Gaetz has no plan to elect anyone else. He was asked that Directly. This would be a victory if there were a plan to put someone in place and govern, but there is not. If all the right wing wants to do is allow the government to falter, then that is just a waste of time and taxpayer money. My guess is this will hurt the right wing in the long term, but I know, from having lived in the southern US, that some of their constituents want it in the short term.
Is there any stopping the non maga republicans from voting to elect a Democrat as a speaker? If not, wouldn’t the maga republicans be keen to at least keep a Republican as speaker and negotiate a little bit?
Nah, most of them are furious over this. The “freedom caucus”, which is the small group of the most batshit insane MAGA Republicans, did everything they could to cause a shutdown that basically everyone else wanted to avoid. Their goal was to pass a budget as 12 separate bills instead of 1 big one, which would allow them to very easily slash anything they don’t like such as Medicare, Medicaid, social security, the department of education, etc. by simply not passing funding.
I would have imagined a lot more Republicans would be on board with this, but it looks like they’re finally trying to distance themselves from trump and his insane followers. Additionally, the optics from basically forcing a shutdown are very bad, and democrats have been over performing in midterm elections so Rs really can’t afford to take another hit.
Mccarthy only got the speaker seat by making concessions to the craziest people in the house and giving them the power to remove him. They removed him because he did his job and negotiated with democrats to keep the government from shutting down. The next speaker won’t be keen to put their head on the chopping block and make deals with people who will remove them the very second the speaker does something the nutjobs don’t like.
Best case scenario? A few sane Republicans decide they’d rather deal with a democratic speaker than continue to tiptoe around the most radical elements of their party. Unlikely to happen, but the alternative is a repeat of the first time around which took 12 or so votes to actually seat mccarthy.
Good lord. Let’s see if we can break that record this time around.
I’m curious to see whether the Rs tell the freedom caucus to sit down and shut the fuck up or whether a few will threaten to flip and elect a dem speaker, because I highly doubt the next candidate will be willing to make the concessions mccarthy did.
No one has any reason to work with the freedom caucus again. The freedom caucus is completely unwilling to work with anyone else. So Republicans don’t have much of a chance of electing anyone. Democrats almost took a few of those 15 votes. If I remember right there were some Republicans rushing back to vote because Mr Jeffries winning was a possibility.
I don’t think it matters much anyway, democrats have branded this pretty well. Everyone knows its the freedom caucus specifically that pushed for a shut down and are now trying to pull a soft shutdown here. If they can keep anyone from getting elected they can slow things down longer and make everything harder, which is all they really want anyway. Midterms are in what, a month? Chances of this blowing up in their face and costing them seats? Pretty good.
Not really, no - there’s not really any scenario where this ends up with a Speaker who’s significantly to the right of McCarthy, and in fact it seems likely that whoever does come in next will have much less reason to compromise with the far right, because it’s clear after this experience that they’re unreliable partners; better to act maybe 20% more polite to Democrats than McCarthy did and get them to provide the necessary abstentions to defeat a future Motion To Vacate (or the necessary votes to take away the ability for random members to make those motions).
If by enormous victory you mean they’ll get tons of likes on social media, sure.
The thing is, the Speaker defines the agenda of the House, which means so long as the speaker is weak (say, by being beholden to the MAGA coalition) the Republican agenda is not being fulfilled.
Also, so long as the MAGA coalition is seeking to obstuct must-pass bills (such as budgets and raising borrowing limits) the more they risk a shutdown or the new Speaker also reaching across the aisle.
In the latter case, it means the budget bill will be delightfully boring and should include social benefit programs that are already in effect. And it won’t include any anti-LGBT+ riders, since no Democrat will have their name on a bill with that kind of poison pill.
In the former case then the people suffer from the delays during the shutdown. Federal employees are hit pretty hard as well. Military readiness is disrupted. And everyone knows the extremist Republicans did it for identity-war points. This means those officials will lose votes and face a greater likelihood of a substantial primary challenger. It also means Biden will have a better chance of seeing a second term. We remember our shutdowns and resent those responsible. So far, no-one has ever been able to change the narrative.
Non murica here, this situation is not an enormous victory to the right wing and Gaetz group?
Edit: so great explanations, thanks guys, and luck
Depends entirely on if Gaetz and his posse can get whomever they want into place.
Gaetz has no plan to elect anyone else. He was asked that Directly. This would be a victory if there were a plan to put someone in place and govern, but there is not. If all the right wing wants to do is allow the government to falter, then that is just a waste of time and taxpayer money. My guess is this will hurt the right wing in the long term, but I know, from having lived in the southern US, that some of their constituents want it in the short term.
Is there any stopping the non maga republicans from voting to elect a Democrat as a speaker? If not, wouldn’t the maga republicans be keen to at least keep a Republican as speaker and negotiate a little bit?
The fact that they’re partisan hacks.
Indeendent of what succeds, this feels like they showed power and the next speaker should make more concessions to them to not be thrown away.
Nah, most of them are furious over this. The “freedom caucus”, which is the small group of the most batshit insane MAGA Republicans, did everything they could to cause a shutdown that basically everyone else wanted to avoid. Their goal was to pass a budget as 12 separate bills instead of 1 big one, which would allow them to very easily slash anything they don’t like such as Medicare, Medicaid, social security, the department of education, etc. by simply not passing funding.
I would have imagined a lot more Republicans would be on board with this, but it looks like they’re finally trying to distance themselves from trump and his insane followers. Additionally, the optics from basically forcing a shutdown are very bad, and democrats have been over performing in midterm elections so Rs really can’t afford to take another hit.
Mccarthy only got the speaker seat by making concessions to the craziest people in the house and giving them the power to remove him. They removed him because he did his job and negotiated with democrats to keep the government from shutting down. The next speaker won’t be keen to put their head on the chopping block and make deals with people who will remove them the very second the speaker does something the nutjobs don’t like.
Best case scenario? A few sane Republicans decide they’d rather deal with a democratic speaker than continue to tiptoe around the most radical elements of their party. Unlikely to happen, but the alternative is a repeat of the first time around which took 12 or so votes to actually seat mccarthy.
15, it took Mccarthy 15 votes to win that job and only 1 to lose it
Good lord. Let’s see if we can break that record this time around.
I’m curious to see whether the Rs tell the freedom caucus to sit down and shut the fuck up or whether a few will threaten to flip and elect a dem speaker, because I highly doubt the next candidate will be willing to make the concessions mccarthy did.
No one has any reason to work with the freedom caucus again. The freedom caucus is completely unwilling to work with anyone else. So Republicans don’t have much of a chance of electing anyone. Democrats almost took a few of those 15 votes. If I remember right there were some Republicans rushing back to vote because Mr Jeffries winning was a possibility.
I don’t think it matters much anyway, democrats have branded this pretty well. Everyone knows its the freedom caucus specifically that pushed for a shut down and are now trying to pull a soft shutdown here. If they can keep anyone from getting elected they can slow things down longer and make everything harder, which is all they really want anyway. Midterms are in what, a month? Chances of this blowing up in their face and costing them seats? Pretty good.
Not really, no - there’s not really any scenario where this ends up with a Speaker who’s significantly to the right of McCarthy, and in fact it seems likely that whoever does come in next will have much less reason to compromise with the far right, because it’s clear after this experience that they’re unreliable partners; better to act maybe 20% more polite to Democrats than McCarthy did and get them to provide the necessary abstentions to defeat a future Motion To Vacate (or the necessary votes to take away the ability for random members to make those motions).
If by enormous victory you mean they’ll get tons of likes on social media, sure.
The thing is, the Speaker defines the agenda of the House, which means so long as the speaker is weak (say, by being beholden to the MAGA coalition) the Republican agenda is not being fulfilled.
Also, so long as the MAGA coalition is seeking to obstuct must-pass bills (such as budgets and raising borrowing limits) the more they risk a shutdown or the new Speaker also reaching across the aisle.
In the latter case, it means the budget bill will be delightfully boring and should include social benefit programs that are already in effect. And it won’t include any anti-LGBT+ riders, since no Democrat will have their name on a bill with that kind of poison pill.
In the former case then the people suffer from the delays during the shutdown. Federal employees are hit pretty hard as well. Military readiness is disrupted. And everyone knows the extremist Republicans did it for identity-war points. This means those officials will lose votes and face a greater likelihood of a substantial primary challenger. It also means Biden will have a better chance of seeing a second term. We remember our shutdowns and resent those responsible. So far, no-one has ever been able to change the narrative.
I’m not really sure who wins in this
People who enjoy watching the republican party implode.