China's promised "basket of measures" to defuse local government debt risks is likely to include special bond issuance, debt swaps, loan rollovers, and something Beijing really loathes: dipping into the central budget.
But after years of over-investment in infrastructure, plummeting returns from land sales and soaring COVID costs, economists say debt-laden municipalities now represent a major risk to China’s economy.
“The local debt problem is complex so you cannot simply say you don’t want to take responsibility,” said Guo Tianyong, professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, explaining the politburo’s directions.
It is an unsustainable situation that puts Beijing in a bind: provide no help and the economic model unravels with severe consequences on growth and social stability, or step in at the risk of encouraging more reckless spending.
To avoid that risk, the adviser suggested all stakeholders bear some of the burden: financial institutions, local governments, Beijing and society at large.
Most economists expect Beijing to instruct state-owned banks to keep rolling over maturing debt with longer-term loans at lower interest rates, a strategy often referred to as “extend and pretend.”
For many local governments “to keep vital functions you need transfers from Beijing and to develop you need to issue bonds - the central leadership is aware of that,” a source at a state bank told Reuters after a recent work trip to two indebted provinces.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
But after years of over-investment in infrastructure, plummeting returns from land sales and soaring COVID costs, economists say debt-laden municipalities now represent a major risk to China’s economy.
“The local debt problem is complex so you cannot simply say you don’t want to take responsibility,” said Guo Tianyong, professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, explaining the politburo’s directions.
It is an unsustainable situation that puts Beijing in a bind: provide no help and the economic model unravels with severe consequences on growth and social stability, or step in at the risk of encouraging more reckless spending.
To avoid that risk, the adviser suggested all stakeholders bear some of the burden: financial institutions, local governments, Beijing and society at large.
Most economists expect Beijing to instruct state-owned banks to keep rolling over maturing debt with longer-term loans at lower interest rates, a strategy often referred to as “extend and pretend.”
For many local governments “to keep vital functions you need transfers from Beijing and to develop you need to issue bonds - the central leadership is aware of that,” a source at a state bank told Reuters after a recent work trip to two indebted provinces.
I’m a bot and I’m open source!