the equipment with a significantly more fossil fuel heavy energy mix and require a much longer fossil fuel consuming transport.
Again, it’s misleading to focus strictly on electricity production. Before Germany started rolling nuclear back it was providing 11% of overall energy. Which is comparable to what renewables are currently providing.
It seems to me that similar types of policies prevented mass adoption of nuclear and renewables. And as you point out, importing infrastructure is not really a great solution either.
I don’t see how the problem gets solved until Germany gets a sane and stable government that is willing to do a long term commitment to moving off using fossils.
See my comment further above. The problem is too high costs and construction delays.
One can argue that this is not necessarily true as there are some examples from France and Japan (and more recently China) that show it can be built in a non-cost prohibitive way. But actual more recent examples from Europe (including later French constructions) were all delayed 10+ years and cost triple or so of the original cost estimates. Again one can argue that this is mostly a result of state-capture and corruption, but it makes it very hard to justify new reactor constructions and I think that is a realistic assessment of how any such project would have gone (wrong) in Germany as well.
This goes back to inability to build any kind of alternative infrastructure be it nuclear or renewables. As you’ve repeatedly pointed out, Merkel’s government sabotaged renewable infrastructure investment as well. It’s possible things may change going forward out of necessity, but so far it seems like things are getting worse as opposed to better.
The difference is that wind and solar managed to reach about 50% of the total electricity production despite being obstructed by the former government and the large traditional power-producers in almost every way possible.
But the bigger problem right now is actually that due to this state-capture / sabotage there are hardly any local producers left (this pre-dates both Covid-19 and the Ukraine war) and the producers that are left in Asia produce the equipment with a significantly more fossil fuel heavy energy mix and require a much longer fossil fuel consuming transport.
Again, it’s misleading to focus strictly on electricity production. Before Germany started rolling nuclear back it was providing 11% of overall energy. Which is comparable to what renewables are currently providing.
It seems to me that similar types of policies prevented mass adoption of nuclear and renewables. And as you point out, importing infrastructure is not really a great solution either.
I don’t see how the problem gets solved until Germany gets a sane and stable government that is willing to do a long term commitment to moving off using fossils.